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Forecasting contest - week of Dec 28 to Jan 3


beavis1729

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Here are the numbers so far.  Tomorrow morning may be nearly as cold as this morning...but not sure if these "peak" numbers will get any colder.

INL - lowest temp..................................-37 (between midnight and 6AM on 12/30)
INL - lowest wind chill.............................-45 (9 PM on 12/29:  temp -29, SW wind @ 5 mph)
Statewide in MN - lowest temp................-40 (at Embarrass, 6 AM on 12/30)
Statewide in MN - lowest wind chill...........-47 (at Flag Island, during the morning of 12/29:  temp -26, NW wind @ 9 mph)
 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dlh&storyid=99190&source=0

 

If these numbers stay the same, Stebo will be the winner with a total departure of 4.  If it gets a bit colder tonight, then Brewers and mnweather may be in the running. 

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Here are the numbers so far.  Tomorrow morning may be nearly as cold as this morning...but not sure if these "peak" numbers will get any colder.

INL - lowest temp..................................-37 (between midnight and 6AM on 12/30)

INL - lowest wind chill.............................-45 (9 PM on 12/29:  temp -29, SW wind @ 5 mph)

Statewide in MN - lowest temp................-40 (at Embarrass, 6 AM on 12/30)

Statewide in MN - lowest wind chill...........-47 (at Flag Island, during the morning of 12/29:  temp -26, NW wind @ 9 mph)

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dlh&storyid=99190&source=0

 

If these numbers stay the same, Stebo will be the winner with a total departure of 4.  If it gets a bit colder tonight, then Brewers and mnweather may be in the running. 

 

So far, everyone went too cold with the lowest wind chill. 

 

 

Checking the Grand Forks forecast office I see Bagely MN reported a wind chill of -53

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=fgf&product=pns&issuedby=FGF&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

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Checking the Grand Forks forecast office I see Bagely MN reported a wind chill of -53

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=fgf&product=pns&issuedby=FGF&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

 

Nice catch.  I forgot that Grand Forks has coverage for NW MN.

 

Here are the updated numbers:

 

INL - lowest temp..................................-37 (between midnight and 6AM on 12/30)

INL - lowest wind chill.............................-45 (9 PM on 12/29:  temp -29, SW wind @ 5 mph)

Statewide in MN - lowest temp................-40 (at Embarrass, 6 AM on 12/30)

Statewide in MN - lowest wind chill...........-53 (at Bagley, during the morning of 12/29)

 

Stebo and mnweather are now tied, with a total departure of 4.

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Updated numbers:

 

INL - lowest temp..................................-37 (during the morning of 12/30)
INL - lowest wind chill.............................-49 (11 PM on 12/30:  temp -33, W wind @ 5 mph)
Statewide in MN - lowest temp................-43 (at Embarrass, during the morning of 12/31) :guitar: 
Statewide in MN - lowest wind chill...........-53 (at Bagley, during the morning of 12/29)
 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dlh/StormSummaries/2013/cold/Dec31Temps2.PNG

 

Here are the leaders at this point:

 

(1) Hailcore - total departure of 3

(2) cyclone77 - total departure of 4

(3) mnweather - total departure of 5
 

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Yeah, good times!  Babbitt hit -47 also.

 

INL - lowest temp..................................-42 (during the morning of 1/2)
INL - lowest wind chill.............................-49 (11 PM on 12/30:  temp -33, W wind @ 5 mph)
Statewide in MN - lowest temp................-47 (at Embarrass and Babbitt, during the morning of 1/2) :guitar: 
Statewide in MN - lowest wind chill...........-53 (at Ely, 7 AM on 12/31:  temp -36, W wind @ 5 mph)
 

 

Here are the leaders at this point!  These should be the final standings, unless there is an intrahour bump somewhere this morning that I missed.

 

(1) OHweather - total departure of 3

(2 tie) Roger Smith - total departure of 8

(2 tie) Hailcore - total departure of 8

(2 tie) Chicago WX - total departure of 8 

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INL actually hit -43 this morning, intra-hour.

 

INL - lowest temp..................................-43 (during the morning of 1/2)
INL - lowest wind chill.............................-49 (11 PM on 12/30:  temp -33, W wind @ 5 mph)
Statewide in MN - lowest temp................-47 (at Embarrass and Babbitt, during the morning of 1/2)
Statewide in MN - lowest wind chill...........-53 (at Ely, 7 AM on 12/31:  temp -36, W wind @ 5 mph)

 

Here are the final standings...congrats OHweather!

 

(1) OHweather - total departure of 4

(2 tie) Roger Smith - total departure of 9

(2 tie) Hailcore - total departure of 9

(2 tie) Chicago WX - total departure of 9 

 

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I'm quite happy with my forecast.  INL busted me by 4° last night, went with -39 for the forecast low it got down to -43, wind chill I went with -48,  it got to -49°, busted by 1°.  State low temp I nailed at -47°.  I went high with the wind chill at -60 state wide to try and win the contest.  Oh well it was fun to watch.

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