NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 It's another reason why I don't like this set up as a pure rainer. First of all, even the GFS would end as snow for about ORH and points N or eastern/central Mass. But, being that we are in a baser pattern of cold anomalies, it would really be a feat of fairly significant convenience to warm solution for the cold environs to just happen to key-slot timing that to take place. Then again ... I guess we "needle thread" for snow sometimes, so maybe it goes the other way, too. Ha! This is a reverse thread the needle scenario. This has to be timed just right for it to be an all rain storm. And I bet it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The problem with SNE and the high to the north is that there is an arctic front with a parent low in the way. So either need to weaken that or have it pushed further SE, stronger secondary low, and also a further SE track of the secondary. Otherwise it's wasted QPF. Certainly more obstacles to overcome then up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 12z GFS advertising a dumpage for the 29th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I almost think we won't need it to get to at least a blue snow... Rotted air by then, sure, but with marginality, strong UVM and frontogenic forcing associated with closing surfaces aloft can get the job done from what I am looking at. But yeah, should arctic air get involved than this thing winds up like a top and all the models are probably underdone by a bit... I think it depends on where you are. Higher elevations and near SNH won't need it, but the further south you are..the more you will have to rely on other things. Still time to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Maybe its worth waiting until January 1st after all to go skiing in Vermont, if they get snow out of this storm. SR looks sweet today I am sure Messenger is having a ball with freshies on top of all the snow they blew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 GGEM tracks the system up from NYC through ORH...good snow for powderfreak over to Vim Toot. I'm getting a bad feeling for this. At least we have 3.5 days for it to be defined more clearly to either bolster enthusiasm or to be prepared for rain. My pure hunch is that this will become a pretty clear system for the bulk of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Ha ha, Steve - wow. I was just skimming over a few operational run types from 00z and thinking, "Gee, this is almost a blue bomb." Then I figured I'd see what is the latest and greatest on the blogosphere and the very first post I see is, "Blue Bomb for ORH county." ..ah, yeah... anyway, the 00z Euro had 850's at 0C along the CT/RI border with Mass (perhaps the Pike), with a vortex track SE of that nexas, in a juicy, albeit marginal column. Could see it snowing chuncks down to 1/4" vis with thunder from just NW of HFD to my neck of the woods in that sort of evolution. Southern stream system that truly does capture a wave out of the Gulf means very efficient transport of high PWAT air regardless of sensible impact. Seeing the Euro trend colder, and seeing the GFS is only +1C at 850 on the NW flank of the closing vortex at that level are interesting signals to say the least. For most and for now we gotta go cold rain, but now that we are past mid December, and considering the background longer term pattern is a cold anomaly ...it's worth mentioning. Two sensible wx analogs are floating through my head right now....the 2nd wave of the Dec 1996 double-header, which forever lives in infamy in my region, and 12/23/97. Obviously, I'm rooting on the latter, but ORH CO and GC are good to go regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 One more trend colder..Is that really to much to ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I'm getting a bad feeling for this. At least we have 3.5 days for it to be defined more clearly to either bolster enthusiasm or to be prepared for rain. My pure hunch is that this will become a pretty clear system for the bulk of SNE. Who cares about the GEM right now. Its always extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I'm getting a bad feeling for this. At least we have 3.5 days for it to be defined more clearly to either bolster enthusiasm or to be prepared for rain. My pure hunch is that this will become a pretty clear system for the bulk of SNE. Qpf worrys? Who cares about the GEM right now. Its always extreme. When was the last time it was right? I can't remember and i know it always gets mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Who cares about the GEM right now. Its always extreme. It def is the extreme outlier right now. The GEFS members are interesting to look at...clearly the ones with a more defined SE secondary are giving us a better shot at snow and the ones with a weaker secondary and/or more defined primary northwest of us are the ones that are useless scenarios for snow lovers in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 It def is the extreme outlier right now. The GEFS members are interesting to look at...clearly the ones with a more defined SE secondary are giving us a better shot at snow and the ones with a weaker secondary and/or more defined primary northwest of us are the ones that are useless scenarios for snow lovers in SNE. Knowing this sesaon, we will get a clearly defined secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Ray, I thought of the '96 one too lol. Although, that setup had better antecedent air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Knowing this sesaon, we will get a clearly defined secondary. Euro and ensembles were showing that near the BM hence why it was practically a Tippy Tree Trouncer for you. Hopefully 12z holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I think it depends on where you are. Higher elevations and near SNH won't need it, but the further south you are..the more you will have to rely on other things. Still time to see what happens. I personally think this thing is just going to trend colder anyway... I know many a-folk (not you per se) like to overtly downplay possibilities and/or to dig and dig for all the negatives because they get themselves emotionally tied to this crap, and therefore need to take on a "defensive posture" so to fend off the possibility of having their heart broken ..., but that is not me... I don't have any dogs in that race, so I have no compunctions about saying that I think we could wind up with 10 in blue snow, and that I see these small cooling trend/increments across successive cycles regarding details as waving flags. If it doesn't, meh -- who cares. By the way, did you guys see the D-5 Euro cold in Ontario? Holy sh!t -38C over southern James Bay isn't all that far away when we have a NNW wind blowing in our direction. Wow. It gets down to -30C at 850mb, as far S as BTV's latitude for a period heading into D7. I wonder if we can plug a historic temp outta that deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Ray, I thought of the '96 one too lol. Although, that setup had better antecedent air. This is a bit later in the season, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I personally think this thing is just going to trend colder anyway... I know many a-folk (not you per se) like to overtly downplay possibilities and/or to dig and dig for all the negatives because they get themselves emotionally tied to this crap, and therefore need to take on a "defensive posture" so to fend off the possibility of having their heart broken ..., but that is not me... I don't have any dogs in that race, so I have no compunctions about saying that I think we could wind up with 10 in blue snow, and that I see these small cooling trend/increments across successive cycles regarding details as waving flags. If it doesn't, meh -- who cares. By the way, did you guys see the D-5 Euro cold in Ontario? Holy sh!t -38C over southern James Bay isn't all that far away when we have a NNW wind blowing in our direction. Wow. It gets down to -30C at 850mb, as far S as BTV's latitude for a period heading into D7. I wonder if we can plug a historic temp outta that deal. Never. I have noted that for the most part you are a bastion of emotional stability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 You know it's cold when you can't even get dendrites to clump ...like at all. Currently have a nice little burst of 3/4 mi vis dust up here in Ayer at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Euro and ensembles were showing that near the BM hence why it was practically a Tippy Tree Trouncer for you. Hopefully 12z holds. That is the camp in which I reside. The OP and ECENS hold their ground, and its time to honk imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Never. I have noted that for the most part you are a bastion of emotional stability. Lol although "bastion" is an odd word choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Lol although "bastion" is an odd word choice I also have tended to notice that you never, ever stray from the norm with regard to your choice of words. Not exotically so, anyway.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 This is funny ... it's like "F-5 F-5 F-5 F-5 F-5 ... n-times of F-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I also have tended to notice that you never, ever stray from the norm with regard to your choice of words. Not exotically so, anyway.... But I do it by choice - HA ... annyway, I guess if I get "upset" by anything in this business its when busting -- so I'm p-ode all the time. j/k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 But I do it by choice - HA ... annyway, I guess if I get "upset" by anything in this business its when busting -- so I'm p-ode all the time. j/k. We're probably going to end up with around 30" of snow for the month of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Models are trending colder and with blocking coming too. next week storm on Monday likely to be snowstorm and ice for inland sne area just north of i-95 area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Well, I guess I can cancel that wait for the EURO products. Sound the alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Models are trending colder and with blocking coming too. next week storm on Monday likely to be snowstorm and ice for inland sne area just north of i-95 area .my man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 We're probably going to end up with around 30" of snow for the month of December. Remember 2007 ( I think it was...). That was an amazing display of single month totals eclipsing 40" in a lot of places for that one December. And, what made that particularly fascinating for me is that the majority of that mass came by way of front-end thumps ahead of cutters. That's like playing with house money right there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Remember 2007 ( I think it was...). That was an amazing display of single month totals eclipsing 40" in a lot of places for that one December. And, what made that particularly fascinating for me is that the majority of that mass came by way of front-end thumps ahead of cutters. That's like playing with house money right there... Yea, 2007. I had 34", I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Perhaps a scenario where most places start as rain and turn to snow as it bombs to our SE is plausible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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