Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Yeah if this is a complete POS than its way south like the 00z GEFS. Gut says no. I also think the euro op was a bit strung out and not the best looking storm. yeah the ensemble mean actually looked healthier. the GGEM sort of had that strung out / disorganized look too. especially early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Well not over central MA I hope lol. This likely will not move into mainland SNE.Whew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I'm pretty sure he left out the word "not" Or he's drunk sucking back on grandpas old cough medicine? really even if it came left, the interior would be frigid regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 That could be why I like Twitter so much Yeah I feel like I've skied with him enough to know he would not forecast a blizzard right now, lol. He would even probably say the chances of rain or a whiff are much higher than a blizzard. But you also know who your followers are on social media, and they'd rather hear about the 10% chance of a blizzard than the 90% chance of not getting one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 yeah the ensemble mean actually looked healthier. the GGEM sort of had that strung out / disorganized look too. especially early on. I agree. Glad the ensemble had that look. That's better for you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 wow...HoarfrostDaveHubb - you want to talk about going off the rails. TK has just lost it. just chucking all the dates out there. jan 96, jan 05. hopefully soon we'll see a 2/78 in there too. how about just a snowstorm? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Yeah I feel like I've skied with him enough to know he would not forecast a blizzard right now, lol. He would even probably say the chances of rain or a whiff are much higher than a blizzard. But you also know who your followers are on social media, and they'd rather hear about the 10% chance of a blizzard than the 90% chance of not getting one. but - it's not like it's some exclusive club. there are hundreds of millions of people on Twitter i could see that as more appropriate on here than on twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 yeah the ensemble mean actually looked healthier. the GGEM sort of had that strung out / disorganized look too. especially early on. There's like three separate vort maxes in succession coming down around the base of the trough on the models. The whole mid level fields have some massive areas of circulation, like the 700mb closed low is over NW New York State on some of these. I could see a big area of light to moderate snow over a lot of the region if it doesn't wrap up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 but - it's not like it's some exclusive club. there are hundreds of millions of people on Twitter i could see that as more appropriate on here than on twitter. LOL..I mean think of all the professional mets and scientists out there that also follow him besides all the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I personally am waiting another 24 hours before passing judgement on this potential storm, right now it looks like the models are having difficulties with the setup over the North Atlantic Ocean and the Polar Vortex that moves out in time. This is all dependent on the potential shortwave phasing between the arctic jet potentially, and the northern and southern stream systems, honestly it looks like models have abandoned the potential southern stream shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Tim Kelly lost it this summer with the 2 hurricane for new England scenario which he pieced together with logic that would get some on here 5 posted. That being said I still enjoy his forecasts and I think you just have to realize he tend's to hype on twitter....that's what he tends to do. I don't think he'll be mentioning 05' in the air but that wouldn't shock me if he did...he does seem like a really cool guy. I mean he ski's ...and surf's two things that I love. James I really enjoy your posts as well and I personally hope you wake up jan 3'rd to so much snow you can't stop smiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 wow...HoarfrostDaveHubb - you want to talk about going off the rails. TK has just lost it. just chucking all the dates out there. jan 96, jan 05. hopefully soon we'll see a 2/78 in there too. how about just a snowstorm? LOL. He hates the Cape, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 You need to wrassle with DT more often Or get scolded by Bob Saget er I mean Eric Fisher !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Why would you throw out KU dates with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 i don't like the trends on the euro. higher heights ahead of the storm, weaker davis strait blocking. this could wind up cutting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 i don't like the trends on the euro. higher heights ahead of the storm, weaker davis strait blocking. this could wind up cutting Probably because the disturbance is stronger as it moves through the plains. I think the offshore tracks are almost off the table now. The saving grace is that the pattern is still more or less progressive as the PNA ridge flattens out as the low gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 NAM shows the block squeezing the PV into a split where on piece moves northeastward south of Greenland, to another piece that gets involved with the trough for our storm. This is a really interesting scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Tim Kelly lost it this summer with the 2 hurricane for new England scenario which he pieced together with logic that would get some on here 5 posted. That being said I still enjoy his forecasts and I think you just have to realize he tend's to hype on twitter....that's what he tends to do. I don't think he'll be mentioning 05' in the air but that wouldn't shock me if he did...he does seem like a really cool guy. I mean he ski's ...and surf's two things that I love. James I really enjoy your posts as well and I personally hope you wake up jan 3'rd to so much snow you can't stop smiling. Thanks, I try, maybe too hard. That would be awesome to get a lot of snow from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 if it did cut wouldnt it be alot of ice? Thats a ton of cold air around i don't like the trends on the euro. higher heights ahead of the storm, weaker davis strait blocking. this could wind up cutting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 tK talking blizzards and I'm placing an order for a wetsuit and umbrella Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 tK talking blizzards and I'm placing an order for a wetsuit and umbrella We aren't getting rain from this one, even though its always a possibility, I don't see rain being a huge factor with this storm, there is a block present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 This one is overrunning deluxe. My absolute favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 We aren't getting rain from this one, even though its always a possibility, I don't see rain being a huge factor with this storm, there is a block present. I'm not even ruling out some taint here...I wouldn't be so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I'm not even ruling out some taint here...I wouldn't be so sure. Thing is I'm not sure myself, but with a semi block present, the pattern isn't the same as it has been previously. In fact even during a period of +NAO and -PNA, you can get days where a -NAO and +PNA show up at 500mb. The 2-4th is one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Euro ensembles were a good hit too. I still think we may see a bit more progression than modeled. But, that is good because this would Try to go over us otherwise. What I have inferred from you is that it will likely be a 6-12" event, as opposed to the currently modeled 1-2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I'm not even ruling out some taint here...I wouldn't be so sure. Yep way too early to even suggest that the coast can't see rain...hell, the interior can't be ruled out yet either, though it is strongly unlikely right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 We aren't getting rain from this one, even though its always a possibility, I don't see rain being a huge factor with this storm, there is a block present. I'm not even ruling out some taint here...I wouldn't be so sure. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Euro ensembles were a good hit too. I still think we may see a bit more progression than modeled. But, that is good because this would Try to go over us otherwise. What I have inferred from you is that it will likely be a 6-12" event, as opposed to the currently modeled 1-2'. I don't think anything really has it modeled as 1 to 2 feet though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 What I have inferred from you is that it will likely be a 6-12" event, as opposed to the currently modeled 1-2'. There is only really one piece of guidance that shows 1-2 feet...and that is the Canadian. The Euro maybe shows a foot or so. It is way too early anyway to be discussing totals. Maybe tomorrow night you can start getting a general idea. This could still be a minor event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 things can get ugly fast. ghosts of valentine's day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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