free_man Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Man that is close for Chris m at 1k in nw ct. This nam run looks like it crushes MPM over to BIrving over to Rochester,nh to maine away from immediate. Coast. Colder for sure on nam. Hubbdave is close on this run to 4-6 just guessing. More change over i think after 9-10. The nam should get the elevated interior folk posting again. Way overzealous, jmo. 2-4" seems reasonable for N ORH hills, maybe 3-6" here in GC. At least expectations are fairly low this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I could see the Lakes doing ok. That is a lot of dynamics. That easily could be a 32F paste of 6" or better. It's been a few years, but I remember some frustrating storms in Tilton-Plymouth where the airmass was marginal and a cold cold rain took hold with cooler air stuck in the notches and higher terrain in a similar setup. Perhaps the dynamics will win out this time though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Congrats MPM on 4-8. So close..yet so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 Mike i see it starting right as ur leaving...more now cast wrt that but either way ... Ur outrunning 85% of it. Thanks. GFS looks unchanged for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 WRT E C NH and those areas aob 500' I think the colder air rushes in during system and gets them away from the glop toward paste that may fall during say ..."1'st" half.....i.e 3-8 or so pm. I'm stepping away lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 WRT E C NH and those areas aob 500' I think the colder air rushes in during system and gets them away from the glop toward paste that may fall during say ..."1'st" half.....i.e 3-8 or so pm. I'm stepping away lol. GFS mos was way too cold today for much of NH. They should trickle below freezing overnight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 The funny thing wrt to the posts about NWS collaboration, I can see some conistency between the forecast office's accumulaiton maps and the wpc probability map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 It's been a few years, but I remember some frustrating storms in Tilton-Plymouth where the airmass was marginal and a cold cold rain took hold with cooler air stuck in the notches and higher terrain in a similar setup. Perhaps the dynamics will win out this time though Well I agree that the airmass sucks. No arguments here and if the lift isn't there then yes it's a 33-34 rain with 2" on the backside. But there is some real good lift. I just feel like that's a paste job for them as modeled...but if models are wrong and QPF is lower, then that is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 GFS mos was way too cold today for much of NH. They should trickle below freezing overnight though. It got pretty darn toasty here today, too. 42.0 for a high, still at 38.9. Doesn't feel like the end of December. At least it looks like it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 New p/c still says .5", new zfp has 'around an inch'. EDIT: BOX's AFD comments: SNOWFALL/ICE POTENTIAL...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DOESN`T INTERACT OR PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM COLD AIRMASS SYSTEM IS BY US. THUS COLD AIR IS SLOW TO BLEED SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN WILL BEGIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND SLEET AFTER 21Z/22Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z ACROSS NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. THIS COMBINED WITH PRECIP RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST YIELDS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW/SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN TO ACCUMULATE/ACCURATE. THUS PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL PROJECTIONS ARE FOR 1-4 INCHES. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY GIVEN AT LEAST 3 INCHES IS NEEDED FOR NH AND ITS STILL 3 FORECAST PERIODS AWAY. HENCE MARGINAL AMOUNTS AND PTYPE ISSUES LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 3500' southern vt? Rain over to 6 inches wet dump? I am hoping elevation works it's magic. Pitiful snow right now about 2 inches at 2000'. Really hoping here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 It got pretty darn toasty here today, too. 42.0 for a high, still at 38.9. Doesn't feel like the end of December. At least it looks like it for now. I would go for an inch or less for the Berks. Looks like Ashburnham and Winchendon are th places to be in Massachusetts for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 3500' southern vt? Rain over to 6 inches wet dump? I am hoping elevation works it's magic. Pitiful snow right now about 2 inches at 2000'. Really hoping here! Are you up skiing now? Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 I would go for an inch or less for the Berks. Looks like Ashburnham and Winchendon are th places to be in Massachusetts for this event. What's driving your thinking on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 What's driving your thinking on that? I see a weak CAD signal at 850 over N ORH county. Maybe the resolution is too coarse and there is some cooler air on the east slopes of the Berks as well. I'm not to up on my climo for the Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 18z gfs looks ok for the lakes on the soundings verbatim. Keeps LCI near freezing. I think someplace near Washington, NH up towards New london down toward Warner will do pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 nice heavy glop. Good for the trails. Snowblower won't like it Sent from my LG-E980 GYX has MBY in the 20s for the most part, so I'm hoping that any low ratios would mean rimey stuff that rattles thru the ice to the ground, rather than sticking and breaking things. The only ice we've lost here is thru sublimation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 GYX has MBY in the 20s for the most part, so I'm hoping that any low ratios would mean rimey stuff that rattles thru the ice to the ground, rather than sticking and breaking things. The only ice we've lost here is thru sublimation. We had a few hours of melt today, But I still see .25" on the tree branches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Was pretty surprised we got to 39f for a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'm at mount snow kinda wish I went further north but this was planned months ago. I was amazed on the way up there was a good amount of remaining snow further south from here. I have a feeling we could see a situation where it starts as rain at the base and snow at the summit. The base changes to snow in the evening with 6-8" at the summit and 3-4" at the base. Such a marginal event any extra elevation should help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Was pretty surprised we got to 39f for a high. Socked in with clouds here until late afternoon. Managed to hit 32.2°F for ~20 minutes and then fell back below freezing. 25.2°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 18z gfs looks ok for the lakes on the soundings verbatim. Keeps LCI near freezing. I think someplace near Washington, NH up towards New london down toward Warner will do pretty well.Yeah, just about every model is cold enough throughout up here...even the GFS and its 2m temps. I'd be worried SE of CON, but I don't consider that "C NH". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Socked in with clouds here until late afternoon. Managed to hit 32.2°F for ~20 minutes and then fell back below freezing. 25.2°F We have freezing fog here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 MHT-CON corridor seems very borderline with this storm, of course. Which is just the area that my family wants to know about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 3500' southern vt? Rain over to 6 inches wet dump? I am hoping elevation works it's magic. Pitiful snow right now about 2 inches at 2000'. Really hoping here!I think your good at 3500ft anywhere north of the Mass Pike, lol. Mount Snow area should be fine for the most part...especially when 1500ft is considered a "lower elevation" compared to all the 1800-2400ft inhabited areas around there. I'd go 4-8" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 We have freezing fog here Same here. Can't see across the cove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I think your good at 3500ft anywhere north of the Mass Pike, lol. Mount Snow area should be fine for the most part...especially when 1500ft is considered a "lower elevation" compared to all the 1800-2400ft inhabited areas around there. I'd go 4-8" there. If you could pick any locale to be ....in NWE to "jackpot" where would it be P freak. Just humor me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I think your good at 3500ft anywhere north of the Mass Pike, lol. Mount Snow area should be fine for the most part...especially when 1500ft is considered a "lower elevation" compared to all the 1800-2400ft inhabited areas around there. I'd go 4-8" there. I dunno, NWS Albany pretty bearish for S VT. Not even advisories S of Rutland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I dunno, NWS Albany pretty bearish for S VT. Not even advisories S of Rutland. Mpm at the helm? Qpf concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 18z btv wrf cut totals a bit .75 from KPIT to EEN to MHT to PSM . that w-e gradient of .75 line has been more sw-ne prior . so totals cut back over to say Warner,nh-Milton nh sw maine. Doesnt jive wrt other guidance (w-e qpf distribution) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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