Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Well..as 90% of us get ready for another rainer..it's time to look forward to the frigid month of January and hopefully wire to wire snows. For many days modeling and ensembles have been keying on the Jan 2 into 3rd timeframe for a big snow event for most of the east coast. We're finally into the time range where we can begin to break things down . As of now it looks like it would start on the 2nd and end sometime on the 3rd. Looks to be a big qpf producer..and with the PV located where it is..we're not going to see ann inland runner. Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 DT going big dog STARDATE 201312.26 *************************NOTE .. what you are about to read is FORECAST / MODEL DISCUSSION and ANALYSIS .. not a actual SOLID forecast per se ...Continue Reading ... 53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 It's a classic system really, Ultimately ends up as an over runner but 1/4/94 seems a decent analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 A threat and that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The euro is pretty meh with this one as it sends the northern stream s/w out to sea under sne right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 It's definitely a threat. Every piece of guidance has something whether it be a wound up low or something further offshore. It's legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 We'll need heavy, heavy cooperation from the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 GFS gives snow..but in a strange way..2 lows..not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GFS gives EMA a nice snow storm, 6-8" on the clown maps early I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I've liked the 1/3 period for a while. Mentioned it in the pattern thread yesterday too. There's a few ways the threat could evolve...but there's going to be some energy riding down the eastern side of the western ridge which will frequently turn into something trackable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 I've liked the 1/3 period for a while. Mentioned it in the pattern thread yesterday too. There's a few ways the threat could evolve...but there's going to be some energy riding down the eastern side of the western ridge which will frequently turn into something trackable. What are the options in your mind? 1)Redevelopiong clipper? 2) Overrunning as moisture from sw is forced up and over PV/cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GFS gives snow..but in a strange way..2 lows..not likely Never like seeing that scenario, But not likely to play out that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 What are the options in your mind? 1)Redevelopiong clipper? 2) Overrunning as moisture from sw is forced up and over PV/cold? Both are possible...an uglier scenario could be a more phased cutter...but even then I think we'd see wintry precip on the front end. The clipper idea is the direction the Euro wants to go at the moment, but I'm not discounting some energy and moisture from the south yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GFS just is a weird evolution. It's either a clipper redeveloper or SWFE I think. I suppose it could really slow down and stall as it develops nearby if the enregy phases...but the GFS op seems a bit suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 There's also multiple shortwaves in the flow...you could get a clipper on 1/2 and a larger SWFE event on 1/4 or something...its probably going to take another day or so for the models to resolve exactly what gets "spit out" under the PV in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 It's a classic system really, Ultimately ends up as an over runner but 1/4/94 seems a decent analog. that would give parts of western PA over 2 feet of snow. I don't know if this system is going to be able to produce that type of QPF. Anyway my forum is dead and I have been following this one since you guys have some good insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 12z ggem, far more enticing imo. weak clipper on NYE, stronger clipper coming in thu/fri....and bitter cold in-between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 12z ggem, far more enticing imo. weak clipper on NYE, stronger clipper coming in thu/fri....and bitter cold in-between. If only! Guidance has snow for all of us. Can't ask for more 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 If only we could get something like the 6z GFS...and like 36 hours of strong easterly flow and moisture pouring in off the Atlantic... I could go for a big wound up system. Just picture this, but like 50 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GEFS are also more tasty. Further offshore, but more tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 If only we could get something like the 6z GFS...and like 36 hours of strong easterly flow and moisture pouring in off the Atlantic... I could go for a big wound up system. Just picture this, but like 50 miles south. How many times today are you going to post the 6z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 How many times today are you going to post the 6z GFS? Twice This is the thread it belongs in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I honestly like this threat much better than the 29th threat. For obvious reasons this one is a much more favorable situation evolving than the lack of cold air rainstorm that is about to embarked on New England south of the MA Pike. This is much more favorable situation as the Polar Vortex moves towards the 50/50 low position and we get some form of ridging in Greenland. This should block this storm from going up the APPS and into the Great Lakes, more so the fact is this will travel in a clipper track and pull some GOM moisture, I think it has the possibility of being a weaker version of the JAN 2005 KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I honestly like this threat much better than the 29th threat. For obvious reasons this one is a much more favorable situation evolving than the lack of cold air rainstorm that is about to embarked on New England south of the MA Pike. This is much more favorable situation as the Polar Vortex moves towards the 50/50 low position and we get some form of ridging in Greenland. This should block this storm from going up the APPS and into the Great Lakes, more so the fact is this will travel in a clipper track and pull some GOM moisture, I think it has the possibility of being a weaker version of the JAN 2005 KU. :axe: dah!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I honestly like this threat much better than the 29th threat. For obvious reasons this one is a much more favorable situation evolving than the lack of cold air rainstorm that is about to embarked on New England south of the MA Pike. This is much more favorable situation as the Polar Vortex moves towards the 50/50 low position and we get some form of ridging in Greenland. This should block this storm from going up the APPS and into the Great Lakes, more so the fact is this will travel in a clipper track and pull some GOM moisture, I think it has the possibility of being a weaker version of the JAN 2005 KU. Keep dreaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I honestly like this threat much better than the 29th threat. For obvious reasons this one is a much more favorable situation evolving than the lack of cold air rainstorm that is about to embarked on New England south of the MA Pike. This is much more favorable situation as the Polar Vortex moves towards the 50/50 low position and we get some form of ridging in Greenland. This should block this storm from going up the APPS and into the Great Lakes, more so the fact is this will travel in a clipper track and pull some GOM moisture, I think it has the possibility of being a weaker version of the JAN 2005 KU. Dude, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 :axe: dah!!!! Not a stronger version ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GEFS are also more tasty. Further offshore, but more tasty. Bleh. Is the EC showing anything noteworthy on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 euro really is boys cryin for their mamas cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Is this not what the GFS is showing, jeez, it turns into a 950mb monster in Atlantic Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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