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00Z models 12/18/10


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The 00Z GFS is going to take the X-Mas storm to Bermuda.

NCEP Operational Status Message

Sun Dec 19 01:56:24 2010 GMT

NOUS42 KWNO 190155

ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD

0153Z SUN DEC 19 2010

THE NCEP 00Z MODEL CYCLE STARTED ON TIME.

00Z RAOB RECAP...

LBF/72562 - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEMS...

KPP/78970 - 10159; NOT AVAILABLE...

ANN/70398 - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS...

BET/70219 - NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM...

MFL/72202 - PURGE TEMPS AND HUMDITY 510 TO 465MB COLD...

KWA/91366 - PURGE HTS/TEMPS/HUMIDITY 400MB UP HIGH..SPARSE DATA..

$$

SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

Most storms that effect western NC with heavy snow, will not effect areas north of southeast VA and the lower Delmarva with heavy precip.

Most storms that effect eastern NC with heavy snow, will not effect areas north of southeast VA and the lower Delmarva with heavy precip.

:snowman:

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The GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro have been consistent in showing a threat for xmas the last 2 days, however we are not heading into a time period where they often begin to suppress events. I would actually like to see the GFS trend south right now and have this as a NC event for a few days. If it continues to show this as a DC snowstorm I would get nervous this ends trending too far north when the normal northward adjustment happens the last 72 hours. Just my 2 cents but I am rooting for the guidance to have this a little south right now, but I still want to see a nice energetic system where we do not need perfect timing and phasing just the normal north trend in the h5 vort.

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Guest someguy

again, just by surface map, colder in east than 12z, slower with storm overall, and much more surface precip out west on 0z, compared to 12z

THIS is wrong

12z GFS at 850 was colder over VA

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Guest someguy

GFS is doing what the 0z run did last night...

its lost its fooking mind

500 MB low clsoes off at 156 hrs and at 168 serious negative tilt

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