HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 34.4F and rising off a low of 24 Nice cleansing rain incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Dendrite to Conway and points east will probably be the winners. That seems to have been locked up days ago I've been holding at 2-4" (3" specifically) for here for the past two days and see no reason to change that. I like 5-10" in the jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 34.4F and rising off a low of 24 Nice cleansing rain incoming What? You've got at least 3-5 inches coming tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Even here we're just about riding the isothermal 0C line from 850mb down after 3z on the NAM. Close call.Unfortunately this is going to be racing out of here by midnight. A lot of these soundings are so damn close though for S NH. The ASH WBZ is a little below H9 at 00Z, but you only warm to +1C and you have NNE-NE flow in that near SFC layer. If you tuck in a little more cold or get some dynamic/latent cooling (melting) assist you could be talking a 33F pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 Where this flips, I can imagine some big 'ol honkin' flakes coming down. Would look great in the porch light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 925mb temps are a furnace currently still all the way into NNE...so its probably going to start as rain initially as it takes time to wetbulb.Yeah we are now sitting at:30F 3600ft, 31F 2600ft, and 34F at 1500ft. Wet bulb is exactly 32F at 1500ft. Town will probably start as rain even up here as wet bulbs are now above freezing below this level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I would go 3-6 for elevations below 8-900 feet in the Lakes region. Perhaps 1-2 in CON. 3-6 in the Monadnocks. I would doubt more than a T-2 for N ORH county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 925mb temps are a furnace currently still all the way into NNE...so its probably going to start as rain initially as it takes time to wetbulb. I just noticed this as well. 35.9@1800' (Weetamoo) 28.3@700' (Campton) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 925mb temps are a furnace currently still all the way into NNE...so its probably going to start as rain initially as it takes time to wetbulb. I am at a thousand feet or so and it's a torch still here. Has been for 24 hours. Snub day River has been above freezing for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I just noticed this as well. 28.3@700' (Campton) And they remain AOA freezing at LCI for the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 And they remain AOA freezing at LCI for the entire event Probably a situation where the valley floor ends up with 3-4" of slop and elevated areas see 8+. This happened last Memorial day weekend where 1800' had 4-5" and the folks in the valley didn't even know it snowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Probably a situation where the valley floor ends up with 3-4" of slop and elevated areas see 8+. This happened last Memorial day weekend where 1800' had 4-5" and the folks in the valley didn't even know it snowed. Yep, that's how I see it as of now. Elevated areas should hit 6-9 if not a little bit more. Conway area looks primed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 MWN auto road at 4kft is 37/23 (Tw ~32) right now. NAM soundings are fine up here throughout...GFS keeps a strange dry layer around H9 through the event with WBZs below that of 0-1C. We'll see, but I think we'll be OK given p-rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 lol gfs and nam are worlds apart at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I just noticed this as well. 28.3@700' (Campton) Yeah this is why in these setups, the sfc temp before the event doesn't mean much at all...that inversion gets mixed out pretty quick. I always try and follow those BL temps around 925mb to track the progress of the top-down cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 I don't think this looks to shabby. Oddly, at 06z tonight, it has a warmer air come in at the surface. Not sure what that's about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Both models show the same thing. Dynamics are needed. Probably one of those deals where 850-925 has to cool via latent heat of melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 ugly snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 gfs has almost no snow in vermont where warnings are up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I think i would be watching the radar at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 Looks like the GFS pushes the precip in a little earlier than the NAM....looks pretty consistent tempwise at quick glance with the prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 I think i would be watching the radar at this point Which would suggest GFS timing if that's hitting the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 ugly snow growth9-10:1...big deal. More lasting power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It's very overcast and 34 here now. If it wasn't for the torched mid levels, I'd be expecting this to start as wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I don't think this looks to shabby. Oddly, at 06z tonight, it has a warmer air come in at the surface. Not sure what that's about.Precip is done and you're mixing out as the CAA ramps up behind the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I would go 3-6 for elevations below 8-900 feet in the Lakes region. Perhaps 1-2 in CON. 3-6 in the Monadnocks. I would doubt more than a T-2 for N ORH county Taking the over on this one for all spots, think you overestimate the torch. P+C has 3-7 for CON, 6" seems good to me even with taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The NAM p type maps have snow here at 4 PM. You can see it is depicting a dynamically driven situation with rain yet on the lighter northern edges north of here in northeast NY and VT....like a spring situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Another tweak.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Would have been a nice time to head to the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I'm heading to the snowmobile trailer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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