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December 29th System


moneypitmike

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Man that is close for Chris m at 1k in nw ct. This nam run looks like it crushes MPM over to BIrving over to Rochester,nh to maine away from immediate. Coast.

Colder for sure on nam.

Hubbdave is close on this run to 4-6 just guessing. More change over i think after 9-10.

The nam should get the elevated interior folk posting again.

Way overzealous, jmo. 2-4" seems reasonable for N ORH hills, maybe 3-6" here in GC.  At least expectations are fairly low this time around.  

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I could see the Lakes doing ok. That is a lot of dynamics. That easily could be a 32F paste of 6" or better.

It's been a few years, but I remember some frustrating storms in Tilton-Plymouth where the airmass was marginal and a cold cold rain took hold with cooler air stuck in the notches and higher terrain in a similar setup. Perhaps the dynamics will win out this time though

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WRT E C NH and those areas aob 500' I think the colder air rushes in during system and gets them away from the glop toward paste that may fall during say ..."1'st" half.....i.e 3-8 or so pm. I'm stepping away lol.

 

GFS mos was way too cold today for much of NH. They should trickle below freezing overnight though.

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It's been a few years, but I remember some frustrating storms in Tilton-Plymouth where the airmass was marginal and a cold cold rain took hold with cooler air stuck in the notches and higher terrain in a similar setup. Perhaps the dynamics will win out this time though

 

Well I agree that the airmass sucks. No arguments here and if the lift isn't there then yes it's a 33-34 rain with 2" on the backside. But there is some real good lift. I just feel like that's a paste job for them as modeled...but if models are wrong and QPF is lower, then that is a different story.

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New p/c still says .5", new zfp has 'around an inch'.

 

 

EDIT:  BOX's AFD comments:

 

SNOWFALL/ICE POTENTIAL...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DOESN`T INTERACT OR PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM COLD AIRMASS SYSTEM IS BY US. THUS COLD AIR IS SLOW TO BLEED SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN WILL BEGIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND SLEET AFTER 21Z/22Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z ACROSS NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. THIS COMBINED WITH PRECIP RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST YIELDS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW/SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN TO ACCUMULATE/ACCURATE. THUS PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL PROJECTIONS ARE FOR 1-4 INCHES. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY GIVEN AT LEAST 3 INCHES IS NEEDED FOR NH AND ITS STILL 3 FORECAST PERIODS AWAY. HENCE MARGINAL AMOUNTS AND PTYPE ISSUES LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

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It got pretty darn toasty here today, too.

 

42.0 for a high, still at 38.9.  Doesn't feel like the end of December.  At least it looks like it for now.

 

I would go for an inch or less for the Berks. Looks like Ashburnham and Winchendon are th places to be in Massachusetts for this event.

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nice heavy glop. Good for the trails. Snowblower won't like it

Sent from my LG-E980

 

GYX has MBY in the 20s for the most part, so I'm hoping that any low ratios would mean rimey stuff that rattles thru the ice to the ground, rather than sticking and breaking things.  The only ice we've lost here is thru sublimation.

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GYX has MBY in the 20s for the most part, so I'm hoping that any low ratios would mean rimey stuff that rattles thru the ice to the ground, rather than sticking and breaking things. The only ice we've lost here is thru sublimation.

We had a few hours of melt today, But I still see .25" on the tree branches

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I'm at mount snow kinda wish I went further north but this was planned months ago. I was amazed on the way up there was a good amount of remaining snow further south from here. I have a feeling we could see a situation where it starts as rain at the base and snow at the summit. The base changes to snow in the evening with 6-8" at the summit and 3-4" at the base. Such a marginal event any extra elevation should help

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18z gfs looks ok for the lakes on the soundings verbatim. Keeps LCI near freezing. I think someplace near Washington, NH up towards New london down toward Warner will do pretty well.

Yeah, just about every model is cold enough throughout up here...even the GFS and its 2m temps. I'd be worried SE of CON, but I don't consider that "C NH".
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3500' southern vt? Rain over to 6 inches wet dump? I am hoping elevation works it's magic. Pitiful snow right now about 2 inches at 2000'. Really hoping here!

I think your good at 3500ft anywhere north of the Mass Pike, lol.

Mount Snow area should be fine for the most part...especially when 1500ft is considered a "lower elevation" compared to all the 1800-2400ft inhabited areas around there. I'd go 4-8" there.

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I think your good at 3500ft anywhere north of the Mass Pike, lol.

Mount Snow area should be fine for the most part...especially when 1500ft is considered a "lower elevation" compared to all the 1800-2400ft inhabited areas around there. I'd go 4-8" there.

If you could pick any locale to be ....in NWE to "jackpot" where would it be P freak. Just humor me.

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I think your good at 3500ft anywhere north of the Mass Pike, lol.

Mount Snow area should be fine for the most part...especially when 1500ft is considered a "lower elevation" compared to all the 1800-2400ft inhabited areas around there. I'd go 4-8" there.

I dunno, NWS Albany pretty bearish for S VT. Not even advisories S of Rutland.

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