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December 29th System


moneypitmike

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Go tell that to the folks in Kennebec and Penobscott county, Seriously? Watches are issued 48 hrs out for any potential event

No they are not. Depends on forecast confidence and potential impact, among other variables. And I didn't mean to trivialize what those folks have gone through; I'm just skeptical that this snowfall, which will be preceded by two days of melting, will really exacerbate those problems. 

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The problem is we have not shed any ice from last weekend, And the weight of heavy wet snow on stressed trees are going to add to the problem, There are still thousands without power here now, And this is going to contribute to the problem up here

 

When the utilities restore power, they are refitting connections, and clearing the ice-coated aspects, as well.  You can have ice everywhere -- where the restoring effort is, there has been attention given to it. 

 

Again, I said, there may be additional problems...but it won't be as bad.  

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No they are not. Depends on forecast confidence and potential impact, among other variables. And I didn't mean to trivialize what those folks have gone through; I'm just skeptical that this snowfall, which will be preceded by two days of melting, will really exacerbate those problems. 

 

Your on the coast where temps may have been a few degrees above freezing, Not the case inland, There has been minimal melting

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When the utilities restore power, they are refitting connections, and clearing the ice-coated aspects, as well. You can have ice everywhere -- where the restoring effort is, there has been attention given to it.

Again, I said, there may be additional problems...but it won't be as bad.

Tip I had friends lose power when the wind blew two days ago. Ice is still on everything in the harder hit spots. Any small disruption to the equilibrium those trees have found with their ice weight, causes issues. Luckily the Champlain Valley should lose a good deal of it today in the mid/upper 30s for highs.

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Decent overnight runs for up here, but I ride the isothermal 0C up to the mid-levels. 6Z NAM pulls down some sfc cold from ME which would be nice.

 

BOX AFD reads like a coin-flip as to whether the NW territories and SW NH see any accumuilation.  WPC has GC in a 60% band for 2" and a 40% band for 4".

 

Also, it has me in the bull's eye up in Jackson over through Fryeburg.  Shocking that that area jackpots.

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As I feared, sliding the cold north

 

But it's a cold rain, Dave.  At least we have that.  Plus, you may awaken to find a light coating of snow if the precip can hang on long enough.  At least enough so it won't be a ghastly brown.

 

I'm prepared for either--though the cool down next week will be more enjoyable with snow on the ground.

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From ALY:

 

OUR LATEST FCST
THINKING IS SIMILAR TO THE WPC WINTER WX GUIDANCE WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW FOR A LARGE PORTION OF WRN NEW ENGLAND /LITCHFIELD
HILLS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT/. THE TACONICS...ERN
CATSKILLS...AND ERN DACKS WILL BE IN THE 2-4" RANGE /ISOLD 5-6
INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS/. EXPECT
MAINLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEY AREAS. THE ADVISORY WOULD BE IN
THE LATE 3RD OR 4TH PERIOD...SO WE WILL HOLD AT THIS TIME...AND
MENTION IN THE HWO. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL HINGE HEAVILY ON THE THERMAL
PROFILES.

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From ALY:

 

OUR LATEST FCST

THINKING IS SIMILAR TO THE WPC WINTER WX GUIDANCE WITH 3 TO 6

INCHES OF SNOW FOR A LARGE PORTION OF WRN NEW ENGLAND /LITCHFIELD

HILLS...BERKSHIRES...AND SRN VT/. THE TACONICS...ERN

CATSKILLS...AND ERN DACKS WILL BE IN THE 2-4" RANGE /ISOLD 5-6

INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS/. EXPECT

MAINLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEY AREAS. THE ADVISORY WOULD BE IN

THE LATE 3RD OR 4TH PERIOD...SO WE WILL HOLD AT THIS TIME...AND

MENTION IN THE HWO. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL HINGE HEAVILY ON THE THERMAL

PROFILES.

 

Interesting.  For the time being, it looks like BOX is hedging on the other side of that coin-flip and citing the SREF's < 50% of 1" as support for that.  WPC more aggressive than the models.

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Hopefully you aren't calling me a bonehead..lol. You should at least get some snow as we mentioned. 

 

LOL---far from it. :)

 

I suspect that I'll wind up with an inch or so.  Frankly, I won't really be surprised if I end up with 3 or get skunked.  It's close, but by the time temps are clearly in line, the precip's heading out of town. 

 

I need to hope for some overperforming dynamicis or subtly cooler temps to get much.  I'll be enjoying my 8-10 in Jackson.

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It's going to be an exciting dynamic situation. I think we can thump to +SN pretty fast if the intensity is there. My bigger fear has been western fringe, but the new NAM so far looks quite amped.

LOL---far from it. :)

 

I suspect that I'll wind up with an inch or so.  Frankly, I won't really be surprised if I end up with 3 or get skunked.  It's close, but by the time temps are clearly in line, the precip's heading out of town. 

 

I need to hope for some overperforming dynamicis or subtly cooler temps to get much.  I'll be enjoying my 8-10 in Jackson.

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