Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Ray should be the last one worrying. Synoptically he's in a good spot...he's just wetting himself from mesoscale worries.Adult diaper inside the backless snow pants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yeah, I'm still keeping excitement in check. Waiting for a caution flag from Scott. Suppression always lurks in the background with this amount of cold being modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hopefully not for the 1/6 cutter...lol. Wow that storm is a beast on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hopefully not for the 1/6 cutter...lol. Back to burly men and short sleeves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That was a big shift. This ... folks immediately getting blown away by the implications of the eye candy, but the shifting around is not good. I could see this shift south an equal amt on the 00z guidance to capitulate to the progressivity of the flow (conserving that -- ) and we get dusted. Or not....just sayin', I'd really keep your enthusiasm to a dull roar with this thing,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hopefully not for the 1/6 cutter...lol. 960s low over BTV lol. Ill go out on a limb and say that one probably wont verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I've been snowblowing and roof raking all day. Im fine with my 15" on the ground. Hope you guys down south get a raging mid winter cold storm. Same here, My pack is 13" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The C/NNE peeps and Ray are worried. Don't like Miller As.....something always goes wrong up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 960s low over BTV lol. Ill go out on a limb and say that one probably wont verify. Maybe not, but that system is going to have a hell of a lot of ammunition to work with. Unfortunately there's a good chance we're on the wrong side of it if it comes to fruition. Still la-la-land though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Adult diaper inside the backless snow pants :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yeah have had bare ground here for about a week and a half. This can trend south still, yes. But will take anything over bare ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Maybe not, but that system is going to have a hell of a lot of ammunition to work with. Unfortunately there's a good chance we're on the wrong side of it if it comes to fruition. Still la-la-land though. Definitely that one could get ugly, but that is one monster of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Maybe not, but that system is going to have a hell of a lot of ammunition to work with. Unfortunately there's a good chance we're on the wrong side of it if it comes to fruition. Still la-la-land though. With the cold overwhelming the pattern that has very little chance of being a wArm storm. Prob some type of secondary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/417724640417427456/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Can we talk about the 1/2-3 storm and not the giant cutter on the EURO in the Jan 6 time frame. Please we don't need bad news right now, lol. We have a big snowstorm coming and that's all we need to focus on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I've been snowblowing and roof raking all day. Im fine with my 15" on the ground. Hope you guys down south get a raging mid winter cold storm. Same here, My pack is 13" My pack is about 1-2" of now frozen mud. Still need the storm to verify so my enthusiasm is just fleeting. Sounds like the Op is in line with the Ensm mean now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Sounds like somewhere (probably near me or maybe Dendrite, etc.) there is gonna be a sharp northern cutoff if its tracking under the 40/70 point now.... There very well maybe one Logan But the EC like prior runs of the GFS is showing a decent inverted trough up thru ENY very close to or just west of the Hudson Valley with very strong +2 to +3 SD east wind anomaly at H850 feeding into this trough you may jackpot. Likewise east facing slopes of higher terrain of Western New England could benefit from this enhanced easterly flow. Conversely, at least for a while, there will also be a strong shadow in the N-S oriented valleys of NYS (HV) and New England (CtV) which would result in lesser snowfall amounts for these locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 EURO is a shift southward, something to watch in the upcoming 00z runs. I think it should start flattening out the trends within the next three runs and we will get a better idea, we just need the GFS to start seeing a stronger vort max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm having awful flashbacks to an event in January 2009...a season that has a lot of parralels to this one. The EURO had been pegging a monster until about 36 hours out....when the plufg was promptly pulled, and we wound up with a dreadful inverted trough. Not saying something that dire is going to occur, but I'm still leary of progressivity ultimatley ruling the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm honestly glad I'm not living in the mountains for setups like these even though they jackpot more so than the Cape and Islands, its fun living here given all of the unknowns with the water so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm having awful flashbacks to an event in January 2009...a season that has a lot of parralels to this one. The EURO had been pegging a monster until about 36 hours out....when the plufg was promptly pulled, and we wound up with a dreadful inverted trough. Not saying something that dire is going to occur, but I'm still leary of progressivity ultimatley ruling the day. Nope, that was the GFS showing that. You are thinking of that Feb 2-3, 2009 storm where the Euro insisted on the inverted trough idea but the GFS was trying to show a KU. That said, I wouldn't get latched onto the idea of a KU type system here either. The flow is progressive so I'd favor something lighter...but that doesn't mean we still can't get a big event. Its just that a lot of things have to work almost perfectly for 12"+ totals. Euro has basically done that the past couple runs. If it continues to show it a couple more runs as we get inside 84 hours, then I'll start biting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Good to hear Andy... Truthfully I only just started to look at this event. I was pre-occupied with yesterday. There very well maybe one Logan But the EC like prior runs of the GFS is showing a decent inverted trough up thru ENY very close to or just west of the Hudson Valley with very strong +2 to +3 SD east wind anomaly at H850 feeding into this trough you may jackpot. Likewise east facing slopes of higher terrain of Western New England could benefit from this enhanced easterly flow. Conversely, at least for a while, there will also be a strong shadow in the N-S oriented valleys of NYS (HV) and New England (CtV) which would result in lesser snowfall amounts for these locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm honestly glad I'm not living in the mountains for setups like these even though they jackpot more so than the Cape and Islands, its fun living here given all of the unknowns with the water so close. Best not to start that whole discussion about living one place or another for reasons relating to snow haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 . Always a possibility with this At least it's not a cutter True, it's definitely not going to cut. What's funny is that the Cape Cod, MA guy may get his Jan 05 after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Best not to start that whole discussion about living one place or another for reasons relating to snow haha. I think he meant to say he loves being so close to the gulf stream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Just about all guidance still has a long duration event. Don't sell to bonus of that initial overrunning short. It almost always is under modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's always better never to get expectations up for much more than a "moderate event"... I, particularly, get burnt with regularity here because it's a lot harder here when you don't stick out to 70W with water all south of you. If this ends up being the 1 in 10 storm that bombs fast enough to get me into epic snowfall I will be pleasantly surprised. I'm having awful flashbacks to an event in January 2009...a season that has a lot of parralels to this one. The EURO had been pegging a monster until about 36 hours out....when the plufg was promptly pulled, and we wound up with a dreadful inverted trough. Not saying something that dire is going to occur, but I'm still leary of progressivity ultimatley ruling the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Best not to start that whole discussion about living one place or another for reasons relating to snow haha. Especially if he's comparing snow to New England mtns vs the cape...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 All winter we've heard this just isn't the year for a KU. I'd keep expectations in check for 8+ and hope we can go big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nope, that was the GFS showing that. You are thinking of that Feb 2-3, 2009 storm where the Euro insisted on the inverted trough idea but the GFS was trying to show a KU. That said, I wouldn't get latched onto the idea of a KU type system here either. The flow is progressive so I'd favor something lighter...but that doesn't mean we still can't get a big event. Its just that a lot of things have to work almost perfectly for 12"+ totals. Euro has basically done that the past couple runs. If it continues to show it a couple more runs as we get inside 84 hours, then I'll start biting. I agree on progressive flow. Wind anomalies at H250 are +1 to +2 westerly. This is a progressive event. If they were negative and easterly then you would be looking at a longer duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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