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December 29th System


moneypitmike

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Even here we're just about riding the isothermal 0C line from 850mb down after 3z on the NAM. Close call.

Unfortunately this is going to be racing out of here by midnight. A lot of these soundings are so damn close though for S NH. The ASH WBZ is a little below H9 at 00Z, but you only warm to +1C and you have NNE-NE flow in that near SFC layer. If you tuck in a little more cold or get some dynamic/latent cooling (melting) assist you could be talking a 33F pasting.
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925mb temps are a furnace currently still all the way into NNE...so its probably going to start as rain initially as it takes time to wetbulb.

Yeah we are now sitting at:

30F 3600ft, 31F 2600ft, and 34F at 1500ft.

Wet bulb is exactly 32F at 1500ft.

Town will probably start as rain even up here as wet bulbs are now above freezing below this level.

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Probably a situation where the valley floor ends up with 3-4" of slop and elevated areas see 8+. This happened last Memorial day weekend where 1800' had 4-5" and the folks in the valley didn't even know it snowed.

 

Yep, that's how I see it as of now. Elevated areas  should hit 6-9 if not a little bit more. Conway area looks primed.

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I would go 3-6 for elevations below 8-900 feet in the Lakes region. Perhaps 1-2 in CON. 3-6 in the Monadnocks. I would doubt more than a T-2 for N ORH county

Taking the over on this one for all spots, think you overestimate the torch.  P+C has 3-7 for CON, 6" seems good to me even with taint.  

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