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December 29th System


moneypitmike

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I'm trying to track the 700 center--I need to find a map that shows it more clearly.  It looks like it runs a trajectory from NYC over Mt. Tolland to the Gulf of ME.  Am I reading that right?  If so, it's too close for comfort, but perhaps a smidge better than what it had been.

Looks like BAF to PSM to me...bottom left corner...

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_0z/wrfloop.html

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Looks like BAF to PSM to me...bottom left corner...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_0z/wrfloop.html

Dave u weenie...look at that model ...850 to ur se at 7pm ....wawa would flip and dump in that scenario , esp up top. At least that is my take verbatim

I will say 850 temps in the afternoon are not awe inspiring, and when u need to count on dynamic cookin and that last degree at 850, things Are not a lock

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Rain for my area?

Would be amazing to see CON get 1.1" all snow and Amherst all rain. Or were you wondering if you start as rain?

Usually when dendrite feels well about an event I end up doing pretty well too. Within about two inches or so. But this area always seems to be right on that edge of good accums vs. just a couple inches of slop

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Would be amazing to see CON get 1.1" all snow and Amherst all rain. Or were you wondering if you start as rain?

Usually when dendrite feels well about an event I end up doing pretty well too. Within about two inches or so. But this area always seems to be right on that edge of good accums vs. just a couple inches of slop

I am sure I start as rain. Just wondering if I get any accumulating snow.

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If ever there was a case for isothermal flip this is it. Cooling from the top down, evaporative cooling, Hi res really shows it well. Going to be some surprises tomorrow in unexpected places. Patriots versus Ravens type

 

Do you mean something like these 3 hour increments from the NAM for here at 18z-21z-24z-27z-30z (loaded in reverse order)?  I figure the models are different, but whatever.

 

31.9/27

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY

343 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

MAZ001-NYZ047-051-058-VTZ013>015-292130-

/O.NEW.KALY.WW.Y.0019.131229T1800Z-131230T0600Z/

NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN ALBANY-WESTERN GREENE-

BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...COBLESKILL...

MIDDLEBURGH...ALTAMONT...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...

BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...

WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS

343 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO

1 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS

AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CATSKILLS OF SCHOHARIE AND

GREENE COUNTIES...HELDERBERGS...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTHERN

BERKSHIRE COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE AT

ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FEET.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR.

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL CREATE SLIPPERY ROADS AND

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW

WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW

COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

&&

$$

TAW/SND

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY343 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013MAZ001-NYZ047-051-058-VTZ013>015-292130-/O.NEW.KALY.WW.Y.0019.131229T1800Z-131230T0600Z/NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN ALBANY-WESTERN GREENE-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...ALTAMONT...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS343 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO1 AM EST MONDAY... 

 

Congrats, Rick. Interesting to note that even at low elevations, Albany's p/c is tossing Williamstown 3-5" and North Adams 3-7". 

 

BOX is not budging.  A few snippets from their AFD regarding their thought process are below.  I'm surprised they're not taking a more aggressive approach regarding headlines given the seemingly razor's edge for something more significant.  Whatever, no one lives out here any way.  :)

 

SYNOPSIS...

STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS CAPE COD THIS EVENING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BRINGING WITH IT HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS TO THE SOUTH COAST. THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OVERNIGHT...

 

THICKNESSES ARE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW DURING THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE LOW /ROUGHLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT/ WHEN THE AGEOSTROPHIC/ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF THE WIND ALLOWS FOR COLD-AIR FUNNELING S THROUGH WESTERN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND THEREBY LOWERING THICKNESSES. CONSIDERING 2M TEMPS NEAR- FREEZING WITH MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A NEARLY-ISOTHERMAL PROFILE TO H8...AM MORE INCLINED TO BELIEVE PRECIPITATION TYPES TO BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. LESSER CONFIDENCE ON SEEING FREEZING RAIN/ SLEET. EXPECT SNOW TO BE SLUSHY...ACCUMULATING WHEN PRECIPITATING AT LEAST MODERATELY. CONSIDERING COMPACTION AND LIQUID-TO-WATER RATIOS AROUND 1:9...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION /ROUGHLY AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES AT MOST...SUB-ADVISORY/.

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From the soundings I can gather for out here, it looks like

 

NAM: has me on the verge of changing around 21z, perhaps with a mix then or perhaps all snow.

 

GFS:  6hour increments, so not as clear.  But by 00z, it may have be in blue snow, but I'm going to err warm and say still rain

 

RAP:  Perhaps mixing at 21z.

 

 

I've got the line from Atlantic City playing loudly in my head.....

 

 

If I wind up with a slushy inch, I think it'll be a crunchy, icy inch on the driveway when I get back Tuesday afternoon.


31.6/26

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wwlp going a coating to an inch for you and all of Berkshire county I think thats to low out that way

 

http://www.wwlp.com/weather/winter-weather

Interesting to note that even at low elevations, Albany's p/c is tossing Williamstown 3-5" and North Adams 3-7".

 

I've got the line from Atlantic City playing loudly in my head......

 

32.0/27.  Meh.

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