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December 29th System


moneypitmike

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Even the NAM flips ORH to snow now

 

 

Yeah maybe a couple hours at the end...it was a big shift SE. I won't be staying up though to see the real guidance later. :lol:

 

 

Hopefully the dynamics win out to give as many people possible a few hours of fun at the end, but we'll need those MLs to tick south.

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If Cool Spruce could avoid it, I was good.  Once it crossed him, all bets were off.

 

Where is Cool Spruce these days?

 

We deal with the coastal front all the time, It can be your friend, Or it can be your foe, Cool Spruce, I think unfortunately, He had a stroke several years back when we were still on eastern and one of his family members came on and updated us to his condition and that was the last that was heard from his family

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We deal with the coastal front all the time, It can be your friend, Or it can be your foe, Cool Spruce, I think unfortunately, He had a stroke several years back when we were still on eastern and one of his family members came on and updated us to his condition and that was the last that was heard from his family

 

I'm saddened to hear that--I enjoyed the interactions we had had.  I hope he's doing okay.

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It's too bad that stupid wave exists along the arctic boundary, because that is acting like a block from getting the cold you want into the circulation, sooner.

 

Having said that ... the 00z NAM shifted a tad E, and just peering over the FRH grid, BOS get a big QPF slug at 2/2/-1, so that's a pretty good argument that ORH-ASH is parachuting. 

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It's too bad that stupid wave exists along the arctic boundary, because that is acting like a block from getting the cold you want into the circulation, sooner.

 

Having said that ... the 00z NAM shifted a tad E, and just peering over the FRH grid, BOS get a big QPF slug at 2/2/-1, so that's a pretty good argument that ORH-ASH is parachuting. 

 

I don't understand what 2/2/-1 is referring to.  Can you explain?

 

Thanks.

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Even the NAM flips ORH to snow now

 

Yup.

 

Mike,

2/2/-1 refers to the 980, 900, and 800mb temperatures in C.  That's almost an isothermic sounding over BOS leading up and through a .75" QPF slug, so west of the immediate coastal plain, that has to be a blue thump.  Talking about Massachusetts. 

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Yup.

 

Mike,

2/2/-1 refers to the 980, 900, and 800mb temperatures in C.  That's almost an isothermic sounding over BOS leading up and through a .75" QPF slug, so west of the immediate coastal plain, that has to be a blue thump.  Talking about Massachusetts. 

 

thanks for the explanation, John.

 

GFS is going to create problems here verbatim

 

She ain't pretty, but there's always next week.

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The folks that are still without power or just getting power back are screwed

 

Maybe not ... 

 

How long has it been since a larger scaled weather event caused a grid failure up that way?   An ice storm has a way of "pruning" back a lot of the problem features, such as over-hang by foliage and/or weakened connections, much of which were fixed upon restoration.   If that is any consolation.. Not saying there won't be problems, over all, but it may not be as bad as if/when the icing never had taken place.  

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Maybe not ... 

 

How long has it been since a larger scaled weather event caused a grid failure up that way?   An ice storm has a way of "pruning" back a lot of the problem features, such as over-hang by foliage and/or weakened connections, much of which were fixed upon restoration.   If that is any consolation.. Not saying there won't be problems, over all, but it may not be as bad as if/when the icing never had taken place.

problem is ice still caked, more stress more trees, even healthy ones can only take so much, wet heavy snow takes down trees by itself , then winds with the Arctic front. Full friggin bore Maine winter
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problem is ice still caked, more stress more trees, even healthy ones can only take so much, wet heavy snow takes down trees by itself , then winds with the Arctic front. Full friggin bore Maine winter

Two days in the mid/upper 30s should take care of most of the ice that remains in trees. I was really surprised to see GYX hoist WSW's today for a borderline storm that was more than 48 hours away, and my sense is that it's related to this concern about areas that were hit hard by the ice. Seems a bit overblown to me, but I guess it makes sense to err on the side of caution.

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Maybe not ... 

 

How long has it been since a larger scaled weather event caused a grid failure up that way?   An ice storm has a way of "pruning" back a lot of the problem features, such as over-hang by foliage and/or weakened connections, much of which were fixed upon restoration.   If that is any consolation.. Not saying there won't be problems, over all, but it may not be as bad as if/when the icing never had taken place.  

 

The problem is we have not shed any ice from last weekend, And the weight of heavy wet snow on stressed trees are going to add to the problem, There are still thousands without power here now, And this is going to contribute to the problem up here

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Two days in the mid/upper 30s should take care of most of the ice that remains in trees. I was really surprised to see GYX hoist WSW's today for a borderline storm that was more than 48 hours away, and my sense is that it's related to this concern about areas that were hit hard by the ice. Seems a bit overblown to me, but I guess it makes sense to err on the side of caution.

 

Go tell that to the folks in Kennebec and Penobscott county, Seriously? Watches are issued 48 hrs out for any potential event

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We deal with the coastal front all the time, It can be your friend, Or it can be your foe, Cool Spruce, I think unfortunately, He had a stroke several years back when we were still on eastern and one of his family members came on and updated us to his condition and that was the last that was heard from his family

 

 I've heard from Scott recently.  He is trying to make a comeback but struggling with it,  I've not been able to synch up with him yet but am hopeful.

 

Ed

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