January 2 - 3 Winter Storm Potential

[NEG NAO]

To start off this thread HPC has about 0.25 qpf forecasted for NYC Metro with cold enough surface and aloft for mainly frozen at the moment

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif

[Weathergun]

The 0z Euro Ensemble mean was further west than op. Total qpf on the mean .25"+ for much of the area. Models are struggling with +PNA pattern out west and the evolution of the PV. Best to go with ensemble means at this point..:

[mranger48]

I have a quick question…i know its 1 model run, but trying to learn here - does the 6z gfs indicate a weak area of low pressure creating over running snows transferring to a coastal? I don't recall the GFS showing this before, but like I said…learning.  If that is the case, this could be a bigger storm than we first thought if the gulf is open for business? Thanks for your input guys

[bluewave]

The 0z Euro Ensemble mean was further west than op. Total qpf on the mean .25"+ for much of the area. Models are struggling with +PNA pattern out west and the evolution of the PV. Best to go with ensemble means at this point..:

 

That PV near Newfoundland keeps the trough positive tilt here so we are on the NW edge of the snow. We need later

runs to scoot the PV out faster so the low can inch closer to the coast. This event should have 15 to 18 to 1 ratios

with the Arctic airmass in place.

 

[Weathergun]

That PV near Newfoundland keeps the trough positive tilt here so we are on the NW edge of the snow. We need later

runs to scoot the PV out faster so the low can inch closer to the coast. This event should have 15 to 18 to 1 ratios

with the Arctic airmass in place.

 

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_168.gif

 

I think the PV position before this storm fine. The 0z Euro showed weaker,smaller PV than at 12z yesterday. The stronger/larger PV suppressed the heights along East coast on yesterday:

 

0z today:

 

 

12z:

 

[bluewave]

I think the PV position before this storm fine. The 0z Euro showed weaker,smaller PV than at 12z yesterday. The stronger/larger PV suppressed the heights along East coast on yesterday:

 

0z today:

 

 

12z:

 

 

It's still positive tilt on the 0Z run and that's why the storm is too far east for us. We need later runs to get it out of the

way so the SE Ridge can build enough so this low track closer to the BM. But there was improvement from

the run yesterday. Notice how the PV shifted more NE on the 0z run from 12z yesterday allowing more

ridging along the East Coast. Maybe the fact that the block is so weak could allow the PV to slip even

further east in later runs. Since we don't have a 2-7-10 style block depressing the PV and confluence

zone into our region, this may allow a closer to the coast track than is currently being modeled.

[NEG NAO]

The 6Z GFS has about 0.50 qpf for this event with higher then 10:1 ratio's with falling temps into the teens during the storm which will lead to Winter Storm Warning conditions around NYC Metro over 6 inches of all snow - no mixing issues with this event lets see how consistent the GFS is in future runs...the good thing is this event is less then 5 days away with precip on this run beginning at hour 114

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

[SnowGoose69]

The NOGAPS rule which has been working well this year strongly suggests the 00Z GFS was clueless and the 00Z Op euro was probably a bit too far SE, the NOGAPS more or less matched the Euro which almost certainly when you compile all the guidance and ensembles right now likely means the system would end up further NW than the 00Z Op Euro showed.

[Weathergun]

It's still positive tilt on the 0Z run and that's why the storm is too far east for us. We need later runs to get it out of the

way so the SE Ridge can build enough so this low track closer to the BM. But there was improvement from

the run yesterday. Notice how the PV shifted more NE on the 0z run from 12z yesterday allowing more

ridging along the East Coast. Maybe the fact that the block is so weak could allow the PV to slip even

further east in later runs. Since we don't have a 2-7-10 style block depressing the PV and confluence

zone into our region, this may allow a closer to the coast track than is currently being modeled.

 

It's fast flow/collapsing ridge out West is helping to keep trough less amplified. But it's all connected to the weak ridge over Greenland/Davis Strait.

 

[NEG NAO]

looking at the new indicies forecast all 3 appear to be just about very close to neutral for Jan 2-3

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

[REDMK6GLI]

this threat is starting look mighty tasty. I expect more moisture-laden closer to the coast runs this weekend with the current trends

[NEG NAO]

this threat is starting look mighty tasty. I expect more moisture-laden closer to the coast runs this weekend with the current trends

one of the analogs for this event is 12/08/1989 - lets hope that one does not verify since I remember that one well the accumulating snow only made it up to central NJ at the time I was working in southern monmouth county and living in northern ocean county and we received several inches down there but much less in NYC Metro proper........

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&dt=1989120800

 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1989/12/8/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

[EasternLI]

this threat is starting look mighty tasty. I expect more moisture-laden closer to the coast runs this weekend with the current trends

 

Agree. This one might have legs. Hopefully those legs don't want to run OTS.

[bluewave]

Agree. This one might have legs. Hopefully those legs don't want to run OTS.

 

You may be in the best spot out east closest to the storm for this one as the Arctic high will prevent any mixing issues even for MTP.

[REDMK6GLI]

You may be in the best spot out east closest to the storm for this one as the Arctic high will prevent any mixing issues even for MTP.

 don't forget about me bluewave im on LI as well  im looking forward to maybe being one of the few times that I beat earthlight land in snowfall during a storm!

[mob1]

don't forget about me bluewave im on LI as well im looking forward to maybe being one of the few times that I beat earthlight land in snowfall during a storm!

I'm pretty sure you beat him last February.

[uncle W]

one of the analogs for this event is 12/08/1989 - lets hope that one does not verify since I remember that one well the accumulating snow only made it up to central NJ at the time I was working in southern monmouth county and living in northern ocean county and we received several inches down there but much less in NYC Metro proper........

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&dt=1989120800

 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1989/12/8/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

I got a half inch from that event in southern Brooklyn...I don't recall snow being in the forecast that day?...I think it was sort of a surprise...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/22589-todays-almanac/page-24

[EasternLI]

You may be in the best spot out east closest to the storm for this one as the Arctic high will prevent any mixing issues even for MTP.

 

Yea, def has the best potential so far this season. 

 

 don't forget about me bluewave im on LI as well  im looking forward to maybe being one of the few times that I beat earthlight land in snowfall during a storm!

 

I hope everyone sees snow, spread the love. Just nice to see a legit threat, and not at day 10

[uncle W]

It's a toss up at this point in time whether we get snow or mixed precipitation in the city...the mix would come after some snow accumulation...TWT...

[PB GFI]

It's a toss up at this point in time whether we get snow or mixed precipitation in the city...the mix would come after some snow accumulation...TWT...

Temps are in the mid teens at 144 hours. It may evolve to that , but right now it's snow or no.

[REDMK6GLI]

I'm pretty sure you beat him last February.

 

yea but before then It always seemed the mega bands during our big snowstorms the past couple years had a fetish for quenching Earthlights thirst of seeing intense snowfall and thundersnow. remember so many posts saying "its pouring snow now!" or "I got thundersnow" etc.  don't get me wrong love reading his forecasts, analysis and is very informative to amatuers like me. im just poking fun

[mob1]

yea but before then It always seemed the mega bands during our big snowstorms the past couple years had a fetish for quenching Earthlights thirst of seeing intense snowfall and thundersnow. remember so many posts saying "its pouring snow now!" or "I got thundersnow" etc. don't get me wrong love reading his forecasts, analysis and is very informative to amatuers like me. im just poking fun

Yeah, I think he pulled in 30 inches during the boxing day blizzard, a number that's still on my bucket list. Now regarding this storm, I'd be very happy with a nice drawn out light snow event with decent ratios. We'll see how things evolve over the next few days.

[REDMK6GLI]

Yeah, I think he pulled in 30 inches during the boxing day blizzard, a number that's still on my bucket list. Now regarding this storm, I'd be very happy with a nice drawn out light snow event with decent ratios. We'll see how things evolve over the next few days.

yea that's the storm that REALLY spurred my envy and jealousy with all the convective action he gets year round, 30 inches while I got a "measly" 18 inches  . He's probably going to read this and have a great laugh this weekend.

[WintersGrasp]

On the GFS so far this looks like a light to moderate snow event for 12 hours....2-5"....with another threat on Sunday? Another 2-5" very nice pattern clearly

[NEG NAO]

It's a toss up at this point in time whether we get snow or mixed precipitation in the city...the mix would come after some snow accumulation...TWT...

wouldn't that mean the track of the storm would be close to the coast for that to happen ? Which model is showing this ?

[+SNfreak21]

The fact that this Sunday's storm will come straight out of the gulf is a promising sign for the 1/3 event IMO. If we can get a good positioned arctic high (we have that, since some people are worried about suppression), and a very robust southern stream energy with a clipper diving south we could get good snows

[Heisy]

Models are funny, yesterday GFS was showing the storm & EURO had nada, now they have flipped. I will say this, that 500mb map on the 144 hr EURO is drool worthy...If it shows it again at 12z with a bit more negative tilt I'll start to get very excited. 

[bluewave]

 don't forget about me bluewave im on LI as well  im looking forward to maybe being one of the few times that I beat earthlight land in snowfall during a storm!

 

I wish that I was out in your area last February as I only got the consolation prize here in Western Nassau.

[Metsfan]

Models are funny, yesterday GFS was showing the storm & EURO had nada, now they have flipped. I will say this, that 500mb map on the 144 hr EURO is drool worthy...If it shows it again at 12z with a bit more negative tilt I'll start to get very excited. 

Just need a touch more interaction with the northern stream energy. It will be tough in this fast flow pattern, but we'll see if 12z gfs/euro does that.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Hope I'm allowed to post this here but DT says this is only a mid-atlantic storm and won't really affect phl and nyc. Hopefully he's off base but he's had the hot hand lately.