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December 29th System

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

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BostonWX

BostonWX

Posted
Posted

I would go a general 2-5 over the Lakes region as of now. If things break right then close to 6, but thats a stretch. But I'm expecting a lot of 3-4 inch totals in the Lakes region. I expect very little if anything for CON or MHT. Monads I would go 2-5 as well.  Biggest bust potential imo is the Monadnocks/Lakes.  T-2 elevated N ORH county at best

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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I'm at mount snow kinda wish I went further north but this was planned months ago. I was amazed on the way up there was a good amount of remaining snow further south from here. I have a feeling we could see a situation where it starts as rain at the base and snow at the summit. The base changes to snow in the evening with 6-8" at the summit and 3-4" at the base. Such a marginal event any extra elevation should help

 

Did you take 112 up?  You weren't too far from the Pit as you headed through Shelburne.  Good luck getting some snow!

 

I dunno, NWS Albany pretty bearish for S VT. Not even advisories S of Rutland.

 

Hey, Chris--I was down in your neck of the woods today and posted a couple shots in the obs thread.  Deep winter down along the Green!

 

I'll be out tomorrow-Tuesday.  If you head up the hill at any point after the storm, can you post (or text) if we got any snow up here.  All the NWS  'meh' is lowering my expectations.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
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Did you take 112 up? You weren't too far from the Pit as you headed through Shelburne. Good luck getting some snow!

Hey, Chris--I was down in your neck of the woods today and posted a couple shots in the obs thread. Deep winter down along the Green!

I'll be out tomorrow-Tuesday. If you head up the hill at any point after the storm, can you post (or text) if we got any snow up here. All the NWS 'meh' is lowering my expectations.

If i was Chris id take the weenie drive west on route 2 , out to 2200'.
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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Why do the WPC maps issued last nite have frz rain on them for tomm eve for nh and maine up into central areas? Point and clicks also have sleet well into nh as well, sleet ?

 

Its just such a marginal situation... read the great AFD from BTV.  These are the types of forecast discussions we love, long and in-depth:

 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 315 PM EST SATURDAY...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR EASTERN

ADDISON...EASTERN RUTLAND...EASTERN CHITTENDEN...LAMOILLE...

WINDSOR...ORANGE...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA...AND ESSEX COUNTY VT

FROM 18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 6 OR MORE

INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW.

EASTERN DACKS...NORTHERN VT....AND SLV/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY A WET HEAVY

SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED.

EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP BTWN 18Z-21Z SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE

MID/UPPER 30S...BUT AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES AFT 21Z...RAIN WL

MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE

800 FEET...ACRS SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN VT...LESS AS YOU GO

WEST INTO THE DACKS/SLV.

THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD EXTRA WEIGHT TO TREES AND

POWER LINES WITH SOME ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.

EXTREMELY CHALLENGING FCST WITH REGARDS TO RAIN/SNOW MIX AND

POTENTIAL HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACRS OUR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA

FROM 18Z SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER TRRN WL SEE

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND THE BETTER CHC FOR A MODERATE HEAVY WET

SNOW ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING.

UPCOMING EVENT WL BE 6 TO 10 HOURS IN DURATION...WITH PERIOD OF

MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EXPECTED BTWN 5PM SUNDAY AND 1 AM MONDAY.

THERMAL PROFILES ARE EXTREMELY TRICKY FOR UPCOMING EVENT...ALONG

WITH ASSOCIATED PTYPE. SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP DRY LAYER BTWN 900 AND

600MB ON SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH AS PRECIP ARRIVES SHOULD COOL

SIGNIFICANTLY TO NEARLY 0C BY 00Z MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP

LAYER BTWN SFC TO 700 MB NEAR 0C THRU THE EVENT...A DEGREE

WARMER/COOLER WL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON PTYPE. ABOVE 800 FEET

THINKING PRECIP MAY START AS A LITTLE RAIN...BUT QUICKLY CHANGE TO

ALL SNOW THRU THE ENTIRE EVENT. MEANWHILE...BL TEMPS ACRS THE

LOWER ELEVATIONS BLW 800 FT STAYS BTWN 0C AND 1C...DURING THE

EVENT...LEADING TO PTYPE ISSUES. VALLEYS BLW 800 FT THINKING A

COLD RAIN TO START...BUT CHANGING TO ALL SNOW DURING THE HEIGHT OF

THE STORM SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE ENDING AS A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN

EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WL COMING CRASHING DOWN BY 09Z SLV AND

BTWN 12Z-15Z MONDAY...WITH A FLASH FREEZE LIKELY AND POTENTIAL

HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW RATIOS WL VARY GREATLY

DEPENDING UPON ELEVATION BUT NEAR 6 OR 8 TO 1 IN THE CPV TO 12 OR

14 TO 1 ABOVE 1500 FEET...GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES FOR THE UPCOMING

EVENT. MEANWHILE...ACRS EXTREME NORTHERN CPV AND THE NORTHERN

SLV...LOCAL 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND

LLVL COLD AIR DRAINING INTO THIS REGION...CAUSING THE POTENTIAL

FOR A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW IN

GRIDS AND AN ICE ACCUMULATION WL BE MINIMAL WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN

THE U20S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION ACRS

CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS THIS AFTN...WITH DEEP SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE

ADVECTING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACRS THE MS VALLEY/GULF COAST. THIS

HAS RESULTED IN PWS JUMPING BTWN 0.81 AND 1.40" ACRS THE NORTHERN

GULF...WHICH IS 100 TO 175% OF NORMAL. THIS STRONG AND DEEP MOISTURE

ADVECTION WL CONT AS SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT AND

UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY...WITH PW VALUES BTWN 0.50 AND

0.80" OR 200% OF NORMAL ACRS OUR REGION.

OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN

ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH POTENT 5H ENERGY EJECTING FROM EASTERN

TEXAS TONIGHT AND RACING INTO THE SE CONUS...BEFORE QUICKLY LIFTING

INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 18Z SUNDAY AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND

COAST BY 06Z MONDAY. PRIMARY SFC LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR

GA/SC BORDER AT 12Z SUNDAY AND RACE TO NYC BY 00Z MONDAY...BEFORE

TRACKING INTO EASTERN CANADA BY 12Z MONDAY...WHILE SECONDARY SFC LOW

PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS TRACK PLACES

A TIGHT SE TO NW QPF GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...WITH HEAVIEST VALUES

ACRS OUR SE ZNS AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS OVER THE SLV. A SLIGHT SHIFT

EAST OR WEST...WOULD GREATLY SHIFT THE ANTICIPATED QPF ACRS OUR CWA

FOR THIS EVENT. WL USE A MODEL BLEND BTWN THE DRIER ECMWF/GFS

SOLUTIONS AND THE WETTER NAM/GEM MODELS WITH SOME LOCAL HIGH

RESOLUTION DATA TO HIGHLIGHT MTNS. SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY WEAK

1000 TO 700MB WIND FIELD ACRS OUR CWA...SO EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM

SE DOWNSLOPE FLW AND THE RESULTING SHADOWING EFFECTS OF THE QPF.

LATEST DATA SHOWS WIND SPEEDS BTWN 10 AND 20 KNOTS AT 85H DURING THE

HEAVIEST QPF...WHICH WL HAVE LIMITED IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH TRRN.

NAM/GFS SHOW BAND OF STRONG 7H FGEN FORCING...ALONG WITH A DEEP

VERTICAL PROFILE OF 850 TO 500MB UVVS LIFTING ACRS EASTERN NY INTO

SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST OF

OUR CWA BY 06Z MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP. GIVEN THE

DYNAMICS AVAILABLE AND POSITION OF RRQ OF 150 KNT JET ACRS SOUTHERN

CANADA...STRONG ULVL DIVERGENCE WL BE PRESENT ACRS OUR CWA...BTWN

00Z MONDAY AND 06Z MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS ALOFT AND LLVL

FORCING...WL CREATE A MESO TYPE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP

ACRS OUR CWA ON SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT BAND TO DEVELOP ACRS SOUTHERN

CWA BTWN 21-00Z SUNDAY...AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VT BTWN

00Z-03Z...BEFORE LIFTING NE OF FA BY 06Z MONDAY. GREATEST IMPACTS

FROM BAND WL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV...WITH MUCH LESS QPF

EXPECTING ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN DACKS. BASED ON POSITION OF

DYNAMICS/MOISTURE QPF VALUES WL RANGE BTWN 0.05 TO 0.15 SLV/WESTERN

DACKS TO 0.20 TO 0.40 EASTERN DACKS/CPV/NORTHERN VT TO 0.50 TO 0.90

CENTRAL/EASTERN/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F ON

SUNDAY...WL COME CRASHING DOWN ON MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS RANGING

FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO NEAR 30F VSF...CREATING

A FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
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Nice powderfreak ...ya lower elevations should have Ptype issues till precip thumps and even then elevations should do better but its so damn dicey.

I bet we see 40 in a lot of areas into cne tommorrow prior to precip , just imo but models were too cold w 2m temps today and airmass is not cooler at 0z monday.

I see alot of wet glop slop potential tmrw pm due to BL issues. As btv says elevation maybe king, maybe dentrite cleans up but its gonna come down to a degree or two makin all the difference imo even w lift for a bit. I'd me much more confident AOA 1k for accums in CNE.

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted

Thanks pwfreak looking forward to an interesting day At snow tomorrow! I fully expect a wild ride in the afternoon with snow high and rain low transitioning to all snow be evening throughout. Climatologicaly elevation has always helped in marginal events like this while 3500 is far from super high ithe extra couple degrees colder should do the trick!

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dendrite

dendrite

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Posted

Nice powderfreak ...ya lower elevations should have Ptype issues till precip thumps and even then elevations should do better but its so damn dicey.

I bet we see 40 in a lot of areas into cne tommorrow prior to precip , just imo but models were too cold w 2m temps today and airmass is not cooler at 0z monday.

I see alot of wet glop slop potential tmrw pm due to BL issues. As btv says elevation maybe king, maybe dentrite cleans up but its gonna come down to a degree or two makin all the difference imo even w lift for a bit. I'd me much more confident AOA 1k for accums in CNE.

To be fair it wasn't a 2m temp type of day. MOS had about 41F for CON and the max was 43F...so it maybe it was a little warmer, but nothing drastic.

 

It definitely is a putrid airmass for late Dec though.  I have some slight temp concerns for here, but I'll try not to worry like mpm.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
Hey, Chris--I was down in your neck of the woods today and posted a couple shots in the obs thread.  Deep winter down along the Green!

 

I'll be out tomorrow-Tuesday.  If you head up the hill at any point after the storm, can you post (or text) if we got any snow up here.  All the NWS  'meh' is lowering my expectations.

 

Yeah, the little Green River Valley holds the cold as well as anywhere.

 

 

If i was Chris id take the weenie drive west on route 2 , out to 2200'.

 

If Chris were doing that, he'd pass by on his way.  :)

 

I'll take a ride Monday morning with the boy, maybe Savoy but at least out to Charlemont.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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To be fair it wasn't a 2m temp type of day. MOS had about 41F for CON and the max was 43F...so it maybe it was a little warmer, but nothing drastic.

 

It definitely is a putrid airmass for late Dec though.  I have some slight temp concerns for here, but I'll try not to worry like mpm.

 

Just don't go out there without your blaze orange.

 

Yeah, the little Green River Valley holds the cold as well as anywhere.

 

 

 

 

I'll take a ride Monday morning with the boy, maybe Savoy but at least out to Charlemont.

 

You'll do just as well heading to Heath, much shorter than Savoy.

 

32.3/27

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
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2" would really surprise me. Maybe 0.5"

Do urself a favor and ski wa wa tomm nite! take quad to 2k and watch the transition. Lp going over cc and ne winds . The airmass is crappy but not thaaaat bad. Just get those rates going and it will dump under them at top of Wa Wa. DUMP bet ya summit is dumpin at 8 tomm eve.

Not often im same temp as MPM

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
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Do urself a favor and ski wa wa tomm nite! take quad to 2k and watch the transition. Lp going over cc and ne winds . The airmass is crappy but not thaaaat bad. Just get those rates going and it will dump under them at top of Wa Wa. DUMP bet ya summit is dumpin at 8 tomm eve.

Not often im same temp as MPM

They shut the lifts at 10pm. Lol I don't think a flake falls before then.
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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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. Not a chance with this.

 

I think T-4 is possible.  What I'm expectising is between .5-2.

 

I wish I was going to be around to see this.  Even if I get skunked, the scenario is so murky that it would be fun to experience what is (or isn't) happening and getting the input from folks here as to what's likely taking place overhead.  Guess I'll just have to enjoy my heavy snow in NH.

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