Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I'm not even ruling out some taint here...I wouldn't be so sure. Thing is I'm not sure myself, but with a semi block present, the pattern isn't the same as it has been previously. In fact even during a period of +NAO and -PNA, you can get days where a -NAO and +PNA show up at 500mb. The 2-4th is one of those times. That doesn't equate to no rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 James is block crazy. In the words of Jackie Mason..."there is no block"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I think the pattern is the same but much stronger and fresher cold. Therefore, snow is much or likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 What I have inferred from you is that it will likely be a 6-12" event, as opposed to the currently modeled 1-2'. Well to be honest, I wouldn't be comfortable throwing those numbers out, but the GGEM was the only real one showing that. You are going to need a couple of days to work on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 1 or 2 Forky troll posts is all that was needed .Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I think the pattern is the same but much stronger and fresher cold. Therefore, snow is much or likely. The antecedent airmass is about as good as it can get....so we def have that working for us. OBviously though it doesn't mean it would stay all snow...but certainly starting as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I think it's safe to say snow likely possibly mixing/changing near the coast most likely furthest south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 my early numbers are 6-8 for my area, that is a good starting point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 what is the point of throwing out numbers right now? so bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 what is the point of throwing out numbers right now? so bad... To set up overblown expectations? There's pretty strong agreement on guidance for a decent system...but I think its worth remembering that this is still 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Forky mentioned 2/14/07. That put down the most bullet proof sleet pack with some snow I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 what is the point of throwing out numbers right now? so bad... it's fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Gfs starts snow just past midnight Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 it's fun in banter, maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 To set up overblown expectations? There's pretty strong agreement on guidance for a decent system...but I think its worth remembering that this is still 4-5 days out. As much as it can go the way of more rain as the north trend happens, I think it can just as easily go the other way where only the South Coast sees snow. So I know the parameters of this system, EURO has been robust for the past two cycles and has not moved that much since it got the snowstorm idea. I know its two runs, but the next three runs and so will be important. If it stays with a crusher than we need to take note. There is a block, there is ridging over Greenland and a vortex to the south of the ridge, so yes there is a block, although weak it is still present. That cannot be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Gfs starts snow just past midnight Wednesday night. yeah, thursday morning snowns starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 Gfs starts snow just past midnight Wednesday night. Yeah I noticed on all the 00z runs and continuing today so far is the start time has sped up..so it's snowing regionwide before dawn Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 in banter, maybe... well, depends on who is giving numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Gfs starts snow just past midnight Wednesday night. Mood snows and OES basically to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The clipper before the 2-4 clipper actually acts to bring down even colder air for WED. SO the antecedent air mass is quite chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I don't think anything really has it modeled as 1 to 2 feet though There is only really one piece of guidance that shows 1-2 feet...and that is the Canadian. The Euro maybe shows a foot or so. It is way too early anyway to be discussing totals. Maybe tomorrow night you can start getting a general idea. This could still be a minor event. I was referring to the last day worth of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 To set up overblown expectations? There's pretty strong agreement on guidance for a decent system...but I think its worth remembering that this is still 4-5 days out. As much as it can go the way of more rain as the north trend happens, I think it can just as easily go the other way where only the South Coast sees snow. So I know the parameters of this system, EURO has been robust for the past two cycles and has not moved that much since it got the snowstorm idea. I know its two runs, but the next three runs and so will be important. If it stays with a crusher than we need to take note. There is a block, there is ridging over Greenland and a vortex to the south of the ridge, so yes there is a block, although weak it is still present. That cannot be ignored. FYI... It rains for a while on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 That's a real cold storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 As much as it can go the way of more rain as the north trend happens, I think it can just as easily go the other way where only the South Coast sees snow. So I know the parameters of this system, EURO has been robust for the past two cycles and has not moved that much since it got the snowstorm idea. I know its two runs, but the next three runs and so will be important. If it stays with a crusher than we need to take note. There is a block, there is ridging over Greenland and a vortex to the south of the ridge, so yes there is a block, although weak it is still present. That cannot be ignored. The "block" is east-based...and as you already mentioned, weak. So its really not an excuse to forecast southeast trends. If it goes southeast, it is more due to the lack of energy driving southeast along the lee side of the western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Mood snows and OES basically to start.And to finish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Good snowstorm for most on gfs. Produced predominantly by the moisture feed over the bitter cold dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 That's a real cold storm. -12/-15 850 c overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 And to finish... That's quite alright not seeing it amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Mood snows and OES basically to start. In that airmass it won't take much for it to add up. And it's snowing decently right past dawn. School issues Thursday and possibly Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Nice for the E-SE SNE folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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