00Z models 12/18/10

[Guest someguy]

WHat? im not trying to disagree or argue with a Met, but with that low track? I doubt it.

yes ... but I would say snow to rain.... VERBATIM for the GFS

then back to snow

BWI stays all snow

the low Bombs out as it reaches the coast and the 850 Low at 156 hr moves N to DC

You DID check the 850 low track right?

I mean I presume you did NOT just look at the GFS surface Map and say "wow a BIG ... that Must mean snow... "

JI does this a LOT

[Alpha5]

Weenie run to the max

DC/Balt/Philly get a good dose of Feb 10 all over again

[Guest someguy]

Dave,

How would DC not get at least some snow from this event. Is there anyway this can be a complete miss or is it just now a matter of how much right now?

VERBATIM the GFS at 0z has snow... significant snow to rain then back to snow for DCA

HGR IAD BWI assuming the 0z GFS is right is all snow

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

If you look at the 500mb pattern at 138 hours the system should continue ENE or due east, not ESE or SE...the confluence or setup in SE Canada to me does not indicate that the disturbance would do anything in which its motion would be right of 90 degrees.

I see your point verbatim, but considering other models have the storm more suppressed im not concerned with rain at this point.

[pojrzsho]

you tell me whats there to have this hit the coast explode and move north. I dont see it...

I just think with the past 4 GFS runs, the Euro, and others, a few things seem much better than the missed storm this weekend:

1-There's actually a storm already formed before it reaches us

2-There's cold air in place for at least the POSSIBILITY of an over running event for many before the "bomb" solution

3-Tons of time to work out details, and the exacts, but one would have to say at least a 40% chance of snow from DC to NY on Christmas Day

Just a layman's reasoning

[SnowGoose69]

yes ... but I would say snow to rain.... VERBATIM for the GFS

then back to snow

BWI stays all snow

the low Bombs out as it reaches the coast and the 850 Low at 156 hr moves N to DC

You DID check the 850 low track right?

I mean I presume you did NOT just look at the GFS surface Map and say "wow a BIG ... that Must mean snow... "

JI does this a LOT

To me it resembles a semi SW flow type event before it reaches the OH Valley and from my experience the GFS and especially the NAM outside 48 hours always track SW flow events or any sort of west-east wave too far south.

[Guest someguy]

Wrong, the 12Z GFS had a bomb...not saying u should beleive it but it did.

YOu are 100% correct

I stand corrected

[Weather Czar]

VERBATIM the GFS at 0z has snow... significant snow to rain to snow for DCA

HGR IAD BWI assuming the 0z GFS is right is all snow

Why is the GFS bringing the storm farther north than the other models?

[jlewis1111]

Dave you expect the models to eventually move the low more north as it moves out of the planes or south? WHere do you see the low moving im thinking probally across nva

[Ji]

we might be getting lucky in which we have a rare 2 week window of El Nino type weather in A strong La Nina in which there is a STJ,PNA,-NAO and -AO. iF we can take advantage of this window, we will finish this winter with above normal snow

[Kevin Druff]

The 300+ hour storm actually tracks over central NC/VA and turns the majority of us Mid Atlantic folks over to rain for the height of the event.

[mitchnick]

we might be getting lucky in which we have a rare 2 week window of El Nino type weather in A strong La Nina in which there is a STJ,PNA,-NAO and -AO. iF we can take advantage of this window, we will finish this winter with above normal snow

IF it verifies, early 1/96 would be the closest analog

[pojrzsho]

The 300+ hour storm actually tracks over central NC/VA and turns the majority of us Mid Atlantic folks over to rain for the height of the event.

300 hours away for precip type is like saying David Akers is gonna try a 70 yard field goal and betting it splits the uprights. Might as well be 3000 hours for precip type!

[SnowGoose69]

300 hours away for precip type is like saying David Akers is gonna try a 70 yard field goal and betting it splits the uprights. Might as well be 3000 hours for precip type!

The setup is classic for a Lakes Cutter there anyhow, of course that will change a few times...I was thinking more Tynes kicking a 25 yarder.

[Guest someguy]

DT, I would appreciate a brief rundown of why this is exactly. Just trying to understand why the GFS would depict it this way with no synoptic support...is it one of those things where the model tends to over or underestimate something important, or is it just a fluke, or what?

It is the GFS cold Bias at work again.. . which yes I iknow the folks at EMC sya is gone.

what it is doing is that the Model is crashing the 500 MB heights very rapidly

which in turn allows the trough to cloes off a 500 mb Low at 162 and 168 hrs

which in tuns goes negative

it is the closed off he 500 low that has a severe negative tilt which is WHY the surface Low Slows downs.. if not out right stalls

and that is why the Low goes BOOM

the 12z gfs ensemble did NOT support this and neither did the 0z or 12z euro or euro ensemble

the is nothing downstream -- over the western or nw atlantic that I can see that would cause the s/w to slow down and close off like this

a Moderate Low? sure

accumulating snow? sure

THIS? naaaaah

[Kevin Druff]

300 hours away for precip type is like saying David Akers is gonna try a 70 yard field goal and betting it splits the uprights. Might as well be 3000 hours for precip type!

I didn't say I was really concerned with it playing out verbatim, was simply expressing my displeasure at the way it was depicted.

I can't tell you how many days of 35* and rain I suffered through here in Richmond the last several years. I f'ing hate them.

[Guest someguy]

The 300+ hour storm actually tracks over central NC/VA and turns the majority of us Mid Atlantic folks over to rain for the height of the event.

at 12z ...... the dec 31 event was west --- over the Ohio valley

[WeatherX]

To me it resembles a semi SW flow type event before it reaches the OH Valley and from my experience the GFS and especially the NAM outside 48 hours always track SW flow events or any sort of west-east wave too far south.

I doubt that we are going to get out of this pattern without some radical changes as shown on the GFS. But you never know....

[psuhoffman]

OMG why are we arguing over exactly where the rain/snow line is going to be on a storm 6 days away????? we aren/t even 3 weeks into winter, are we that desperate already?

[Guest someguy]

IF it verifies, early 1/96 would be the closest analog

strongly disagree

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

It is the GFS cold Bias at work again.. . which yes I iknow the folks at EMC sya is gone.

what it is doing is that the Model is crashing the 500 MB heights very rapidly

which in turn allows the trough to cloes off a 500 mb Low at 162 and 168 hrs

which in tuns goes negative

it is the closed off he 500 low that has a severe negative tilt which is WHY the surface Low Slows downs.. if not out right stalls

and that is why the Low goes BOOM

the 12z gfs ensemble did NOT support this and neither did the 0z or 12z euro or euro ensemble

the is nothing downstream -- over the western or nw atlantic that I can see that would cause the s/w to slow down and close off like this

a Moderate Low? sure

accumulating snow? sure

THIS? naaaaah

Just a question here obviously Im not as knowledgable as you are but how is it the GFS cold bias at work when the other models are the one that have it suppressed...Usually its the cold bias of the GFS that has a storm suppressed. not the case here.

[Swiscaster]

I'm going to proceed to light said snifter of brandy on fire and throw it in the air as my tribute of thanks to the Gods. After all, what's better than a little bit of snow on Christmas?

Does anyone else see the disconnect with this?

[mitchnick]

strongly disagree

he was talking about BOTH systems verifying

I was thinking total snow in a NINA for MA

but it doesn't matter since the chances of both storms verifying as depicted tonight are low

[SnowGoose69]

IF it verifies, early 1/96 would be the closest analog

12/5/03.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

OMG why are we arguing over exactly where the rain/snow line is going to be on a storm 6 days away????? we aren/t even 3 weeks into winter, are we that desperate already?

THIS PEOPLE!!!!

GIVE IT UP, IT'S JUST A WASTE AT THIS STAGE IN THE GAME

[Guest someguy]

Just a question here obviously Im not as knowledgable as you are but how is it the GFS cold bias at work when the other models are the one that have it suppressed...Usually its the cold bias of the GFS that has a storm suppressed. not the case here.

b/c that isnt what I said

I did NOT bsay the GFS cold biss is suppressing the Low track

I said it is causing the Model to crash the heights too quickly

the other models have it further south but

they dont close off the 500 Low

they dont have the s/w going negative

and the Low does not bomb out on ANY OTHER MODEL ....OF ANY KIND to 976 mb

[SACRUS]

GGEM 120 looks better further north with the sw

[Kevin Druff]

at 12z ...... the dec 31 event was west --- over the Ohio valley

I'd almost rather that happen. At least then I won't have to suffer through the pictures of my nephews in the Shen. Valley playing in the snow while it's 35* and raining here.

[MDstorm]

<br />According to GFS conditionals Im not seeing rain for DCA maybe you can help me out with that.<br /><img src="http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs168hr_sfc_ptyp.gif" /><br />

<br /><br /><br />

This map is off of the 12Z run.

MDstorm

[SnowGoose69]

One thing is for sure, the GFS is in its own world with how weak it has the Canadian low.