CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I may have to stay in nh to thur nite if this is too amp'd I wish I knew what it was like to travel and give massages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I wish I knew what it was like to travel and give massages. puts on his spandex...leads a zumba class...then off to 3500' to catch flakes on his tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 puts on his spandex...leads a zumba class...then off to 3500' to catch flakes on his tongue. You forgot shirtless with an umbrella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 You forgot shirtless with an umbrella. oh yeah...forgot about that. Pickles Poppins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 GEFS still offshore but are better than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 GEFS still offshore but are better than 6z. Yeah as long as those contours keep shifting west..we know it's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 GGEM has a meridional bias in the middle range that goes beyond all others, and the pail ... Having said that, yeah, the signal has been in there for days, and there are broader indications supporting to some degree. Last night ... the CDC showed about a +2SD worth of PNA spike (it had abolished the signal for a day, yesterday, but as Scott and I discussed that may have been a falsity) leading up to the 3rd, so that dies supply perhaps a vague Archembaultian type deal to that era of time. Cisco down at NCEP seems to really like the idea. I won't bother to cut and paste the discussion but it amts to his citing the meridional flow, intense cold into the GL-NE, and then the less than certain snow event from DCA to BOS next Thursday/Friday. One thing I find interesting is that when the GFS drops this event in a given cycle, it doesn't drop it entirely -- it's always got some vestigial system remaining on the chart as it's "non-run." But when it comes back, like it did on the 18z yesterday, it brings a major hammer. That all might indicate that there is some physical presence in the flow that is less than mutable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 GGEM has a meridional bias in the middle range that goes beyond all others, and the pail ... Having said that, yeah, the signal has been in there for days, and there are broader indications supporting to some degree. Last night ... the CDC showed about a +2SD worth of PNA spike (it had abolished the signal for a day, yesterday, but as Scott and I discussed it may have been a falsity) leading up to the 3rd, so that dies supply perhaps a vague Archembaultian type deal to that era of time. Cisco down at NCEP seems to really like the. I won't bother to cut and paste the discussion but it amts to his citing the meridional flow, intense cold into the GL-NE, and then the less than certain snow event from DCA to BOS next Thursday/Friday. One thing I find interesting is that when the GFS drops this event in a given cycle, it doesn't drop it entirely -- it's always got some vestigial system remaining on the chart as it's "non-run." But when it comes back, like it did on the 18z yesterday, it brings a major hammer. That all might indicate that there is some physical presence in the flow that is less than mutable. I know you know this...but part of these fluctuations are the models showing either progression or retrogression of the ridge. IOW it's still there..just shifting around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I know you know this...but part of these fluctuations are the models showing either progression or retrogression of the ridge. IOW it's still there..just shifting around. Yeah I just didn't go that deeply ... but I am also wondering if the slowly emerging MJO into phase 7 is causing some stress on the Pac circulation (at least in the modeling...). It's unusual to take a feature that encompasses that much of the mass field and then willy-nilly it all over the place. Usually the L/W features are relatively immovable compared to the variance with handling the shorter wave-scaled features in the flow. I can understand the PNA varying, nightly, by perhaps a fraction of an SD ( .25, .75, etc...), but not 2! The PNA is a huge domain space. 2 SD is a lot of mass. Anywho, it is what is... Here is the MJO as it [apparently] prepares to awaken from its coma... What started out as a few member yesterday, is now actually demonstrated in the mean, as it appears to charge headlong toward phase 7... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 cmc (and to less extent GFS) kind of tosses a wrench in the idea of a bitterly cold week. cold...but not nearly as bad as it could be with that air mass near by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 spread amongst the gfs ens is still huge. a few complete whiffs...a cutter...a blizzard...a few modest snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 spread amongst the gfs ens is still huge. a few complete whiffs...a cutter...a blizzard...a few modest snow events. Seems to me modest with mostly overrunning qpf is the way to go. That's my sense based on life experience but not much else...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 spread amongst the gfs ens is still huge. a few complete whiffs...a cutter...a blizzard...a few modest snow events. P008 ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Seems to me modest with mostly overrunning qpf is the way to go. That's my sense based on life experience but not much else...lol. other thing is...still really far out so not too surprising to see spread. but,sometimes we see strong agreement even at big lead times which gives greater confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 spread amongst the gfs ens is still huge. a few complete whiffs...a cutter...a blizzard...a few modest snow events. Take the blizzard and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I think the 12z Euro might be a little more interested this run for thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 lol...just a slight shift on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro is a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This run was initialized in King James' basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Wait until James sees this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This run was initialized in King James' basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 1-2 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro is a biggie. ya think? backside energy diving in looks huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Bomb, Wow, where do i sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 dear lord. that would be sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well it's downhill from Here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 120h panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 Tim Kelly FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well it's downhill from Here. was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 what a classic look though. damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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