BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 DT, Im not sure why your freaking out about 850 temps 150 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 180 hrs 976 mb s of the benchmark blizzard for NYC CT RI southeast Mass this is silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The GFS continues to be weaker with the 500mb low in Canada....whether its right or not I don't know...but I'll tell you where its wrong, the fact its not THAT much north of where the 12Z Euro was...based on how the GFS depicts that 500 low this storm track is too far south....this goes at best off the Delmarava, maybe off SNJ with that pattern IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 180 hrs 976 mb s of the benchmark blizzard for NYC CT RI southeast Mass this is silly I'd appreciate understanding why you consider it silly. Is something wrong with the upper level set up to not allow the formation of this thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Fun run.....of course it's wrong though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Please Explain thanks. Look at last night's gfs... had super Bombs the 0z 6z and 12z did not have that solution the 0z euro did not the 0z euro ensemble did not the 0z and 12z GFS ensembles do not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 so a little slower now thus 50/50 and confluent influence less and storm goes a little north of earlier depictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 so a little slower now thus 50/50 and confluent influence less and storm goes a little north of earlier depictions Not far enough north still...typical GFS bias there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This run dosnt make sense at all no way in hell this pans out. ZERO CHANCE Reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'd appreciate understanding why you consider it silly. Is something wrong with the upper level set up to not allow the formation of this thing? see post 37 there is NO synoptoic reason why this is going close off and go severely negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Reasoning? its doesnt give him snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Look at last night's gfs... had super Bombs the 0z 6z and 12z did not have that solution the 0z euro did not the 0z euro ensemble did not the 0z and 12z GFS ensembles do not Wrong, the 12Z GFS had a bomb...not saying u should beleive it but it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 IF we get the PNA spike, this one might have a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Dave, How would DC not get at least some snow from this event. Is there anyway this can be a complete miss or is it just now a matter of how much right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Through 180 and there's more after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I agree totally that the GFS is out to lunch with its negative tilt super phase bias lol... However, it does look like this one would have enough juice to at least whiten things up for Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 see post 37 there is NO synoptoic reason why this is going close off and go severely negative DT, I would appreciate a brief rundown of why this is exactly. Just trying to understand why the GFS would depict it this way with no synoptic support...is it one of those things where the model tends to over or underestimate something important, or is it just a fluke, or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Look at last night's gfs... had super Bombs the 0z 6z and 12z did not have that solution the 0z euro did not the 0z euro ensemble did not the 0z and 12z GFS ensembles do not Had super Bombs? 12Z does show this solution. Even wetter then this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How would DC not get at least some snow from this event. Is there anyway this can be a complete miss or is it just now a matter of how much right now? If the GFS setup is correct DC SHOULD get rain out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Reasoning? you tell me whats there to have this hit the coast explode and move north. I dont see it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 its doesnt give him snow Actually, it's because you said so. He's here in RVA, so it does bring him snow. 0* lines were awfully close to us on this run. Frankly, I could care less about the details right now. The GFS and the Euro have both shown snow falling on Christmas Eve/Christmas morning for several runs and with similar solutions, and I am excited by the prospect. Whether it's 8" like the 18z GFS showed or ~4-5" like the 12z euro showed, I'm going to do a jig, thank the snow gods for my good fortune, and pour a great big snifter of warmed brandy. I'm going to take said snifter out just after sunset on Christmas day before my family sits down to dinner. I'm going to proceed to light said snifter of brandy on fire and throw it in the air as my tribute of thanks to the Gods. After all, what's better than a little bit of snow on Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 If the GFS setup is correct DC SHOULD get rain out of this. WHat? im not trying to disagree or argue with a Met, but with that low track? I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 WHat? im not trying to disagree or argue with a Met, but with that low track? I doubt it. If you look at the 500mb pattern at 138 hours the system should continue ENE or due east, not ESE or SE...the confluence or setup in SE Canada to me does not indicate that the disturbance would do anything in which its motion would be right of 90 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 SnowGoose I do understand that there would be WAA ahead of the storm with the positioning of that low, but dont forget there is a lot of confluence that helps hold the cold air in place. Ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 HM storm incoming at 300 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Hr. 300. LOL. Happy New Years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It's still out beyond the stage of reality at this point, but the GFS continues to model a STRONG Miller-A type system a week after the Christmas threat (see 300 hour GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 SnowGoose I do understand that there would be WAA ahead of the storm with the positioning of that low, but dont forget there is a lot of confluence that helps hold the cold air in place. Ice? i think he is just trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think everyone should not think either way until thursday to be honest with you. Look what just happened with our storm tomorrow. Huge MECS and look nothing up and down the coast. I dont trust any model now since we are in this freaking la nina pattern. Nothing seems to be working out for anyone on the east coast. Seems like the last 3 wks we have been thinking the big one was coming to get nada.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This is interesting....if this flattens out over the next several runs you can toss this run....but it does look like the PNA is going to spike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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