Rjay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Do a hand stand. lol Migraine incoming lofl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Bob is the SNE version of dendrite, When he likes something, Its bad news up here I feel confident for us...so what does that mean? Does the universe collapse upon itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Bob is the SNE version of dendrite, When he likes something, Its bad news up hereHe is selfish about his snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Bob is the SNE version of dendrite, When he likes something, Its bad news up here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not sure if this is mentioned but the 12z GGEM really has back way down on this thing and is really more into the severity of the cold as being the bigger headliner for the late week....albeit brief. The GGEM is lower skilled model for our part of the world (imo).... But it is usually over amplified in that time range. So it's ...I guess vaguely interesting that it can't even sniff it's own stink hole this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I am slightly skeptical of the 00z ECMWF solution. I've been on vacation and really haven't had much time to investigate fully, but from what courtesy glance, having a sub 500 dm low at 500 hPa over Newfoundland before a major phasing event suggests significant suppression. Of course this 500 dm low is very progressive which is why the 00z ECMWF had a bomb for the northeast. I wouldn't be surprised though if such a strong and broad low is less progressive than the ECM guidance suggests, which would favor a GFS like solution over the ECMWF at this time. Still some time to watch, but if that 500 hPa stays locked up over Newfoundland for a longer period, the interior northeast would be left drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I feel confident for us...so what does that mean? Does the universe collapse upon itself? Ask Ray...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 does anyone ever take the GGEM seriously? Tell Ohleary in off topic that the GGEM and NAM suck and he will rip u apart. (I agree with u...they are awful in their own ways). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 lots of pix of them in the papers over last month - sachuest point in middltown has many as well. appears they are after lemmings... http://northkingstown.patch.com/groups/around-town/p/snowy-owl-found-at-quonset-airport-recuperating-in-westerly WESTERLY, R.I. (AP) — A University of Rhode Island professor says the high number of snowy owls seen in the state this year is unprecedented. Ecology professor Peter Paton told The Westerly Sun (http://bit.ly/1bQCdL9 ) that there have been reports of snowy owls this year in Middletown, Warwick, Jamestown, Charlestown and Westerly. Rachel Farrell runs the online Rhode Island birders’ network known as Pollypie. She says the current influx of snowy owls is one of the largest in recent years and may end up being of historic proportions. Bird experts say the owls live in the Arctic, but many fly south when their population spikes or food sources are scarce. They say an unusually large number of snowy owls have been seen this year in the Northeast, Midwest and as far south as North Carolina They have been everywhere this winter: http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/12/09/report-port-authority-targeting-snowy-owls-at-jfk/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not sure if this is mentioned but the 12z GGEM really has back way down on this thing and is really more into the severity of the cold as being the bigger headliner for the late week....albeit brief IIRC, some of those previous GGEM blizzard runs didn't make that much sense. Many of those runs left H7 mostly open and any semblance of it closed off passed the H7 low over my head. It's tough to rack up 1-2ft in SNE with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I am slightly skeptical of the 00z ECMWF solution. I've been on vacation and really haven't had much time to investigate fully, but from what courtesy glance, having a sub 500 dm low at 500 hPa over Newfoundland before a major phasing event suggests significant suppression. Of course this 500 dm low is very progressive which is why the 00z ECMWF had a bomb for the northeast. I wouldn't be surprised though if such a strong and broad low is less progressive than the ECM guidance suggests, which would favor a GFS like solution over the ECMWF at this time. Still some time to watch, but if that 500 hPa stays locked up over Newfoundland for a longer period, the interior northeast would be left drier. Hugely agreed -- I also mentioned another way to identify that suppression/compression of the field, and how it limits cyclogenesis mechancis awhile ago ... but as usual, the din and fervor probably distracted folks from wanting to really acknowledge that the snowier ideas might be wrong... Hahah. Seriously though... yeah, there's a few red flags in this. Also, the Euro solution "could" take place, but it would require something rather extraordinary be injected out of the dearth of data that is the N--Pac/Yukon regions. Maybe that uncertainty of data ingest will be an ally this time. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Either way we still at the least get a long duration fluff snowstorm http://mnoy.es/1cQg1RD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 IIRC, some of those previous GGEM blizzard runs didn't make that much sense. Many of those runs left H7 mostly open and any semblance of it closed off passed the H7 low over my head. It's tough to rack up 1-2ft in SNE with that. Yeah ... this too. There may be a big snow storm ...somehow, late this week, but we should doubt the GGEM method. pretty much ever, actually... also, not to deviate the thread: but there seems to be an emergent transitory pattern lurking now through the middle range. Bitter cold, replaced by runs all the way to +3 at 850, followed by cycling the other way. That is really more coherently related to progressive patterns, not slow down big bomby bashes. Perhaps an out of the box way of looking at the upper tier suggestions with some incredulity to put it nicely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Either way we still at the least get a long duration fluff snowstorm http://mnoy.es/1cQg1RD you trust Noyes so much - why do you post here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 you trust Noyes so much - why do you post here?I trust you and only you Phillip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Either way we still at the least get a long duration fluff snowstorm http://mnoy.es/1cQg1RD Wow, hadn't realized the tidal implications....good read. I thought that was very level-headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 He is selfish about his snow Tough when I don't have any. And to answer Forky, I put the GGEM below the GFS when it comes to models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wow, hadn't realized the tidal implications....good read. I though that was very level-headed. Yup . No hype there. The hype tweets are merely a way to guide folks to the website and on air ratings . Very smart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wow, hadn't realized the tidal implications....good read. I thought that was very level-headed. The tides were mentioned by someone on here a couple of days ago or longer. But I forget who/details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 @pbouchardon7: How many weather folks r sitting by their computers hammering the refresh button with the latest model run of the #ECMWF ? #okthatsme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro coming in a bit less amped vs 0Z same time. Not huge but discernible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 tweets should go in the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro coming in a bit less amped vs 0Z same time. Not huge but discernible. Ideally, you and I want a slightly less amped version of the 00z EURO OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Still looks like it will be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Ideally, you and I want a slightly less amped version of the 00z EURO OP. Ideally...we want x0Z verbatim. 42F on parts of the cape and 14 at BOS...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Still looks like it will be decent. We need historic...not decent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The signal's been out there for a long while in the runs, but now the American teleconnectors are being douchy about it, too. The PNA spike has backed off in the GFS ensemble member mean the last two nightly computations, which doesn't lend too well as cross-guidance support. It is not absolutely necessary to have that cross support, but about half the time it is a red flag when you don't. I have a general rule of thumb that heights over Miami should not exceeed 582 dm, and the balanced geostrophic wind should not exceed 35kts, ...and here is the key, PRIOR to the amplification coming into the rough longitudes of the Mississippi Valley region. In this case, the Euro violates both rules of thumb. The reason this is a limitation has to do with mechanics and is complicated to explain. Let me just put it simply as, "shear." Or rather, if you can bear it, when the wind maximum core in the jet stream tries to enter a domain that is already highly compressed (big geopotential gradient with already high-ish wind) then the wind max associated with the S/W is no longer as differentiating on the flow. If it is not differentiating, this lowers jet responses (inflow of WAA to feed cyclogenesis with latent heat ... etc). The way it works is called q-vector forcing, where q vectors relate to the amount of Upward Vertical Motion that is "forced". Less differentiation = less upward forcing = less UVM = weak WAA response = weak storm. To me that is a very simple chain of logic, but when I have tried to explain this rather fundamental principle to people ... it's like a scene out of a sitcom where the room goes silent for 6 seconds, then squabbling re-ensues where no one even acknowledges what was just said. I'm not sure, but for some reason, people have a tough time getting it... I only get a little frustrated by the lack of perceived comprehension, because the principle is clad and can be employed during deterministic/operational weather prediction, but people just slip right back into autopilot when they see a trough coming E. For those on the blogosphere, we then have to suffer a "blizzard" of TK and MN tweets... But I digress... anyway, seeing the GFS suite backing off the +PNA may just be related to why in this case ... both variables are being violated in order to get to the Euro's exotic solution. But, then again, we also notice that the GFS has maintained more progressive character to the flow, and a more sheared out system, so it is good within it's own processing. What it all boils down to is a bit of a model battle. The Euro can overcome the Miami heights and wind rule of thumb, by dumping and absolute monstrosity into the flow (so in order to establish the greater differentials), but that would be the rarefied solution -- because to do so approaches the upper bounds of Terra physical extremes, so inherently it is less likely to achieve those degrees of intensity. We'll just have to see if this week is one of those rarer times. Btw, no other guidance pulls that off, either. On the other hand, the Euro is now inside of D5, and that's really when the model is almost impossible to beat. Oy vay This 12z Euro run will be really interesting... So the euro, could be wrong its solution is way crazy for the way the atmosphere is set up. However we need to watch the euro, for the euro has a good track record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We need historic...not decent... But you could get neither and suffer a bad case of suppression depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 But you could get neither and suffer a bad case of suppression depression. Not gonna happen this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not gonna happen this time. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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