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December 29th System


moneypitmike

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It's another reason why I don't like this set up as a pure rainer.

First of all, even the GFS would end as snow for about ORH and points N or eastern/central Mass. But, being that we are in a baser pattern of cold anomalies, it would really be a feat of fairly significant convenience to warm solution for the cold environs to just happen to key-slot timing that to take place.

Then again ... I guess we "needle thread" for snow sometimes, so maybe it goes the other way, too.

Ha! This is a reverse thread the needle scenario. This has to be timed just right for it to be an all rain storm. And I bet it does.
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The problem with SNE and the high to the north is that there is an arctic front with a parent low in the way. So either need to weaken that or have it pushed further SE, stronger secondary low, and also a further SE track of the secondary. Otherwise it's wasted QPF.

 

Certainly more obstacles to overcome then up here

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I almost think we won't need it to get to at least a blue snow...  Rotted air by then, sure, but with marginality, strong UVM and frontogenic forcing associated with closing surfaces aloft can get the job done from what I am looking at.   

 

But yeah, should arctic air get involved than this thing winds up like a top and all the models are probably underdone by a bit...

 

I think it depends on where you are. Higher elevations and near SNH won't need it, but the further south you are..the more you will have to rely on other things. Still time to see what happens.

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GGEM tracks the system up from NYC through ORH...good snow for powderfreak over to Vim Toot.

 

I'm getting a bad feeling for this.  At least we have 3.5 days for it to be defined more clearly to either bolster enthusiasm or to be prepared for rain.  My pure hunch is that this will become a pretty clear system for the bulk of SNE.

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Ha ha, Steve - wow.  I was just skimming over a few operational run types from 00z and thinking, "Gee, this is almost a blue bomb." 

 

Then I figured I'd see what is the latest and greatest on the blogosphere and the very first post I see is, "Blue Bomb for ORH county."

 

..ah, yeah... anyway, the 00z Euro had 850's at 0C along the CT/RI border with Mass (perhaps the Pike), with a vortex track SE of that nexas, in a juicy, albeit marginal column. Could see it snowing chuncks down to 1/4" vis with thunder from just NW of HFD to my neck of the woods in that sort of evolution.  

 

Southern stream system that truly does capture a wave out of the Gulf means very efficient transport of high PWAT air regardless of sensible impact.  Seeing the Euro trend colder, and seeing the GFS is only +1C at 850 on the NW flank of the closing vortex at that level are interesting signals to say the least.  

 

For most and for now we gotta go cold rain, but now that we are past mid December, and considering the background longer term pattern is a cold anomaly ...it's worth mentioning.  

Two sensible wx analogs are floating through my head right now....the 2nd wave of the Dec 1996 double-header, which forever lives in infamy in my region, and 12/23/97.

Obviously, I'm rooting on the latter, but ORH CO and GC are good to go regardless.

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I'm getting a bad feeling for this.  At least we have 3.5 days for it to be defined more clearly to either bolster enthusiasm or to be prepared for rain.  My pure hunch is that this will become a pretty clear system for the bulk of SNE.

Who cares about the GEM right now.

Its always extreme.

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I'm getting a bad feeling for this.  At least we have 3.5 days for it to be defined more clearly to either bolster enthusiasm or to be prepared for rain.  My pure hunch is that this will become a pretty clear system for the bulk of SNE.

 

Qpf worrys?

 

Who cares about the GEM right now.

Its always extreme.

 

When was the last time it was right? I can't remember and i know it always gets mentioned

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Who cares about the GEM right now.

Its always extreme.

 

 

It def is the extreme outlier right now.

 

 

The GEFS members are interesting to look at...clearly the ones with a more defined SE secondary are giving us a better shot at snow and the ones with a weaker secondary and/or more defined primary northwest of us are the ones that are useless scenarios for snow lovers in SNE.

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It def is the extreme outlier right now.

 

 

The GEFS members are interesting to look at...clearly the ones with a more defined SE secondary are giving us a better shot at snow and the ones with a weaker secondary and/or more defined primary northwest of us are the ones that are useless scenarios for snow lovers in SNE.

Knowing this sesaon, we will get a clearly defined secondary.

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I think it depends on where you are. Higher elevations and near SNH won't need it, but the further south you are..the more you will have to rely on other things. Still time to see what happens.

 

I personally think this thing is just going to trend colder anyway...  

 

I know many a-folk (not you per se) like to overtly downplay possibilities and/or to dig and dig for all the negatives because they get themselves emotionally tied to this crap, and therefore need to take on a "defensive posture" so to fend off the possibility of having their heart broken ..., but that is not me... I don't have any dogs in that race, so I have no compunctions about saying that I think we could wind up with 10 in blue snow, and that I see these small cooling trend/increments across successive cycles regarding details as waving flags.  If it doesn't, meh -- who cares. 

 

By the way, did you guys see the D-5 Euro cold in Ontario? Holy sh!t    -38C over southern James Bay isn't all that far away when we have a NNW wind blowing in our direction.  Wow.  It gets down to -30C at 850mb, as far S as BTV's latitude for a period heading into D7.  I wonder if we can plug a historic temp outta that deal.  

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I personally think this thing is just going to trend colder anyway...  

 

I know many a-folk (not you per se) like to overtly downplay possibilities and/or to dig and dig for all the negatives because they get themselves emotionally tied to this crap, and therefore need to take on a "defensive posture" so to fend off the possibility of having their heart broken ..., but that is not me... I don't have any dogs in that race, so I have no compunctions about saying that I think we could wind up with 10 in blue snow, and that I see these small cooling trend/increments across successive cycles regarding details as waving flags.  If it doesn't, meh -- who cares. 

 

By the way, did you guys see the D-5 Euro cold in Ontario? Holy sh!t    -38C over southern James Bay isn't all that far away when we have a NNW wind blowing in our direction.  Wow.  It gets down to -30C at 850mb, as far S as BTV's latitude for a period heading into D7.  I wonder if we can plug a historic temp outta that deal.  

Never.

 

I have noted that for the most part you are a bastion of emotional stability.

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I also have tended to notice that you never, ever stray from the norm with regard to your choice of words.

Not exotically so, anyway....

 

But I do it by choice - HA ...

 

annyway, I guess if I get "upset" by anything in this business its when busting -- so I'm p-ode all the time.  j/k.  

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We're probably going to end up with around 30" of snow for the month of December.

 

Remember 2007 ( I think it was...).  That was an amazing display of single month totals eclipsing 40" in a lot of places for that one December.  And, what made that particularly fascinating for me is that the majority of that mass came by way of front-end thumps ahead of cutters.  That's like playing with house money right there...

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Remember 2007 ( I think it was...).  That was an amazing display of single month totals eclipsing 40" in a lot of places for that one December.  And, what made that particularly fascinating for me is that the majority of that mass came by way of front-end thumps ahead of cutters.  That's like playing with house money right there...

Yea, 2007.

 

I had 34", I think.

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