moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well I agree James. What was the recent system that everyone was saying the cold high couldn't get moved out of the way and yet the low managed to cut and we got (or mostly got) rain in the end? I kept thinking of quint in Jaws saying "he can't go down with three barrels on him.! Not with three he can't!". And we all remember how that worked out for Quint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 Potentially epic first half of January looks to begin epically frustrating to me right now. Thread-the-needle hosing, followed by an overbearing PV. Tasty. Take a break and come back Wednesday when you're under a wsw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Potentially epic first half of January looks to begin epically frustrating to me right now. Thread-the-needle hosing, followed by an overbearing PV. Tasty. I wouldn't get worked up quite yet. I wouldn't forecast in out to sea storm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 What was the recent system that everyone was saying the cold high couldn't get moved out of the way and yet the low managed to cut and we got (or mostly got) rain in the end? I kept thinking of quint in Jaws saying "he can't go down with three barrels on him.! Not with three he can't!". And we all remember how that worked out for Quint. We didn't have a Polar Vortex low acting like a block in the way during that last rainstorm. Therefore the high had no support. This time there is almost a pseudo block in the form of some ridging in Greenland and a low near the 50/50 position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 What was the recent system that everyone was saying the cold high couldn't get moved out of the way and yet the low managed to cut and we got (or mostly got) rain in the end? I kept thinking of quint in Jaws saying "he can't go down with three barrels on him.! Not with three he can't!". And we all remember how that worked out for Quint. different "pattern". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Polar Vortex split will likely give way to a 50/50 low in position for a semi block as some form of ridging develops over Greenland over the next 96 hours, keeping the PV over the 50/50 position and allowing the PV to split into the trough blowing up the clipper over the western Atlantic ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 There's almost a semi block developing near Greenland, and especially with the PV location. It acts like a 50/50 low block suppressing this system. I also thought yesterday this wouldn't be a mid Atlantic storm, I could be wrong, but I think this is a clipper like storm with a suppressed southern stream system. The acting pv as a 50/50 is transient. If it lifts quicker this can barell inland. Obv if its not as quick, its supressed. I hate timing sensitive events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I wouldn't get worked up quite yet. I wouldn't forecast in out to sea storm right now. days and days away. the problem with quieter stretches - storm tracking starts 7-10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 days and days away. the problem with quieter stretches - storm tracking starts 7-10 days out This is now a 5 day event. Well it starts in the Midwest by day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 days and days away. the problem with quieter stretches - storm tracking starts 7-10 days out I know...antsy pants for some, but I can't blame them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I know...antsy pants for some, but I can't blame them. I just would like to track a good sized storm, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 I know...antsy pants for some, but I can't blame them.Gun pointed at fanny.. Do we get SOME snow from it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I don't blame anyone for getting Ansy. It's getting to be that time if year where we want to produce, and tensions will rise if we do not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Gun pointed at fanny.. Do we get SOME snow from it? Better than pointing at head. I think we see some snow in a part of SNE. I know that sounds vague, but it's impossible to nail down. If I had to guess..maybe SE MA has the best chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 For a change, the further south and east you are may help you here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 For a change, the further south and east you are may help you here I hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 I think we'll see this come all the way back to give Freak snow. Gut sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 It doesn't need much of an adjustment to come back further northwest. Best guess is the semi block that develops will be enough to allow a phase near the 40/70 benchmark and hammer eastern New England with heavy snow, that is my gut telling me, not my hypester mentality. Not hype here, just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 And AWT, the euro cutoff was BS on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 And AWT, the euro cutoff was BS on the 12z run. Totally agree. NAM has an actual blocking pattern developing over the North Atlantic Ocean, Greenland has a ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Although its at the long range of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 Sit back and watch PV retreat each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I gave my thoughts late yesterday and I see no reason to stray yet. Prolonged nature due to multiple impulses throughing bursts of qpf. We don't want a big wound up storm or mpm will become mr prophecy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 A block might actually allow the best of both worlds happen, an east of Cape Cod, MA track and a cold and snowy situation, a phased storm that brings all snow while ACK turns to rain for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 That's the best case scenario, but only 2% chance of occurring at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro ensemble precip probs are actually decent for a storm that far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I gave my thoughts late yesterday and I see no reason to stray yet. Prolonged nature due to multiple impulses throughing bursts of qpf. We don't want a big wound up storm or mpm will become mr prophecy. I agree Jerry, snow scene in a cold environment. So many people want blockbusters all the time, the rarity of those is very much misunderstood. I will take a 2-4, any day, I also love it when we get long periods of light to moderate snow. Looking forward to a great January. Keep it real people and enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 It doesn't need much of an adjustment to come back further northwest. Best guess is the semi block that develops will be enough to allow a phase near the 40/70 benchmark and hammer eastern New England with heavy snow, that is my gut telling me, not my hypester mentality. Not hype here, just my opinion. sloooooowwww down. take a deep breath and realize it is Saturday. We are talking about a system in the Wed-Fri timeframe. the set-up is far from perfect so there's no reason to expect all that much right now. potential vs expectation...need to keep those things separate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 sloooooowwww down. take a deep breath and realize it is Saturday. We are talking about a system in the Wed-Fri timeframe. the set-up is far from perfect so there's no reason to expect all that much right now. potential vs expectation...need to keep those things separate. I understand the setup is far from perfect, especially with the intricacies of a polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I think many would approve of this GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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