Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 LOl Phil halfway to his 40? Geezus Tim is off the hook lately huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 So any of your followers on the Cape can change vaca plans, appts. etc..Esp senior citizens and the like.. no...but what should i say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 That is a real cold airmass prior to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 18z GFS is pretty far seaward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 huh? You said yesterday you would not call for 40 inches this Jan but it looked pretty good, it was a joke reference. I am really hoping you do hit 40 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I don't know why TK is doing such a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Phil rejoices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 18z is a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 18z GFS showing long duration light snows developing over the Cape around hour 114. Northerly winds as high builds to the Northwest of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 18z is a scraper. Seems like all big ones play out like this..GFS OTS for many runs/days after having it..then brings it back days 2 and in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 18z gfs fits within the realm of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I still like that look. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Seems like all big ones play out like this..GFS OTS for many runs/days after having it..then brings it back days 2 and in True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Polar Vortex trends to the southwest of previous 12z run position as 18z run progresses. I think this is the risk we run with a semi block developing over Greenland and Davis Strait. I don't know how anyone can deny that a block develops in this timeframe. It may be rather weak, but its there regardless. That's why the GFS is a mess of a run with many shortwaves getting in the mix, one from the arctic and northern stream and southern stream gets crushed underneath the northern and arctic jet streams phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 18z GFS is certainly plausible. I don't mind a 24-36 hour duration light to moderate snowfall, as long as we get accumulations. Scott mentioned earlier today about a large circulation low pressure center, well there it is Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Let's hope the euro is locking in just like the blizzard last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 You said yesterday you would not call for 40 inches this Jan but it looked pretty good, it was a joke reference. I am really hoping you do hit 40 though. huh...i didn't say that. might have been scooter? not sure. but, yeah i'd take 40...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yes I said that. It was in reference to setting the bar to ridiculous 1994 levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The thng is even if we got a carbon copy little farts here and there might render a rather different solution vs 93-94. So if it happened you'd be cold and snowy but BOS might get 65 vs 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The thng is even if we got a carbon copy little farts here and there might render a rather different solution vs 93-94. So if it happened you'd be cold and snowy but BOS might get 65 vs 96. Right that's a good point. But when you throw analogs around, some of the more inexperienced enthusiasts might assume we get a similar weather pattern. There is a reason why we got buried. We have had similar patterns before, but that was perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 GEFS look decent. 0.5+ for much of the region and 0.75+ for BOS to PVD inside 128 and east for the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I still like that look. I'll take it. yeah as someone along the coastal plain, you have to like several aspects of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yes I said that. It was in reference to setting the bar to ridiculous 1994 levels. yeah i'm not expecting 40" in jan. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The thng is even if we got a carbon copy little farts here and there might render a rather different solution vs 93-94. So if it happened you'd be cold and snowy but BOS might get 65 vs 96. you bring up 94 every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The thng is even if we got a carbon copy little farts here and there might render a rather different solution vs 93-94. So if it happened you'd be cold and snowy but BOS might get 65 vs 96. you bring up 94 every year Because there is almost always a period of that pattern in every winter. The difference most times is that one lasted 2-3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The energy blasting SE through WRN Canada and flattening the western ridge scares me a bit, it may be the only thing that prevents this from becoming a a really major event because the ridge out west will be just de-amplified enough to prevent this sucker from really digging. I was just posting in the NYC thread this is a classic example of a storm that has no chance with a +NAO because that 50/50 feature or vortex in ERN Canada is the only thing that stops the disturbance at 500mb in WRN-CNTRL canada from completely sending the entire eastern trof offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 So you mean when we're already 6hrs into the event? Lol, I would probably wait another 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The energy blasting SE through WRN Canada and flattening the western ridge scares me a bit, it may be the only thing that prevents this from becoming a a really major event because the ridge out west will be just de-amplified enough to prevent this sucker from really digging. I was just posting in the NYC thread this is a classic example of a storm that has no chance with a +NAO because that 50/50 feature or vortex in ERN Canada is the only thing that stops the disturbance at 500mb in WRN-CNTRL canada from completely sending the entire eastern trof offshore. It's certainly not textbook by any means and reason to give pause. But it does have that PV in a good spot which aids in dropping a s/w at the tail end and a big ridge out west. So while the concern for a more seaward solution is there, at least it's not a crackhead solution where we have no idea why models are doing what they are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Let's hope the euro is locking in just like the blizzard last year. If the Euro verifed we would get clobbered. I wish winds were higher though. This reminds me of the March 8th? event where we got widespread 15" with a firehose. Huge bust for many mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 If the Euro verifed we would get clobbered. I wish winds were higher though. This reminds me of the March 8th? event where we got widespread 15" with a firehose. Huge bust for many mets. We would for sure. That is like textbook for significant snowfall here. That storm was awesome also, I got over 20 inches in each storm. I hope it verifies, ensembles look pretty good so it makes you wonder. I thin this is how it started last year with the blizzard. Euro came in big, and the others caved all the way to the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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