WeatherX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 euro ens? Monstah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro ensembles have a powerful low near the benchmark while the 06z gfs is still far south and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well it went over CHH lol. Progged at this range to run over the islands....I guess that is better than 100 miles NW for some. Depending on the ensembles though without blocking I wonder if that's done. If the ensembles are near or NW I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Long and deep folks. Long duration and deep snow Long and deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The GEFS are so different. Either a big win or big fail for the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 ALB is all in it seems FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE LEAD OF WPC AND FAVOR THE 29/12Z ECMWF...WHICH STILL SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA...AND LOOKS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY/THURS NIGHT...WITH POPS TAPERING DOWN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. TEMPS LOOK VERY COLD...WITH MINS BELOW ZERO OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SINGLE DIGITS IN VALLEY AREAS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. BTV favoring the ECM as well over the GFS.... .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 426 AM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL THEN RETREAT TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME DEVELOPING OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT OVERRIDES THE COLD ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE. ON THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS LOW... WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL IN BRINGING THIS LOW EASTWARD. THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF MODEL IS FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS AND AND DIGS FURTHER SOUTH AND IS SHARPER THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS MODEL. PREFER THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE ECMWF MODEL...AS THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST. HOWEVER... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING THAT SNOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THUS...BOTH MODELS SHOWING THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING A DRY FLUFFY SNOW AND NOT A WET SNOW WITH A HIGH WATER CONTENT. THUS...THIS COULD RESULT IN SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIOS OF 20-1 OR 25-1. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A BETTER IDEA AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT...THEN SNOW COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Umm..yes please http://ow.ly/i/49Q9J Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Long and deep folks. Long duration and deep snow Long and deep Jayhawk needs to make a .gif of you dancing with pom-poms cheerleading for "Team Winter." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Canadian ensembles are in between EC and GFS but more on the stronger side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 980s close to the benchmarkAh that makes me feel better. When we had these "islands" previous systems we seemed to have the ensembles around or nw of those tracks by now.Se euro ens while the gefs are even further I think is better news for the cp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Jayhawk needs to make a .gif of you dancing with pom-poms cheerleading for "Team Winter." He said go long..she said go deep. Long and deep. Heavy heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I haven't seen an ECM run this good up here in a long time, haha. Unfortunately, it can go no where but down from here The benefit of a big circulation near Cape Cod... it snows from CT to Maine, and BOS to BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 does NNE need to worry about a sharp cutoff in precip to the NW? like boxing day or jan 05, both had pretty sharp cutoffs Edit: nevermind, just saw the maps posted by pf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 He said go long..she said go deep. Long and deep. Heavy heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 6z GFS is a good look at what happens with a progressive trough that doesn't dig nearly as much as the ECM. More of a SNE snow look... would still be a great storm for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Boxing Day 2 was a miller A snowstorm, this is a miller B, so the Jan 05 analog is a better one, although I don't think it will rival it in snowfall amounts for the coastal plain, but with the EURO in it wouldn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 978 under LI to 967 over CHH....Looks a little breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm interested. Hopefully we can get something amped with a tighter track. Call me a worrier if you want--yesterday is all I need to vindicate myself. What a disaster. Sure am glad to be up here. 35.7/30 at the Pit. I guess it'll be cooling down today a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTSkywarn Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wow... I hope the Euro scenario pans out. I think the big lesson here is that when Tim Kelley says the word "blizzard" in a twitter post....it's time to pay attention. Tim is really my favorite Meteorologist. Unfortunately I can only watch him when I'm at the gym since I get Dish Network and not Comcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wow... I hope the Euro scenario pans out. I think the big lesson here is that when Tim Kelley says the word "blizzard" in a twitter post....it's time to pay attention. Tim is really my favorite Meteorologist. Unfortunately I can only watch him when I'm at the gym since I get Dish Network and not Comcast. When TK says "hurricane", though, pay no heed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Long and deep folks. Long duration and deep snow Long and deep weeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro ensembles have a powerful low near the benchmark while the 06z gfs is still far south and weaker. Not bad at all, Finally got a look at the Op Euro. Damn..... Explodes over E areas up into C/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think the track is finally a compromise of the GFS and EURO, strength is a difference of the two, which is still around 980mb at the Benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What's the score Euro vs GFS so far this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 What's the score Euro vs GFS so far this winter? 100-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wow Wxrisk.com4 hours ago IF this pattern holds JAN 2014 could be a TOP 10 JAN for SNOW for northern half of PA NYC NY STATE and all of New England ...-AO/ + NAO .. split flow pattern ... another possible NYC NEW ENGLAND winter storm JAN 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wow Wxrisk.com4 hours ago IF this pattern holds JAN 2014 could be a TOP 10 JAN for SNOW for northern half of PA NYC NY STATE and all of New England ...-AO/ + NAO .. split flow pattern ... another possible NYC NEW ENGLAND winter storm JAN 7 I don't know, wxrisk.com isn't on my favorites list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 100-0 LOL, not quite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Jan 7 is available for our enjoyment too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Any cool analogs popping up? Ginx mentioned Jan 78. That was BOS all time biggest storm. For about 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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