Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 the wxbell ones are disgusting. 24" at PVC. LOL This includes tomorrow, looks like what Jerry just said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 But the euro is as usual holding a ton of energy back in the late panels so we may be seeing a cooler trend for the longer range starting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 really do wish this was even inside of 4 days. having it 5-6 days out it is still in the "could-be-gone-completely-on-next-run" time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The consistency of the Euro is breathtaking Ncep must have sent some programming interns over there this year. Euro...meh...wasn't it basically tumbleweed dry with this system at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well, we know it is going to change... For one - duh - it's a D6 panel. Even the mighty Europe sells crap beyond D5 and particularly beginning in the D6 time range. But even even beyond that, the SFC resolution appears over-done for a trough that is neutral tilt, with even a little positive tilted bias to its southern component. Having said that .. I am higher confidence of SOMEthing happening during that time frame, based upon larger scale parameters/fluxes and the heretofore trends combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 really do wish this was even inside of 4 days. having it 5-6 days out it is still in the "could-be-gone-completely-on-next-run" time frame Yeah this time frame is still useless as far as deterministic outcomes go....00z tonight could be back to CAA and flurries, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Posterity sake. f144.gif Exactly where we want it 5.5 days out........oh, wait a minute...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Ncep must have sent some programming interns over there this year. Euro...meh...wasn't it basically tumbleweed dry with this system at this range? If you mean tomorrow the euro was first to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Ice storm in the extended, too... ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Ice storm in the extended, too... ha Yea tell me this isn"t a 94 pattern, I don"t care what others think, lived it breathed it. Look at the reload too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yea tell me this isn"t a 94 pattern, I don"t care what others think, lived it breathed it. Look at the reload too. Well notice what it is doing. The ridging is all further east. If the trough dug like the GFS had, it's Parakeets and Pelicans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Not with that high where it is We heard that logic before Christmas and it rained all the way to Canada...strong enough shortwave can pretty much go where it wants on the east coast with no real blocking off to our NE. I do like how systems this season haven't really become more suppressed in the lead up times, so I'd feel pretty good that if there's a storm it's not going to be way south. Some seasons everything seems to go south as we lead up to hour zero, this year we've been getting the ticks the other way. Just some positives to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 We heard that logic before Christmas and it rained all the way to Canada...strong enough shortwave can pretty much go where it wants on the east coast with no real blocking off to our NE. I do like how systems this season haven't really become more suppressed in the lead up times, so I'd feel pretty good that if there's a storm it's not going to be way south. Some seasons everything seems to go south as we lead up to hour zero, this year we've been getting the ticks the other way. Just some positives to think about. Highs don't really dictate stormtrack either. Maybe a strong high forces a low to go over SE MA instead of ORH, but overall that logic is flawed to a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well notice what it is doing. The ridging is all further east. If the trough dug like the GFS had, it's Parakeets and Pelicans. I like the Ensemble look. the MJO look, the EPO look, doesn"t mean cutters don't happen but I like the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 PV shifted east this run which allows primary to come farther n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yea tell me this isn"t a 94 pattern, I don"t care what others think, lived it breathed it. Look at the reload too. Course, it is going to be tough to verify a phase 7 MJO in a 1994 January ... just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 nice Euro run, let's hold that for 5 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 About half the 12z GFS ensemble members look similar to this on D4/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Course, it is going to be tough to verify a phase 7 MJO in a 1994 January ... just sayin' check out the Euro NH 5h map for comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This seems like a scenario which it could just as easily be out to sea and slide to the south of the region. I'm not buying the EURO just yet, but its something we need to keep in mind, and yes I know it showed a monster, but so did the GGEM. Right now if consistency pays off towards Day 3.5 and we are in NAM range and the EURO still has a major snowstorm for all of New England, than I will start believing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 You guys have to stop throwing around 1994. Good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 check out the Euro NH 5h map for comparison It does bear some similarities to where we have been ... not sure so much as to where we are going, though. My point before was that a Phase 7 correlated pattern tends to emerge the -NAO phase state, so that sort of buck trends. Heh, who cares -- if one is into this for winter than you're looking good either way. I do like the -EPO look that's regardless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 You guys have to stop throwing around 1994. Good lord. Lol annnywho.... Where do you guys go to run those analog products... I'm asking, because about 1/3 of the 12z GFS members look eerily similar to 1994 .... J/K ... Jan 7/8, 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This seems like a scenario which it could just as easily be out to sea and slide to the south of the region. I'm not buying the EURO just yet, but its something we need to keep in mind, and yes I know it showed a monster, but so did the GGEM. Right now if consistency pays off towards Day 3.5 and we are in NAM range and the EURO still has a major snowstorm for all of New England, than I will start believing.So you mean when we're already 6hrs into the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 So you mean when we're already 6hrs into the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'm obviously kidding, but man I wish that was 2 days out, not 5.5. If that holds and we get screwed down here, either you or Jerry need to prep the guest room for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I wonder if DT thinks the euro op is an outlier now that the ensembles are out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 If that holds and we get screwed down here, either you or Jerry need to prep the guest room for me. I could use help changing diapers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Randy there is a lot of time left for both areas to have not so nice solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 I wonder if DT thinks the euro op is an outlier now that the ensembles are out.We chuck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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