December 29th System

[moneypitmike]

Precip is done and you're mixing out as the CAA ramps up behind the system.

 

Thanks--helpful.

[DomNH]

Unfortunately this is going to be racing out of here by midnight. A lot of these soundings are so damn close though for S NH. The ASH WBZ is a little below H9 at 00Z, but you only warm to +1C and you have NNE-NE flow in that near SFC layer. If you tuck in a little more cold or get some dynamic/latent cooling (melting) assist you could be talking a 33F pasting.

Yeah it's damn close and should be interesting to watch. I bet we go isothermal toward the end but not enough for more than just some sloppy flakes. This airmass is a killer.

[dendrite]

Taking the over on this one for all spots, think you overestimate the torch.  P+C has 3-7 for CON, 6" seems good to me even with taint.

The GFS is definitely more precarious, but if we're worried about 900-925mb then that isn't going to help 1kft anyways. I'm thinking maybe a little -RASN to start and then we get a period of 32-33F +SN during the meat of the system. Maybe BostonWx will be right...wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. Your area near CON is more iffy. We're right on the line so there isn't much left to do except let it play out.

[N. OF PIKE]

I think i would be watching the radar at this point

Yup and 925 temps as will alluded

Big rates or rain or get to 4k

King pine in Madison,nh looks good

[dendrite]

Yup and 925 temps as will alluded

Well 925 is warm, but they will wetbulb down.

[dryslot]

Well 925 is warm, but they will wetbulb down.

 

Toasty

 

[wxeyeNH]

I'm at 31.2F/28  temp has been steady all morning even though a bit of dim sun.  Now clouds are a bit thicker and can't see sun at all.  If I rise to 33 or 34F I think I'll go right back to freezing with precip.  Don't want to waste any on the front end.  Glad to see Grey Maine finally changed us to WSW after my rant yesterday. Looks like a fun evening and then mid winter cold.

[Logan11]

New Albany map has the 4-6 and 6-8 stuff flirting with Mike....      It has 4-6 out here.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/WSW.htm

 

[bobbutts]

WSW's hoisted

[Damage In Tolland]

Rain has begun. 40.0 / 33

[MainePhotog]

Another tweak..........

 

Shoved everything toward the coast just a tad. Just inland from the coast up to just beyond you, Jeff, looks like the place to be. Not quite as worried about r/s line as I was yesterday. I'm a good 18 miles from the ocean.

29.8°F

[BostonWX]

Really disagree with gyx on this one. Hope they're right though

[N. OF PIKE]

41/29 florida,ma 2k ...is there a snowier spot in mass?

[dendrite]

WSW's hoisted

I figured that was coming when they extended the 6-8" down to CON.

[ineedsnow]

wow box just put out advisorys for alot of people

[ineedsnow]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1113 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

...A FEW HOURS OF HEAVY WET SNOW LIKELY AFTER DARK...

.RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM. FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE ONSET IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN BETWEEN 6 PM AND 8 PM RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THIS INCLUDES THE TOWNS OF CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...FITCHBURG...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...JAFFREY...KEENE...
MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH AND WEARE. SNOW MAY BE
OCCASIONAL HEAVY THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF BETWEEN 9 PM
AND 11 PM. HEAVY WET SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. THERE IS A LOW RISK
THAT THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY DOWN SMALL BRANCHES AND TREE LIMBS.

MAZ002>004-008>010-026-NHZ011-012-015-300015-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0021.131229T1613Z-131230T0500Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...
NORTHAMPTON...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...
PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
1113 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY WET SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...ALONG WITH
AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* TIMING...RAIN CHANGES TO HEAVY WET SNOW BETWEEN 6 PM AND 8 PM.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY DOWN SOME
BRANCHES AND SMALL TREE LIMBS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

[N. OF PIKE]

Really disagree with gyx on this one. Hope they're right though

What would u put out for a forecast, u dont want ppl caught off guard in 6 inches of Nash's taters on road. Perhaps throw in , if temps are 1 degree warmer than modeled it could be more rain (i think that is something they should add in forecasts) when there is no margin for error.

[dryslot]

Really disagree with gyx on this one. Hope they're right though

 

In what sense? There max qpf zones?

[dryslot]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

1113 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

...A FEW HOURS OF HEAVY WET SNOW LIKELY AFTER DARK...

.RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM. FREEZING

RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE ONSET IN THE VALLEY

LOCATIONS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS

AFTERNOON. THEN BETWEEN 6 PM AND 8 PM RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO

HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW

HAMPSHIRE. THIS INCLUDES THE TOWNS OF CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...

ORANGE...FITCHBURG...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...JAFFREY...KEENE...

MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH AND WEARE. SNOW MAY BE

OCCASIONAL HEAVY THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF BETWEEN 9 PM

AND 11 PM. HEAVY WET SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH

HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. THERE IS A LOW RISK

THAT THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY DOWN SMALL BRANCHES AND TREE LIMBS.

MAZ002>004-008>010-026-NHZ011-012-015-300015-

/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0021.131229T1613Z-131230T0500Z/

WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-

WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-

NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-

WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...

BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...

NORTHAMPTON...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...

PETERBOROUGH...WEARE

1113 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY WET SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL

MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...ALONG WITH

AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* TIMING...RAIN CHANGES TO HEAVY WET SNOW BETWEEN 6 PM AND 8 PM.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE

HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY DOWN SOME

BRANCHES AND SMALL TREE LIMBS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Mike just made another pot of coffee

[dryslot]

Shoved everything toward the coast just a tad. Just inland from the coast up to just beyond you, Jeff, looks like the place to be. Not quite as worried about r/s line as I was yesterday. I'm a good 18 miles from the ocean.

29.8°F

 

This one will pretty much start ripping right out of the gate once we wet bulb

[Damage In Tolland]

Box based that entirely off the NAM if you read the disco. Never a good idea

[weatherMA]

BOS basically thinks 2-3" down to ORH now. Pretty big change.

[N. OF PIKE]

Did John write that disco, they put Ayer in it specifically!

[N. OF PIKE]

Box based that entirely off the NAM if you read the disco. Never a good idea

Lol i think the brains at box are a little more complex than that. There is something they are seeing. If 700 and 850's close off when nam says or box thinks from current evolution they will , it could be bombs away for route 2 toward 495 this eve.

[MarkO]

BOS basically thinks 2-3" down to ORH now. Pretty big change.

ASOUT

I think even Lowell ends up with a sloppy inch or two.

[wx2fish]

I figured that was coming when they extended the 6-8" down to CON.

 

Merrimack county is tough county. Could be a big difference from N to S. Have to warn the whole thing though because Im not sure they can split it.

[dendrite]

GFS/EC are about 0.75" liquid...the mesos are closer to 1.00". If you think the NAM is overjuiced then you need to slice some of that off and now you have to maxmize that GFS/EC QPF to pull off 6-8". I think I'm leaning 5-8" here and 4-6" for CON. We could bust on either side of those ranges though. Maybe the mesos have the right idea due to the banding signal.

If we are cold enough at the sfc the snow growth may actually rock around 00Z. The NAM has some monster omega in that banding from H5-H7 where temps are getting around -15C. If we're 32-34F at the sfc then it doesn't matter though...but think Halloween where we were 31-32F and racking up high ratio snows due to the insane frontogenetic banding. We just need the low levels cold enough.

[N. OF PIKE]

ASOUT

I think even Lowell ends up with a sloppy inch or two.

Its late dec, w a favorable track and a deepening low over outer cape, and high not in bad position. The airmass is stale but have seen worse....dynamic cooling ughh what a difficult forecast

Will rates flip peeps to slop/glop or rapidly accumulating sierra cement...is that where elevations will help...man so tuff.

[CoastalWx]

GFS/EC are about 0.75" liquid...the mesos are closer to 1.00". If you think the NAM is overjuiced then you need to slice some of that off and now you have to maxmize that GFS/EC QPF to pull off 6-8". I think I'm leaning 5-8" here and 4-6" for CON. We could bust on either side of those ranges though. Maybe the mesos have the right idea due to the banding signal.

If we are cold enough at the sfc the snow growth may actually rock around 00Z. The NAM has some monster omega in that banding from H5-H7 where temps are getting around -15C. If we're 32-34F at the sfc then it doesn't matter though...but think Halloween where we were 31-32F and racking up high ratio snows due to the insane frontogenetic banding. We just need the low levels cold enough.

 

That's why I think you'll do fine as modeled. Should be intense lift  at that level. Good flake production also helps with cooling.  That will probably help nrn ORH and Berks too,

[dendrite]

Merrimack county is tough county. Could be a big difference from N to S. Have to warn the whole thing though because Im not sure they can split it.

Yeah...I don't think they can split us. Here to Hooksett can be worlds apart. I can walk 5 minutes to reach the Belknap line so I don't worry too much about if I'm in a warning or not.