Boston-winter08 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 lol, looks like the GFS is coming onboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Kind of a spurious double sfc low there. That is a pretty potent vort diving into and rounding that MS vly trough. I'd expect a more consolidated low in the SE. Looks like a bit of convective feedback to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Something like that. BTV is thinking 20-25:1 is plausible in my area and with the forecast temps I can't really disupute that. However I am not going with anywhere near 40" LOL. The storm several weeks ago that produced widespread 8-12 inches was forecast early on to have the same ratios, only to come down to 10-12:1 after the event concluded. I suspect this will come down too, but where it ends up, I don't have the skill to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Gfs is a weenie run out of earthlights playbook. I95 storm.huge changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Reminds me of that that Saturday event 2 weeks ago..Looks like that somewhat..Overrunning snows all day and biter cold temps This one looks better than that one...at least right now for the overrunning side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Kind of a spurious double sfc low there. That is a pretty potent vort diving into and rounding that MS vly trough. I'd expect a more consolidated low in the SE. Looks like a bit of convective feedback to me. The first one got way out ahead and took the second one offshore with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Kind of a spurious double sfc low there. That is a pretty potent vort diving into and rounding that MS vly trough. I'd expect a more consolidated low in the SE. Looks like a bit of convective feedback to me. Yeah a weird evolution.... but it looks good aloft. Definite changes toward a bigger event it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Snow snow snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 overall though, still a shift. Agreed. The lead low is suspect to me as it develops on that piece of vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Kind of a spurious double sfc low there. That is a pretty potent vort diving into and rounding that MS vly trough. I'd expect a more consolidated low in the SE. Looks like a bit of convective feedback to me. Agreed. The lead low is suspect to me as it develops on that piece of vorticity. Bingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That run barely gives Jeff a flurry, but it is evolving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 This one looks better than that one...at least right now for the overrunning side of things. Yeah heavier and more folks in on the it..That one was more pike south..I just meant the overall look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That run barely gives Jeff a flurry, but it is evolving Cold dry begets dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yeah a weird evolution.... but it looks good aloft. Definite changes toward a bigger event it seems.The SE is right under the equatorward entrance region of a strong upper jet at 78hr too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hype sells, but if it's not backed up, it's just an empty shell. Do it enough times, the buzz, the excitement goes away and folks shrug their shoulders and shake their heads. And long for something real and solid to hold. I don't understand why folks can't understand that.. Noone is saying that amount will happen..but it creates a buzz, excitement, and gets people tuned in. It's about ratings and getting people excited..It's been going on since the beginning of time..in every aspect of life. You just have to be able to walk the line.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 High cirrus and cold for me if the 12z GFS verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 the gfs did weird stuff like this in february Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 the gfs did weird stuff like this in february GFS was consistently drier on the 2/8/13 storm-had my area getting only 12 inches when 30 inches was the eventual outcome. Nice to see the GFS wet on this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You can absolutely toss this. All I take from it is that the more meager camp has folded. ECENS mean is the way to go, but the from here on out EC OP becomes paramount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Convective feedback again by the GFS off the Carolinas, its tended to do this alot the last 2 winters with those double low centers, I can't really say without it whether the solution would have been any better, it may just have been 1 big suppressed low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Convective feedback again by the GFS off the Carolinas, its tended to do this alot the last 2 winters with those double low centers, I can't really say without it whether the solution would have been any better, it may just have been 1 big suppressed low I definitely think it would have been better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Good sign….at beach ( RI) yesterday. visiting from the North. IMG_0034.jpgawesome, they wouldn't believe me if I told them the last time I saw a snowy owl in RI but Jerry would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Convective feedback again by the GFS off the Carolinas, its tended to do this alot the last 2 winters with those double low centers, I can't really say without it whether the solution would have been any better, it may just have been 1 big suppressed low It'll be interesting to see what the GEFS do. That will shed a lot of light I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Convective feedback again by the GFS off the Carolinas, its tended to do this alot the last 2 winters with those double low centers, I can't really say without it whether the solution would have been any better, it may just have been 1 big suppressed low i don't know if its right or wrong...i'm not smart enough to know...but not sure that i'd necessarily call it feedback. as dendrite noted, the SE is under the RRQ of the upper air jet...so any little kink in the flow coming out ahead of the main vortmax will try to induce surface cyclogenesis out there. GFS may be overdoing the small pockets of energy in the trough, leading to too much lead pressure falls out there, may not be. tough to say. it did move toward the euro over the plains. not all the way there but made some steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Dug deep...better for folks from dc to nyc now. Not so much a later transfer anymore. Still good overunning for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 awesome, they wouldn't believe me if I told them the last time I saw a snowy owl in RI but Jerry would.1888? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 awesome, they wouldn't believe me if I told them the last time I saw a snowy owl in RI but Jerry would. Let me guess, the birdie had a name.....birdie's name was Leon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not an option. We run on. Those types of mornings are brutal..as I'm sure there will be wind I ran for a long time but figured out an indoor option when there was 12+ on the ground.....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GGEM is on the verge of a whiff. kinda blossoms some precip late game...after the light overrunning...but that's meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GGEM is on the verge of a whiff. kinda blossoms some precip late game...after the light overrunning...but that's meh.We toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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