December 29th System

[CoastalWx]

This!

Congrats on a paste bomb. LOL.

[40/70 Benchmark]

At this point, the trend is in the right direction. All you can say now IMHO.

Yuppers.

[CoastalWx]

Would be great for some more trending to have some snow otg for the big cold following this system.

I agree. Don't want a winter of wasted cold.

[CoastalWx]

I don't have a degree in Met., but I'll take your word for it! Surprised this one changed so quickly in one run...

It really hasnt. It's marginal so 1 degree either way means a lot.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This!

Seconded.

 

The cold always seems slower to be removed, AND slower to bleed in.

[NorEastermass128]

The chance of all snow for you is about 3%.

So you're saying there's a chance? Nice.

Someone's getting an isothermal blue snow bomb out of this.

[Digityman]

Unless the weekend warms enough in Maine to rid the trees of ice, any large snowstorm will be a major mess, and if it becomes a paste bomb up here (looks doubtful, I think), "mess" = "disaster".

 

We got power back late evening Christmas Eve.  Only made it to 18 yesterday so the trees still have .10-.20 of ice on them, especially in the shade.  

Paste bomb wouldn't be good at this point but I think the sun/warm melts enough off Friday/Saturday to make it a non-issue.  

Still looks pretty though.

[N. OF PIKE]

This!

That front stuck in NNE is something that made me puke a few days ago when pf posted it.

Its why i have difficulty seeing ray snow in this

I think its a "elevated interior deal" 850' or so plus if the track is ideal , maybe some glop near 495 if there are great rates later in storm, but ya orh county up thru w fit to birving and then jus south of Rochester nh over to sw maine just away from coast.

Id take birving spot and combo of latitude and elevation right now

[40/70 Benchmark]

That front stuck in NNE is something that made me puke a few days ago when pf posted it.

Its why i have difficulty seeing ray snow in this

I think its a "elevated interior deal" 850' or so plus if the track is ideal , maybe some glop near 495 if there are great rates later in storm, but ya orh county up thru w fit to birving and then jus south of Rochester nh over to sw maine just away from coast.

Id take birving spot and combo of latitude and elevation right now

I agree, but we'll see....if the EURO remains insistent....

 

You also have to remember that the sun angle has reached it's nadir, and we are nearing climo's coldest point.

 

This is the time of year for it to occur.

[moneypitmike]

Congrats on a paste bomb. LOL.

 

 

It really hasnt. It's marginal so 1 degree either way means a lot.

 

 

I'm concerned about your second statement.  While I think Whiteminster and I are best situated for this, its a real 'walk the line' scenario.  Things may become much more clearly defined over the next couple of days.  But 3.5 days out, this could be anything from powder to rain when all is said and done.  I'm pretty comfortable ruling out dry, however. 

 

21.3/19

[N. OF PIKE]

I agree, but we'll see....if the EURO remains insistent....

You also have to remember that the sun angle has reached it's nadir, and we are nearing climo's coldest point.

This is the time of year for it to occur.

Yup, agreed.

Which is why i wanted to know if there was any sort of n drain for your area , to help BL temps.

It looks based on track like a cf may set up in ne mass (while temp contrast may not be sharp ...) could be r/s line so that is something to watch

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yup, agreed.

Which is why i wanted to know if there was any sort of n drain for your area , to help BL temps.

This time of year, all a dynamic system needs is climo at this latitude....not "cold"....

[Whineminster]

It really hasnt. It's marginal so 1 degree either way means a lot.

 

That's a good point.  I just made assumptions based on the NWS' discussion 

MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN UPPER JETS ARE NOW FORECAST TO

PHASE DURING SUNDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO TAP A

MORE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES PAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE

PHASING SUGGESTS DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST RESULTING

IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS LEAVES ROOM FOR THE SURFACE

COASTAL LOW TO EDGE CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS IS A STORMIER SCENARIO FOR US THAN WAS DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO.

WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT THIS SUDDEN CHANGE DOESN/T GO BACK THE

OTHER WAY JUST AS FAST.

 

[cny rider]

Please indulge a newbish question if you would.

I'm looking at the GFS 84 hour 850 temps on the AmWx model center.

There is a solid deep blue line labeled 0C.

There is a lighter but also solid blue line labeled 32.

I would think they are showing the same thing; why are there 2 lines and why do they diverge from each other especially over PA and the southern tier of NY?

 

Thanks.

[ORH_wxman]

There is a frigid high to the north near Maine and Quebec...if the secondary can become dominant pretty early, then its going to draw in some of that cold so help out the BL...but if the primary stays strong too long and keeps the sfc flow from tapping that high....then its much tougher.

[CoastalWx]

That's a good point.  I just made assumptions based on the NWS' discussion 

MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN UPPER JETS ARE NOW FORECAST TO

PHASE DURING SUNDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO TAP A

MORE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES PAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE

PHASING SUGGESTS DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST RESULTING

IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS LEAVES ROOM FOR THE SURFACE

COASTAL LOW TO EDGE CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS IS A STORMIER SCENARIO FOR US THAN WAS DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO.

WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT THIS SUDDEN CHANGE DOESN/T GO BACK THE

OTHER WAY JUST AS FAST.

 

 

Well unless the NWS was asleep, this storm has been on the screen for over 24 hrs. Pytpe is obviously more of a question.

[Ginx snewx]

There is a frigid high to the north near Maine and Quebec...if the secondary can become dominant pretty early, then its going to draw in some of that cold so help out the BL...but if the primary stays strong too long and keeps the sfc flow from tapping that high....then its much tougher.

The answer will become clearer within the hour

[CoastalWx]

GEFS are pretty mild south of the NH border.

[N. OF PIKE]

GEFS are pretty mild south of the NH border.

If transfer to secondary is quick would u think r/s line (n of pike) maybe found along coastal front or is this nonsense

[moneypitmike]

GEFS are pretty mild south of the NH border.

 

FTL.  Also, total disregard to the VT border.  GC gets no respect. 

[CoastalWx]

If transfer to secondary is quick would u think r/s line (n of pike) maybe found along coastal front or is this nonsense

 

Probably would be cstl front if temps aloft are cold enough. This also could be a rain to snow deal if this intensifies quicker. My personal opinion is that we need to cold to accelerate in here quicker, but the caveat of the cold not wanting to make it in here is real. This is why higher elevations and perhaps areas like nrn MA and especially srn and central NH and Maine are in a better spot to be snow because 850 temps are colder there despite being above 0C to start. Room to dynamically flip to snow. 

 

We basically want this further south and intensifying quicker if anyone near 128 has a shot.

[CoastalWx]

FTL.  Also, total disregard to the VT border.  GC gets no respect. 

 

You are still ok. 

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM tracks the system up from NYC through ORH...good snow for powderfreak over to Vim Toot.

[Typhoon Tip]

Blue Bomb for ORH county

 

Ha ha, Steve - wow.  I was just skimming over a few operational run types from 00z and thinking, "Gee, this is almost a blue bomb." 

 

Then I figured I'd see what is the latest and greatest on the blogosphere and the very first post I see is, "Blue Bomb for ORH county."

 

..ah, yeah... anyway, the 00z Euro had 850's at 0C along the CT/RI border with Mass (perhaps the Pike), with a vortex track SE of that nexas, in a juicy, albeit marginal column. Could see it snowing chuncks down to 1/4" vis with thunder from just NW of HFD to my neck of the woods in that sort of evolution.  

 

Southern stream system that truly does capture a wave out of the Gulf means very efficient transport of high PWAT air regardless of sensible impact.  Seeing the Euro trend colder, and seeing the GFS is only +1C at 850 on the NW flank of the closing vortex at that level are interesting signals to say the least.  

 

For most and for now we gotta go cold rain, but now that we are past mid December, and considering the background longer term pattern is a cold anomaly ...it's worth mentioning.  

[Sugarloaf1989]

Maybe its worth waiting until January 1st after all to go skiing in Vermont, if they get snow out of this storm.

[N. OF PIKE]

GGEM tracks the system up from NYC through ORH...good snow for powderfreak over to Vim Toot.

Its whispering "go north pickles...go north" i shall on sat eve or sunday if this s stream fellow trends NW.

[Typhoon Tip]

There is a frigid high to the north near Maine and Quebec...if the secondary can become dominant pretty early, then its going to draw in some of that cold so help out the BL...but if the primary stays strong too long and keeps the sfc flow from tapping that high....then its much tougher.

 

It's another reason why I don't like this set up as a pure rainer.   

 

First of all, even the GFS would end as snow for about ORH and points N or eastern/central Mass.  But, being that we are in a baser pattern of cold anomalies, it would really be a feat of fairly significant convenience to warm solution for the cold environs to just happen to key-slot timing that to take place. 

 

Then again ... I guess we "needle thread" for snow sometimes, so maybe it goes the other way, too. 

[N. OF PIKE]

Maybe its worth waiting until January 1st after all to go skiing in Vermont, if they get snow out of this storm.

Well jan 2 the -30c 850 line runs over central vt. So go after the polar vortex kisses n maine.

Unless u dont mind first tracks @ -15 to -30 below. What the hell are the prog'd for say MPV on jan 2'nd 12z . Gotta be -25 or so. Sorry for OT

[CoastalWx]

The problem with SNE and the high to the north is that there is an arctic front with a parent low in the way. So either need to weaken that or have it pushed further SE, stronger secondary low, and also a further SE track of the secondary. Otherwise it's wasted QPF.

[Typhoon Tip]

That's the other thing I heard....I don't know why the icing threat is getting played. Seems extremely marginal for that.

Anyways the subtle SE shift of the arctic front over NY is what you want to continue to see. As it is now, the real Cold is behind the front. But, if it intensifies quick enough, some of that could get pulled into the circulation. These storms are a pain because I feel like when you have these situations, the cold never really gets in here once the front is stuck in NNE. It's not impossible though so will need to watch areas like nrn MA.

 

I almost think we won't need it to get to at least a blue snow...  Rotted air by then, sure, but with marginality, strong UVM and frontogenic forcing associated with closing surfaces aloft can get the job done from what I am looking at.   

 

But yeah, should arctic air get involved than this thing winds up like a top and all the models are probably underdone by a bit...