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Big Snow Threat Disco Jan2/3


Damage In Tolland

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Sure...I'm not saying it's great. I'm just not sure it fits the "SSS" anymore.

 

The old ETA/EC, SREFs, and NOGAPs forecasting tricks can't be applied today although some still like to. :)

 

There is no doubt the NAM/NOGAPS rule still works, classic example if the GFS/Euro are a near miss around 108 hours and the NAM is reaching into the early stages of the storm development and you see it only slightly NW of both of them that likely means the GFS/Euro may if anything be TOO far NW because the NAM tends to be way more amped at 84 hours than most guidance, that was a big red flag to me tonight to only see the NAM ever so slightly N of the GFS around 84 hours.

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There is no doubt the NAM/NOGAPS rule still works, classic example if the GFS/Euro are a near miss around 108 hours and the NAM is reaching into the early stages of the storm development and you see it only slightly NW of both of them that likely means the GFS/Euro may if anything be TOO far NW because the NAM tends to be way more amped at 84 hours than most guidance, that was a big red flag to me tonight to only see the NAM ever so slightly N of the GFS around 84 hours.

I will take a 0z GFS 8-12 near miss, thanks
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There is no doubt the NAM/NOGAPS rule still works, classic example if the GFS/Euro are a near miss around 108 hours and the NAM is reaching into the early stages of the storm development and you see it only slightly NW of both of them that likely means the GFS/Euro may if anything be TOO far NW because the NAM tends to be way more amped at 84 hours than most guidance, that was a big red flag to me tonight to only see the NAM ever so slightly N of the GFS around 84 hours.

I'll admit it's empirical, but I feel like I've seen the NAVGEM with more amplified solutions in the LR than the NOGAPS used to have. No argument on the NAM here though.
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There is no doubt the NAM/NOGAPS rule still works, classic example if the GFS/Euro are a near miss around 108 hours and the NAM is reaching into the early stages of the storm development and you see it only slightly NW of both of them that likely means the GFS/Euro may if anything be TOO far NW because the NAM tends to be way more amped at 84 hours than most guidance, that was a big red flag to me tonight to only see the NAM ever so slightly N of the GFS around 84 hours.

Thanks for the insight. Gonna peek at 6z /12z nam when i wake

I thought nam was just unreliable at 84

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