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00Z models 12/18/10


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The GFS continues to be weaker with the 500mb low in Canada....whether its right or not I don't know...but I'll tell you where its wrong, the fact its not THAT much north of where the 12Z Euro was...based on how the GFS depicts that 500 low this storm track is too far south....this goes at best off the Delmarava, maybe off SNJ with that pattern IMO.

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Guest someguy

Please Explain thanks.

Look at last night's gfs...

had super Bombs

the 0z 6z and 12z did not have that solution

the 0z euro did not

the 0z euro ensemble did not

the 0z and 12z GFS ensembles do not

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Guest someguy

I'd appreciate understanding why you consider it silly. Is something wrong with the upper level set up to not allow the formation of this thing?

see post 37

there is NO synoptoic reason why this is going close off and go severely negative

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see post 37

there is NO synoptoic reason why this is going close off and go severely negative

DT, I would appreciate a brief rundown of why this is exactly. Just trying to understand why the GFS would depict it this way with no synoptic support...is it one of those things where the model tends to over or underestimate something important, or is it just a fluke, or what?

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its doesnt give him snow

Actually, it's because you said so. He's here in RVA, so it does bring him snow. 0* lines were awfully close to us on this run.

Frankly, I could care less about the details right now. The GFS and the Euro have both shown snow falling on Christmas Eve/Christmas morning for several runs and with similar solutions, and I am excited by the prospect.

Whether it's 8" like the 18z GFS showed or ~4-5" like the 12z euro showed, I'm going to do a jig, thank the snow gods for my good fortune, and pour a great big snifter of warmed brandy. I'm going to take said snifter out just after sunset on Christmas day before my family sits down to dinner. I'm going to proceed to light said snifter of brandy on fire and throw it in the air as my tribute of thanks to the :snowman: Gods. After all, what's better than a little bit of snow on Christmas?

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WHat? im not trying to disagree or argue with a Met, but with that low track? I doubt it.

If you look at the 500mb pattern at 138 hours the system should continue ENE or due east, not ESE or SE...the confluence or setup in SE Canada to me does not indicate that the disturbance would do anything in which its motion would be right of 90 degrees.

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I think everyone should not think either way until thursday to be honest with you. Look what just happened with our storm tomorrow. Huge MECS and look nothing up and down the coast. I dont trust any model now since we are in this freaking la nina pattern. Nothing seems to be working out for anyone on the east coast. Seems like the last 3 wks we have been thinking the big one was coming to get nada....

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