January 2 - 3 Winter Storm Potential

[Storm At Sea]

Nogaps woah

[mulen]

The trend is your friend quoting the Virginia vigilante see ya.

[NorthShoreWx]

The 1969 Lindsay snowstorm was just barely cold enough for snow and started as rain per Kocin's recollections as a boy in Smithtown Syosset...south of NYC very little snow fell.

 

The Twin Forks of LI were mostly rain.  IIRC, Upton had over a foot, but just 8 miles to their SE, KFOK saw around 3 inches.

Fixed

[Superstorm93]

Nogaps woah

 

Eh. Not too impressive considering that the NAVGEM is usually the more amplified of the bunch. 

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Eh. Not too impressive considering that the NAVGEM is usually the more amplified of the bunch. 

 

nvg10.500.132.namer.gif

 

Doesn't the NOGAPS has its' SE Bias quirks? It's been a while since I've payed close attention to that computer model. 

[Allsnow]

hr 108 low in central indiana…further north then 12z…light over running snow from nyc-north….i don't think this will be a great run...

[Allsnow]

euro cutting this over us…low over pitt

 

 

 

rain from ttn south…sne mod snow

[Allsnow]

hr 129 996 south of long island….temps crash we are all snow…looks a lot like febuary 2013

[Allsnow]

hr 132 ccb love for the area….we ride the line on this run, pulls off just fast enough…i would like to see the primary track further south

[Stormlover74]

hr 132 ccb love for the area….we ride the line on this run, pulls off just fast enough…i would like to see the primary track further south

According to the NE forum, the UKMET has the low in AL, huge difference

[Rjay]

Have yet to see it. Stuck at hr 96 on weatherbell. Sounds good enough to me. I'm not greedy.

[WE GOT HIM]

I like that the GFS is east and Euro is west. Just where I like to be at this point.

[Superstorm93]

According to the NE forum, the UKMET has the low in AL, huge difference

[Rjay]

According to the NE forum, the UKMET has the low in AL, huge difference

Def.. at 108 low is over Indy and moisture is gathering in the gulf

[Stormlover74]

I like that the GFS is east and Euro is west. Just where I like to be at this point.

Yeah but their solutions are very different than just 12 hours earlier meaning they've yet to lock into anything

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The EURO looks good. I'm all in for a SECS to a MECS. A HECS would just be a bonus (Not that I'm saying it will happen). I'm just gonna say that we need to watch this carefully because OTS seems less likely now. 

[Allsnow]

snowmaps have 4-8 from ttn-costal ct…this includes long island 

[IsentropicLift]

This is why I said two days ago that miller b's are more favorable for New England and I got chewed out for it. Someone up that way is going to get absolutely creamed.

[atownwxwatcher]

This run of the 00z ECM was not nearly as impressive as the 12 Z run was... cut snow totals by 50% Shifted into Northern New England the heaviest snows!

[Kaner587]

This is why I said two days ago that miller b's are more favorable for New England and I got chewed out for it. Someone up that way is going to get absolutely creamed.

You're saying this as if today's 00z euro is already etched in stone. No one should prematurely be calling anything yet. Yes miller b's are especially favorable the further NE you go but TTN north and eastward usually do well in big miller b's. Model trends are way more important than individual runs. Tonight's trends can be said to be all over the place at the moment. Comparing to tmrws 12z runs will be helpful

[IsentropicLift]

You're saying this as if today's 00z euro is already etched in stone. No one should prematurely be calling anything yet. Yes miller b's are especially favorable the further NE you go but TTN north and eastward usually do well in big miller b's. Model trends are way more important than individual runs. Tonight's trends can be said to be all over the place at the moment. Comparing to tmrws 12z runs will be helpful

i didn't say anything about a particular solution etched in stone.

[MJO812]

This run of the 00z ECM was not nearly as impressive as the 12 Z run was... cut snow totals by 50% Shifted into Northern New England the heaviest snows!

Yep but many more runs to go.

[IsentropicLift]

00z GGEM ensemble mean sub 988mb south of Long Island.

[jm1220]

This run of the 00z ECM was not nearly as impressive as the 12 Z run was... cut snow totals by 50% Shifted into Northern New England the heaviest snows!

Our 50-50 feature got out of the way too soon. That needs to be in place to ensure a favorable redevelopment in time. Without that, this is an Appalachian or Ohio Valley, and then NNE event. Luckily still quite a ways to go. GFS is still quite suppressed and weak, so a ton can still happen. But a lot is still on the table. Most important feature though is the NAO block.

[Weathergun]

0z Euro ensemble mean now shows an Ohio Valley low transferring at secondary 1008mb low just east of the Delmarva. Between 108hr-120hr. The 850mb 0C line is south of the region. But the 850mb low is still over NW PA/Western NY at 120hr. Then by 132hr, the secondary surface low than bombs out too 994mb, about 150 miles east of Cape Cod. The 850mb temps crash behind it.

[Rjay]

0z Euro ensemble mean now shows an Ohio Valley low transferring at secondary 1008mb low just east of the Delmarva. Between 108hr-120hr. The 850mb 0C line is south of the region. But the 850mb low is still over NW PA/Western NY at 120hr. Then by 132hr, the secondary surface low than bombs out too 994mb, about 150 miles east of Cape Cod. The 850mb temps crash behind it.

You beat me too. Hate seeing the 850mb low in that spot. 850s would stay cold enough froze precip...depending on the surface tho. Wish I had the surface temp depiction (not that it really matters 5 days out.)

[Rjay]

Euro control run (fwiw) tracks a low from central Ind at hr 108 to Pitt at hr 120. Also at hr 120, energy is transferring to a developing low just south of LI and tracks just east of Cape Cod at hr 132.

850s low up to Pitt

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

You beat me too. Hate seeing the 850mb low in that spot. 850s would stay cold enough froze precip...depending on the surface tho. Wish I had the surface temp depiction (not that it really matters 5 days out.)

 

 

Euro control run (fwiw) tracks a low from central Ind at hr 108 to Pitt at hr 120. Also at hr 120, energy is transferring to a developing low just south of LI and tracks just east of Cape Cod at hr 132.

850s low up to Pitt

And, meteorologically, it makes zero sense for a primary to be that strong and that far north given the pattern. This all sounds similar to the GFS from 24 hours ago and does not concern me one bit. Models just playing do-si-do as always.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

ggem is warm

[jm1220]

And, meteorologically, it makes zero sense for a primary to be that strong and that far north given the pattern. This all sounds similar to the GFS from 24 hours ago and does not concern me one bit. Models just playing do-si-do as always.

Look how fast the 50-50 feature moves out. The primary low can cut very far with that. The progressive overall pattern may yet ruin our chances. Without the block as depicted we have no shot-look how fast the S/W and trough is moving into the West. Long way to go but expect just about every outcome, and this block is weaker than the one that produced the 12/26/10 event, with a similarly progressive overall pattern as now. I'd much rather have a Nino pattern than this leftover crap Nina one.