earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 6:21 AM, ace0927 said: actually shocking... what are 2M temps looking like? precip? Thanks in advance. They run a little warm to start but then drop rapidly. 850 temps are almost -20 C over NJ by 114 hours. Whatever it shows doesn't really matter to me...if a 984mb low tracks off the NJ Coast south of LI with a decently good antecedent airmass the only people worrying about precip type are on the se shores of LI, block island, etc. The low goes down to 972mb over the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Shocking? Not really...I suspect that the Euro is diving the vort further south and we are now seeing perfect interaction/phase now. On 12/30/2013 at 6:22 AM, ace0927 said: absolutely shocking (whether it will come to fruition or not...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Fluke run? Why such a radical change, suspect run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 6:21 AM, earthlight said: 972mb over Cape Cod at 114 hours. CCB from Trenton northeastward. I officially did not see that coming. Holy Crap, now we are talking. It really brings all the dynamics together. Something the other models have been having trouble with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 6:23 AM, earthlight said: They run a little warm to start but then drop rapidly. 850 temps are almost -20 C over NJ by 114 hours. Whatever it shows doesn't really matter to me...if a 984mb low tracks off the NJ Coast south of LI with a decently good antecedent airmass the only people worrying about precip type are on the se shores of LI, block island, etc. The low goes down to 972mb over the cape. thanks John....quite the turn of events tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Glad I stayed up and checked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 6:25 AM, jetski09 said: Fluke run? Why such a radical change, suspect run? With the complexity I'm not too surprised. But still lots of things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 6:22 AM, ace0927 said: absolutely shocking (whether it will come to fruition or not...) I wouldn't worry about any kind of mixing with a bombing low like that. If the 850mb low closes off SE of us we should be good, with the redeveloping low. Hopefully we saw the models make it to the northern limit with the primary low and we start going back to the more suppressed solutions from here on out. Still time for changes here. We're probably on pins and needles until the ball drops, if not after. Miller B's always do this to us. High risk, high reward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If allowed, someone needs to post the euro snow map later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I haven't seen the Euro yet...do we know that the 850 mb low transfers SE ? On 12/30/2013 at 6:30 AM, jm1220 said: I wouldn't worry about any kind of mixing with a bombing low like that. If the 850mb low closes off SE of us we should be good, with the redeveloping low. Hopefully we saw the models make it to the northern limit with the primary low and we start going back to the more suppressed solutions from here on out. Still time for changes here. We're probably on pins and needles until the ball drops, if not after. Miller B's always do this to us. High risk, high reward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The trough pretty much taps into the gulf. That thing really digs. That nice little block we have too is still there and in a great spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 6:30 AM, jm1220 said: I wouldn't worry about any kind of mixing with a bombing low like that. If the 850mb low closes off SE of us we should be good, with the redeveloping low. Hopefully we saw the models make it to the northern limit with the primary low and we start going back to the more suppressed solutions from here on out. Still time for changes here. We're probably on pins and needles until the ball drops, if not after. Miller B's always do this to us. High risk, high reward. Yea I am thinking the same thing this wont be a clipper. With a bomb like that dynamic cooling will be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 6:32 AM, Storm At Sea said: I haven't seen the Euro yet...do we know that the 850 mb low transfers SE ? I wouldn't worry about any kind of mixing with a bombing low like that. If the 850mb low closes off SE of us we should be good, with the redeveloping low. Hopefully we saw the models make it to the northern limit with the primary low and we start going back to the more suppressed solutions from here on out. Still time for changes here. We're probably on pins and needles until the ball drops, if not after. Miller B's always do this to us. High risk, high reward. 850 low is on top of NYC at hr 108, over southeast Mass at 114. Surface low actually gets down to 968 over Cape Cod by 114, 979 mb south of MTP at 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Let's not get all worked up again and start talking amounts/etc. The Euro has been wildly inconsistent. So for the sake of everyone's sanity I suggest relaxing, taking this run as an encouraging possibility, and waiting a few more cycles before getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 6:32 AM, yhbrooklyn said: If allowed, someone needs to post the euro snow map later. If i have permission i can post the one from weather bell but i was told before we are not allowed to post them but i have seen tons of people posting them afterwards ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 6:34 AM, RCNYILWX said: 850 low is on top of NYC at hr 108, over southeast Mass at 114. Surface low actually gets down to 968 over Cape Cod by 114, 979 mb south of MTP at 108. It'd tuck just S of there if this synoptic set up verified, I'd bet the house on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Smells like a good ole' fashion dryslot on the Euro for NYC. On 12/30/2013 at 6:34 AM, RCNYILWX said: 850 low is on top of NYC at hr 108, over southeast Mass at 114. Surface low actually gets down to 968 over Cape Cod by 114, 979 mb south of MTP at 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 6:37 AM, Storm At Sea said: Smells like a good ole' fashion dryslot on the Euro for NYC. 850 low is on top of NYC at hr 108, over southeast Mass at 114. Surface low actually gets down to 968 over Cape Cod by 114, 979 mb south of MTP at 108. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The Euro is...wow...impressive Definitely didn't see that coming. Wonder how the 12z will do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 6:35 AM, atownwxwatcher said: If i have permission i can post the one from weather bell but i was told before we are not allowed to post them but i have seen tons of people posting them afterwards ! From what Ian has said you can post snow maps from WXbell but not any of the other maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 6:17 AM, earthlight said: Holy crap, 982mb surface low south of Long Island at 108 hrs. Earplugs ready!!! for some serious old fashioned gas powered snowblowing, if that can verify. Mall piles and banks would be off the hook so to speak. Sounds like a N**o redux... I did not say it this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 6:32 AM, yhbrooklyn said: If allowed, someone needs to post the euro snow map later. Low resolution SV maps: 10-12" for NYC and NJ north of TTN. 12-15" for North NJ, SE NY CT etc into SNE. Amounts get lower east of NYC on LI and father S in NJ. Seems like a coastal front signal is pretty strong. 25+" amounts in a fairly large band in Central New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 6:38 AM, ravensrule said: From what Ian has said you can post snow maps from WXbell but not any of the other maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hopefully we can get the primary to adjust further south in future runs because right now the setup remains very fragile for us. There's far more wiggle room for SNE than around here. I've seen people throw out the Lindsay storm of 1969, any similarities to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 6:39 AM, earthlight said: Low resolution SV maps:10-12" for NYC and NJ north of TTN. 12-15" for North NJ, SE NY CT etc into SNE. Amounts get lower east of NYC on LI and father S in NJ. Seems like a coastal front signal is pretty strong.25+" amounts in a fairly large band in Central New England.Philly northern burbs? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 6:41 AM, snowwors2 said: Philly northern burbs? Thanks! Looking at the map posted above it looks like you do well, but the Wxbell maps are always overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nice... euro went from 1-3 this afternoon to 12-15 for my area. And still 4 days away? long week ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 6:42 AM, ravensrule said: Looking at the map posted above it looks like you do well, but the Wxbell maps are always overdone. Actually this time the SV maps appear to have higher amounts of snow esp into New England probably due to very high ratio snow as temps are in the single digits and up there and even teens for us as snow is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Taken verbatim, which is silly this far out, but for NYC and western LI, this run of the Euro is sleet or ice to a raging snowstorm. Big cold air damming signal from the high to the north that doesn't budge, keeping winds north of east throughout. For eastern LI, probably rain to heavy snow. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If this dug a tiny bit more, it would be a behemoth of a storm for us. (Gonna pray that this trend takes hold with the other models) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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