Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 A moderate event looks to be a good bet for now, but what is your definition of great?8-12 or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I believe we're getting some clear consensus with this. Primary low running up towards the GL with a redeveloper along the coast. 2 critical pieces that will impact results the most. I know it's going to snow but there are still a lot of details to resolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It actually was good all around to be fair. I don't see a big difference in regions on this run. good all around, yes. but redevelopment is tricky the more SW you go. NJ into NYC get shafted....leading to SW CT being on the fringe. granted thats not much a part of SNE. but I think even up to HFD can be affected. way too early for details anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Here is the correct placement of SLP based on the H5 chart on the Goofus...red X=no. Black L=yes. Met students take notice...GFS still sucks monster animal balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 What? Who drew that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 my weenie eyes tell me that drawing is wtf-able... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Barry Burbank saying "a few inches" with snow Thursday ending early Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Your 18z Goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I don't see the point. Low placement isn't all based on 500mb vorticity advection. That map was arrogantly drawn by someone who doesn't understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I don't see the point. Low placement isn't all based on 500mb vorticity advection. That map was arrogantly drawn by someone who doesn't understand. maybe someone who wants to teach the next batch of social media mets?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 where did that map come from? whoever drew hasnt a clue Here is the correct placement of SLP based on the H5 chart on the Goofus...red X=no. Black L=yes. Met students take notice...GFS still sucks monster animal balls. gfs_z500_vort_us_33.png gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_31.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The person trying to draw it is arguing the low in red is too far east and he may be right, but two things. It's not THAT far off and secondly...the guy needs a lesson in cyclogenesis. I'm glad he knows where the low is supposed to be. He must be a genius. We no longer need computer models. Phew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 What the heck is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Typical GFS bias of running SLP formation out in front of the base of the eventual trough. See for yourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Still a horrible excuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GEFS are really far SE. That seems too extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Still a horrible excuse. Not really. It's science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Not really. It's science. Science would be the concept of positive vorticity advection, many other levels of dynamics and the placement of the surface low, not drawing a black L on a map where you think it should be. The GFS places the surface low correctly -- it remains to be seen if the models handling of the pattern and dynamics that lead to that placement and track are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Not really. It's science. GEFS have the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Science would be the concept of positive vorticity advection, many other levels of dynamics and the placement of the surface low, not drawing a black L on a map where you think it should be. The GFS places the surface low correctly -- it remains to be seen if the models handling of the pattern and dynamics that lead to that placement and track are correct. What's the correct mathematical formula for PVA John? Why don't you post it for all the young aspiring meteorologists here.....This is a teaching weather forum, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Not really. It's science. No it isn't, it's some weenie who thinks he or she knows what they are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 What's the correct mathematical formula for PVA John? Why don't you post it for all the young aspiring meteorologists here.....This is a teaching weather forum, correct? Seems like a good way to get yourself 5-posted the way this is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I like the look of the indiv 18z GFS ensm members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Seems like a good way to get yourself 5-posted the way this is going. Trying to make a point. I post maps and try to explain. The crowd has no idea why I am right or wrong. A credible met should post a map with directions, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The GFS op at hr 96 has almost a two jet structure which is helping to force the low where it is. The low placement where metweenie has it is completely incorrect at 300mb. Again, if you want to argue the model is wrong..fine..but not because of that logic put forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 C'mon John, don't derail the thread. Everyone's point has been made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Seems like a good way to get yourself 5-posted the way this is going. that's a little overboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 No it isn't, it's some weenie who thinks he or she knows what they are doing. You and I clearly need to have beers together soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 C'mon John, don't derail the thread. Everyone's point has been made. Ok. I'm out Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 You and I clearly need to have beers together soon Did you draw that? In a simple way, low placement is from PVA and WAA which 300-200mb jet streaks augment. I looked at detailed 300mb and 200mb and I can't make a glaring argument for the GFS being wrong knowing that other physics go into low pressure placement. Sure maybe it's a bit too far east perhaps, but it isn't a huge issue being 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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