Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 EC ensembles a 50-75 miles shift south. So not quite "wipe yo' azz and toss" typ stuff? So approx where do we have the mean slp track on them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Let's stop the trend. I'm hearing it is close to or slightly closer in vs the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nice welcoming back to SNE on Friday 1/3/14. Calling for 50% chance of SN on Friday at FMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 A lot of worrying over nothing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 So not quite "wipe yo' azz and toss" typ stuff? So approx where do we have the mean slp track on them? They are a little more progressive to. Basically from east of Wallops island at hr 90 to near 39/70 at hr 96 and then NE from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Let's stop the trend. I'm hearing it is close to or slightly closer in vs the op? No it is south of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Danbury/Naugatuck WX @danburyweather9m Euro ensembles overall no major changes. Slightly further southeast and colder, also with less precipitation than 00z Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'd rather see spring start tonight, then another sw CT jackpot. It would be more like SE MA the way this storm is oriented. And regardless, it has like a half inch of QPF up to like Mt. Washington on the mean. I think people need to understand the model spread in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 A lot of worrying over nothing lol CNE has some worry, CT, RI and Eastern MA should be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 EC ensembles a 50-75 miles shift south. Decent shift from 0z. mslp doesnt look too far se the op. But obviously weaker and like 6 hours faster than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm concerned, lot of runs to continue trending 50 miles at a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro ens have accumulating snow to the Canadian boider I just read. drain the water out of the tub folks I know, I already saw them, Just play along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The track actually is close to the op, but like 6 hrs faster. Now that I look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 CNE has some worry, CT, RI and Eastern MA should be ok. Well if they're "worried" about getting 3-6 or 4-8 of fluff then I feel sorry for them. Everyone is so focused on the low track. I've honestly never seen anything like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Let's stop the trend. I'm hearing it is close to or slightly closer in vs the op?oddly I read the same, seems better than the OP, oh well tomorrow is the real go day. It's going to snow. I started out being happy with accumulating snow and will stay that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Its been a great start overall, that's for sure. I'm not quite at 30 yet for the season, but unless we completely whiff on Thursday's, I should hit it (or come close). Much of that is indeed gone, but I have managed to hold onto a few inches of snowcover following last week's "torch"/rain event. I was just far enough north to avoid the temporary spike in temps that many in ENY had (I stayed in the 30's throughout). This is true...the virga is kind of an 'academic point' as they say because the first 5/6 hours of that event was fairly light snow anyway. My final was 13" Wit last night's 3.5" I'm now at 31.6" for the season. Too bad 90% of that went down the gutter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 They are a little more progressive to. Basically from east of Wallops island at hr 90 to near 39/70 at hr 96 and then NE from there. Thanks. That's not a bad track for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You guys need to hold off on the toaster baths. 4 days out....the same ish happened in Feb and in 2011. Just hold off. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Its still a very nice hit despite the trends. weenie snow maps 4" line is mason dixon to powderfreak (4-8 in between) heaviest still se corner of New England with 8" line boston to privdence....3-4 days to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'll take the under. Me too, can't remember the last time we had a legit 24 hour event, never mind 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm concerned, lot of runs to continue trending 50 miles at a time We're good. Should see less and less movement now. The track is great for us. Colder solution will give us solid fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We're good. Should see less and less movement now. The track is great for us. Colder solution will give us solid fluff. Good point. Were in a real good spot. Hoping for 4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We're good. Should see less and less movement now. The track is great for us. Colder solution will give us solid fluff.. Lol. Solid fluffBut yeah, that area by you should do nicely in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Its still a very nice hit despite the trends. weenie snow maps 4" line is mason dixon to powderfreak (4-8 in between) heaviest still se corner of New England with 8" line boston to privdence....3-4 days to go Boo, sucks to be me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You guys need to hold off on the toaster baths. 4 days out....the same ish happened in Feb and in 2011. Just hold off. Jeez. Yep...but good luck getting a large number of weenies congregated in one forum to not obsess over every shift. It's going to snow. I think people should wait until we are inside of 60 hours to entertain the jackpot fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Meh, wouldn't shock me if this thing just ends up not happening, though... maybe some exit fan-fare in the MA with a flat wave. The problem is/was/and remains that there is too much ridging in the SW Atlantic basin, and that is causing too much compression against all these cold heights at 40N over eastern N/A. The one after this has a better initial condition for allowing S/W jet mechanics to get sufficiently far S, at a west enough point(s) to get things going. 'Course, the Euro goes over-board with it and can't be trusted, but in terms of general canvas that's a better period. There is another option, though. NJ Model low, with a narrow, fast conduit of intensification and impact result. If it all corrected toward that, that could work. But I don't see a stem wound "EC" impact as being very well supported. Unfortunately, there is no crystal ball and stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 i don't see much of a trend. just a shift away from the overdone 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 At face value - ec ens are very solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 At face value - ec ens are very solid.if i'm not mistaken they flagged the threat before the op did. at least it's been consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 At face value - ec ens are very solid. One last question on them? What's the spread like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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