weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 This looks like it will be a decent gfs solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 This is the first solution that has made sense to me. Pulse of moisture over the cold dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It's way better but it's still high minors, Like jma and navgem are triple A, Korean is the cape cod league. https://vimeo.com/user17595284/review/65652514/5e7f0e2c57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 This is the first solution that has made sense to me. Pulse of moisture over the cold dome.Nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Nice run Leon at his best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Well, an improvement to say the least... not beautiful but getting a makeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 This is the first solution that has made sense to me. Pulse of moisture over the cold dome. Dang cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Well, an improvement to say the least... not beautiful but getting a makeover A lot of snow in that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 A lot of snow in that system. Almost days and days... but not the mommas crying for their children type... a continual 0.25" per hour for...36 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Sure...I'm not saying it's great. I'm just not sure it fits the "SSS" anymore. The old ETA/EC, SREFs, and NOGAPs forecasting tricks can't be applied today although some still like to. There is no doubt the NAM/NOGAPS rule still works, classic example if the GFS/Euro are a near miss around 108 hours and the NAM is reaching into the early stages of the storm development and you see it only slightly NW of both of them that likely means the GFS/Euro may if anything be TOO far NW because the NAM tends to be way more amped at 84 hours than most guidance, that was a big red flag to me tonight to only see the NAM ever so slightly N of the GFS around 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Leon at his best.we need to go back to secret references, it's pissing people off. FYI check out JBs video from today, it's free. Ignore the GW crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 There is no doubt the NAM/NOGAPS rule still works, classic example if the GFS/Euro are a near miss around 108 hours and the NAM is reaching into the early stages of the storm development and you see it only slightly NW of both of them that likely means the GFS/Euro may if anything be TOO far NW because the NAM tends to be way more amped at 84 hours than most guidance, that was a big red flag to me tonight to only see the NAM ever so slightly N of the GFS around 84 hours.I will take a 0z GFS 8-12 near miss, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 There is no doubt the NAM/NOGAPS rule still works, classic example if the GFS/Euro are a near miss around 108 hours and the NAM is reaching into the early stages of the storm development and you see it only slightly NW of both of them that likely means the GFS/Euro may if anything be TOO far NW because the NAM tends to be way more amped at 84 hours than most guidance, that was a big red flag to me tonight to only see the NAM ever so slightly N of the GFS around 84 hours.I'll admit it's empirical, but I feel like I've seen the NAVGEM with more amplified solutions in the LR than the NOGAPS used to have. No argument on the NAM here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 There is no doubt the NAM/NOGAPS rule still works, classic example if the GFS/Euro are a near miss around 108 hours and the NAM is reaching into the early stages of the storm development and you see it only slightly NW of both of them that likely means the GFS/Euro may if anything be TOO far NW because the NAM tends to be way more amped at 84 hours than most guidance, that was a big red flag to me tonight to only see the NAM ever so slightly N of the GFS around 84 hours.Thanks for the insight. Gonna peek at 6z /12z nam when i wakeI thought nam was just unreliable at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GGEM, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GGEM, wow Flags flyin or flags thrown over board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Flags flyin or flags thrown over board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GGEM, wow I just checked on Canadian website but the 12hr increments are annoying.....and I'm not used to the maps.....elaboration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Flags flyin or flags thrown over board Blizzard. Overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Flags flyin or flags thrown over boardMorning full mast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Thanks for the insight. Gonna peek at 6z /12z nam when i wake I thought nam was just unreliable at 84 Yeah I can point to numerous cases when the nam had nothing when all had a big hit at 84 hours. It happens more frequently than you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I just checked on Canadian website but the 12hr increments are annoying.....and I'm not used to the maps.....elaboration?Full fledged Blizzard, alas it's the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Ggem precip maps show rain here. I'm guessing its pretty amped. Seems a bit too cold for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Full fledged Blizzard, alas it's the GGEM Just another piece of guidance that always gets referenced but in the end, It always ends up in the back of the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Just another piece of guidance that always gets referenced but in the end, It always ends up in the back of the line It's having a particularly awful winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Just another piece of guidance that always gets referenced but in the end, It always ends up in the back of the lineI like the RGEM for precip, ll temps run warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I like the RGEM for precip, ll temps run warm It has the right idea typically, But does run warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Rgem can score at times when airmasses are marginal. But this doesnt look like that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Full fledged Blizzard, alas it's the GGEM Enough for me to sleep like a baby tonight....thanks...I'll deal with the reality it's the GGEM later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Seeing were reaching around for models, What does the JMA and KMA have an post them right side up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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