dendrite Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 And colder up here. The NAM drops about 10" here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 On the NAM, It's very close around where Mike lives...but one of those deals where a forecast of an inch could quickly turn into 6" if you can flip to snow during that intense six hour thump. Looks good here IMO...even ALY thinks I'm only getting 2". I'd have you in for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Why not, u think 850's are torched? Drunk? Im talkin summit / 2k .... BL much cooler there then low lands ...tons of lift...something frz will be falling. Precip looks out of there by midnite Mid levels are just not cold enough. I will watch the cams though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 I'm trying to track the 700 center--I need to find a map that shows it more clearly. It looks like it runs a trajectory from NYC over Mt. Tolland to the Gulf of ME. Am I reading that right? If so, it's too close for comfort, but perhaps a smidge better than what it had been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Its coming in like a wall though...if ever we could overcome the torched mid levels quickly this is it.... At least out here. Mid levels are just not cold enough. I will watch the cams though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I'm trying to track the 700 center--I need to find a map that shows it more clearly. It looks like it runs a trajectory from NYC over Mt. Tolland to the Gulf of ME. Am I reading that right? If so, it's too close for comfort, but perhaps a smidge better than what it had been. Looks like BAF to PSM to me...bottom left corner... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_0z/wrfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 Looks like BAF to PSM to me...bottom left corner... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_0z/wrfloop.html Man that blows....er....I mean, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 18z gfs looks ok for the lakes on the soundings verbatim. Keeps LCI near freezing. I think someplace near Washington, NH up towards New london down toward Warner will do pretty well. That's me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Man the NAM is juiced. Over an inch of liquid for the Lakes Region NH. I still think some elevated areas could see over 10". edit just saw your 10" post, I agree, will come down hard and at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Looks like BAF to PSM to me...bottom left corner... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_0z/wrfloop.html Dave u weenie...look at that model ...850 to ur se at 7pm ....wawa would flip and dump in that scenario , esp up top. At least that is my take verbatimI will say 850 temps in the afternoon are not awe inspiring, and when u need to count on dynamic cookin and that last degree at 850, things Are not a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Never got above 30 here today....though there we still sit. Based on the runs and climo, I'm feeling a garden variety central VT half-foot around here. Kind of a local specialty, regardless of the system type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 0Z NAM fous 1.18" liquid for Concord NH all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 We hit 40 here west of ALB, but down to a frosty 21 now. Never got above 30 here today....though there we still sit. Based on the runs and climo, I'm feeling a garden variety central VT half-foot around here. Kind of a local specialty, regardless of the system type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I think there will be some weenie scares at noon time temps tommorrow in the valleys of cne/nne. Lookin at my phone which has 34 in n conway , 37 concord Id say 37-38 n conway 39 -40 concord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I think there will be some weenie scares at noon time temps tommorrow in the valleys of cne/nne. Lookin at my phone which has 34 in n conway , 37 concord Id say 37-38 n conway 39 -40 concord. The models have CON touching 40F so it shouldn't be a scare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Rain for my area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Rain for my area?Would be amazing to see CON get 1.1" all snow and Amherst all rain. Or were you wondering if you start as rain?Usually when dendrite feels well about an event I end up doing pretty well too. Within about two inches or so. But this area always seems to be right on that edge of good accums vs. just a couple inches of slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 If ever there was a case for isothermal flip this is it. Cooling from the top down, evaporative cooling, Hi res really shows it well. Going to be some surprises tomorrow in unexpected places. Patriots versus Ravens type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 2/3 rule for NAM QPF output in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The models have CON touching 40F so it shouldn't be a scare.Ok, just on phone comparing my phone app to what seem'd to be an est guess of mine.Ot but i was surprised to see icy spots at 8pm this eve, didnt think it would drop that quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Would be amazing to see CON get 1.1" all snow and Amherst all rain. Or were you wondering if you start as rain? Usually when dendrite feels well about an event I end up doing pretty well too. Within about two inches or so. But this area always seems to be right on that edge of good accums vs. just a couple inches of slop I am sure I start as rain. Just wondering if I get any accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Crazy temp gradient on rte 26, 37 at sr but fog and 23 in valleys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 If ever there was a case for isothermal flip this is it. Cooling from the top down, evaporative cooling, Hi res really shows it well. Going to be some surprises tomorrow in unexpected places. Patriots versus Ravens type Do you mean something like these 3 hour increments from the NAM for here at 18z-21z-24z-27z-30z (loaded in reverse order)? I figure the models are different, but whatever. 31.9/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Yes Mike, and hi res shows it well. Should be interesting at the Pit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Updated............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 fugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 343 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013 MAZ001-NYZ047-051-058-VTZ013>015-292130- /O.NEW.KALY.WW.Y.0019.131229T1800Z-131230T0600Z/ NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN ALBANY-WESTERN GREENE- BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...COBLESKILL... MIDDLEBURGH...ALTAMONT...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM... BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO... WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS 343 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CATSKILLS OF SCHOHARIE AND GREENE COUNTIES...HELDERBERGS...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE AT ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FEET. * MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR. * TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. * IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL CREATE SLIPPERY ROADS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ TAW/SND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY343 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013MAZ001-NYZ047-051-058-VTZ013>015-292130-/O.NEW.KALY.WW.Y.0019.131229T1800Z-131230T0600Z/NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN ALBANY-WESTERN GREENE-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...ALTAMONT...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS343 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO1 AM EST MONDAY... Congrats, Rick. Interesting to note that even at low elevations, Albany's p/c is tossing Williamstown 3-5" and North Adams 3-7". BOX is not budging. A few snippets from their AFD regarding their thought process are below. I'm surprised they're not taking a more aggressive approach regarding headlines given the seemingly razor's edge for something more significant. Whatever, no one lives out here any way. SYNOPSIS... STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS CAPE COD THIS EVENING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BRINGING WITH IT HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS TO THE SOUTH COAST. THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OVERNIGHT... THICKNESSES ARE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW DURING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE LOW /ROUGHLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT/ WHEN THE AGEOSTROPHIC/ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF THE WIND ALLOWS FOR COLD-AIR FUNNELING S THROUGH WESTERN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND THEREBY LOWERING THICKNESSES. CONSIDERING 2M TEMPS NEAR- FREEZING WITH MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILE TO H8...AM MORE INCLINED TO BELIEVE PRECIPITATION TYPES TO BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. LESSER CONFIDENCE ON SEEING FREEZING RAIN/ SLEET. EXPECT SNOW TO BE SLUSHY...ACCUMULATING WHEN PRECIPITATING AT LEAST MODERATELY. CONSIDERING COMPACTION AND LIQUID-TO-WATER RATIOS AROUND 1:9...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION /ROUGHLY AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES AT MOST...SUB-ADVISORY/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 From the soundings I can gather for out here, it looks like NAM: has me on the verge of changing around 21z, perhaps with a mix then or perhaps all snow. GFS: 6hour increments, so not as clear. But by 00z, it may have be in blue snow, but I'm going to err warm and say still rain RAP: Perhaps mixing at 21z. I've got the line from Atlantic City playing loudly in my head..... If I wind up with a slushy inch, I think it'll be a crunchy, icy inch on the driveway when I get back Tuesday afternoon. 31.6/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 wwlp going a coating to an inch for you and all of Berkshire county I think thats to low out that way http://www.wwlp.com/weather/winter-weather Interesting to note that even at low elevations, Albany's p/c is tossing Williamstown 3-5" and North Adams 3-7". I've got the line from Atlantic City playing loudly in my head...... 32.0/27. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.