BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Relative agreement that the clipper will not be much a factor for the Mid Atl or NE for that matter, time to forget the clipper and move solely on to the Xmas event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Im not sure what role it would play in the big picture of the Xmas day storm, but the NAM slows the clipper down and barely moves it from 72 hour to 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 What else are you seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 3:11 AM, MD Mad Man said: What else are you seeing? Thats the NAM model, the furthest it goes is 84 hours, like I said it seems to be holding back the clipper a bit, Im not sure what that means for furture runs, but the NAM at 84 hours isnt all that reliable anyway...GFS in about a half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 3:25 AM, SnowGoose69 said: The 00Z GFS is going to take the X-Mas storm to Bermuda. Quote NCEP Operational Status MessageSun Dec 19 01:56:24 2010 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 190155 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0153Z SUN DEC 19 2010 THE NCEP 00Z MODEL CYCLE STARTED ON TIME. 00Z RAOB RECAP... LBF/72562 - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEMS... KPP/78970 - 10159; NOT AVAILABLE... ANN/70398 - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS... BET/70219 - NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM... MFL/72202 - PURGE TEMPS AND HUMDITY 510 TO 465MB COLD... KWA/91366 - PURGE HTS/TEMPS/HUMIDITY 400MB UP HIGH..SPARSE DATA.. $$ SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Quote Most storms that effect western NC with heavy snow, will not effect areas north of southeast VA and the lower Delmarva with heavy precip.Most storms that effect eastern NC with heavy snow, will not effect areas north of southeast VA and the lower Delmarva with heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro have been consistent in showing a threat for xmas the last 2 days, however we are not heading into a time period where they often begin to suppress events. I would actually like to see the GFS trend south right now and have this as a NC event for a few days. If it continues to show this as a DC snowstorm I would get nervous this ends trending too far north when the normal northward adjustment happens the last 72 hours. Just my 2 cents but I am rooting for the guidance to have this a little south right now, but I still want to see a nice energetic system where we do not need perfect timing and phasing just the normal north trend in the h5 vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 One thing is becoming consistently more apparent. Clipper will not affect Mid-Atlantic Tue/Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 When comparing to the potent 12z run, 0z surface is better organized out west, and east coast looks slightly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 that clipper dissolved on this run. amazing.!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 4:11 AM, pojrzsho said: When comparing to the potent 12z run, 0z surface is better organized out west, and east coast looks slightly colder Probably not important though, the most important thing is when it phases with the northern stream, and if it turns up the coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 4:12 AM, mdsnowlover said: that clipper dissolved on this run. amazing.!!! Sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 4:12 AM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Probably not important though, the most important thing is when it phases with the northern stream, and if it turns up the coast.... You are right, I like to compare runs, looks consistent overall with 12z slow 0z run, been stuck on 90 on Raleigh site for awhile now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 At 108 our storm is starting to get going with light to mod precip in northern plains and light precip in south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 at 126 low in norther Oklahoma light to moderate precip throughout the plains states...Looks OK so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 132 hrs the Low is strong and south over Bolwing Green KY 1006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like a big snowstorm for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 again, just by surface map, colder in east than 12z, slower with storm overall, and much more surface precip out west on 0z, compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 156 hrs 1000 mb over RDU 0 850 isotherm over RIC +4c over ORF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 4:21 AM, pojrzsho said: again, just by surface map, colder in east than 12z, slower with storm overall, and much more surface precip out west on 0z, compared to 12z THIS is wrong 12z GFS at 850 was colder over VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 00Z GFS, 150hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Philly getting a bomb job at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 168 =-==988 mb 100-150 miles due of sny heavy snow over DCA BWI PHL about to reach NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 at hour 150 1004 low western NC/Eastern TN light to mod precip up to MD/PA line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 988 off delmarva at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS is doing what the 0z run did last night... its lost its fooking mind 500 MB low clsoes off at 156 hrs and at 168 serious negative tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 4:23 AM, someguy said: THIS is wrong 12z GFS at 850 was colder over VA Sorry, talking about hr 96 on 0z, compared to 108 on 12z.....My run stalled :- )......seems like storm is taking it's time comparing 126 0z to 138 12z no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 4:25 AM, someguy said: GFS is doing what the 0z run did last night... its lost its fooking mind Please Explain thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Obviously I like what I see, it may be a touch slower though, which may be a good thing, but keeping the suspense up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 982mb i 95 getting nailed hr 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 East coast massacre at 177 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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