winter_warlock Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 UKMET AT 144 HAS LOW IN SE US.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 UKMET AT 144 HAS LOW IN SE US.... Looks like it would be barely out to sea based on that image. H5 is still positively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 EURO AT 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 someone was posting liquid output for the euro in the philly thread that had .5 for DC and .25-.5 for NYC and Philly...not sure where they got that, the numerical output though I have for DC is about .17 total and Philly and NYC about the same... it cuts off at 180 hrs but the event should be about over by then. hmm i saw the same thing, but 6 days out im not worried about QPF that will change a few times by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 someone was posting liquid output for the euro in the philly thread that had .5 for DC and .25-.5 for NYC and Philly...not sure where they got that, the numerical output though I have for DC is about .17 total and Philly and NYC about the same... it cuts off at 180 hrs but the event should be about over by then. my maps show dc .5, phl .25, nyc .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Not a bad system at all and that would be really cool if it brought snow Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. That would be really nice. The upper air looks way better for this to develop into a nice storm based on this run as shown below.. EURO AT 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hmm i saw the same thing, but 6 days out im not worried about QPF that will change a few times by then I removed my post because when I checked the data it appears its old, never updated. The site seems slow tonight. either way just from the ewall graphics...I will take my chances with that h5 vort track and slp track and run with it. Might not be the blizzard of the GFS but its a white christmas for dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Not a bad system at all and that would be really cool if it brought snow Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. That would be really nice. The upper air looks way better for this to develop into a nice storm based on this run as shown below.. lol i told my wife i dont want nothing for christmass but this storm lol, it does lkook nice for mid atl, but alot can change in 5.5 days as we saw with the current ots system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 my maps show dc .5, phl .25, nyc .25 yea really sorry for the false info, my maps are usually updated by now so I did not check the timestamps but its old data. My bad, its late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 yea really sorry for the false info, my maps are usually updated by now so I did not check the timestamps but its old data. My bad, its late. no problem, it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I removed my post because when I checked the data it appears its old, never updated. The site seems slow tonight. either way just from the ewall graphics...I will take my chances with that h5 vort track and slp track and run with it. Might not be the blizzard of the GFS but its a white christmas for dc. oh wow, i better check mine too lol i saw the same data, oh well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 yea really sorry for the false info, my maps are usually updated by now so I did not check the timestamps but its old data. My bad, its late. hmm maybe we got it off of a slow site oh well anyhow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 i posted the KMA( korean) a page ago, anyone know exactly how reliable the kma is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think this threat is real not a model fantasy. Details of course will change. Will be fun tracking a possible xmas storm all week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 IF we get the PNA spike, this one might have a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 i posted the KMA( korean) a page ago, anyone know exactly how reliable the kma is? somewhere between asking the magic 8 ball and the farmers almanac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 i posted the KMA( korean) a page ago, anyone know exactly how reliable the kma is? The KMA is known for its progressive bias, although it joined in with the Thursday 12Z models showing a significant east coast storm before backing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think this threat is real not a model fantasy. Details of course will change. Will be fun tracking a possible xmas storm all week! i agree, i think the difference is... this... all models( except JMA have the storm at least in the vicinity of each other.. so thats something this last storm didnt have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The KMA is known for its progressive bias, although it joined in with the Thursday 12Z models showing a significant east coast storm before backing off. hmm ill take it with a grain of salt then lol ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 At 186 hours the phase occurs and the surface low deepens to 988 over the 40/70. Not too shabby to see some sort of agreement at this range. The height field isn't far off from the GFS, it just phases slightly later. That's about all we can say right now given the fragility of the pattern. I'm sure we will all be watching the next few days. yeah but it is big difference wrt sensible weather... the euro is Midwest clipper that doesnt do much for anyone until its off the coast. Its a Nice little xmas event the 0z gfs is a KU event from DCA to BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 i posted the KMA( korean) a page ago, anyone know exactly how reliable the kma is? It is the model that JI sleeps with every night, that should tell you all you need to know about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like it would be barely out to sea based on that image. H5 is still positively tilted. NO it is NOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 yeah but it is big difference wrt sensible weather... the euro is Midwest clipper that doesnt do much for anyone until its off the coast. Its a Nice little xmas event the 0z gfs is a KU event from DCA to BOS While you are right about the sensible weather aspect it is not a clipper it actually originates in the Pacific and emerges from the Rockies into Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It is the model that JI sleeps with every night, that should tell you all you need to know about it. well that and the JMA apparently JI a has a thing for pretty hot looking Koreans and Japanese Models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 yeah but it is big difference wrt sensible weather... the euro is Midwest clipper that doesnt do much for anyone until its off the coast. Its a Nice little xmas event the 0z gfs is a KU event from DCA to BOS How is that possible i thought a clipper originates in Alberta, this comes from the pacific?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 yeah but it is big difference wrt sensible weather... the euro is Midwest clipper that doesnt do much for anyone until its off the coast. Its a Nice little xmas event the 0z gfs is a KU event from DCA to BOS Sure..that's a result of the slightly later phase which creates big sensible weather changes. The Euro is actually really amplified with the shortwave as it crosses the country earlier in the week, builds up the ridge on the west coast in a big fashion, and is also phasing in the PV. All good things to see at +174 hrs. I think that's really all we can say right now. Plenty can and will change until this gets into a more forecast-able range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How is that possible i thought a clipper originates in Alberta, this comes from the pacific?. Alberta clippers do, there are also Saskatchawan Screamers and Manitoba Maulers and they are considered clippers also but your point is valid this is NOT a clipper. Dave's point about sensible weather is also true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It is the model that JI sleeps with every night, that should tell you all you need to know about it. LOL point well taken bud lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 my maps show dc .5, phl .25, nyc .25 Is it a consistent stripe of .25 or is there a dry area in E PA?? Also, do you get the print out of the GGEM too or no? Interested to see what QPF that puts out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Alberta clippers do, there are also Saskatchawan Screamers and Manitoba Maulers and they are considered clippers also but your point is valid this is NOT a clipper. Dave's point about sensible weather is also true. You learn something new every day, i thought they all started in Alberta. I juts hate the word clipper here, because we rarely get more than 1 or 2 inches with them. Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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