ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GFS is perfect for mby. I guess it's all down hill from here. i'd feel a little better there if the actual solution was about 25 miles SE of the GFS in the mid-levels. That's cutting it close there...but its the type of more dynamic solution you definitely want versus a much weaker Euro-esque solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 i'd feel a little better there if the actual solution was about 25 miles SE of the GFS in the mid-levels. That's cutting it close there...but its the type of more dynamic solution you definitely want versus a much weaker Euro-esque solution. I can't really see where it's centered on the ncep map--almost looks like it's over worcester, but I suspect it's further south than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I can't really see where it's centered on the ncep map--almost looks like it's over worcester, but I suspect it's further south than that. The sfc low tracks over the Canal...but the sfc means very little in this system...its all about the ML centers...850 goes from about Scranton to ORH and 700 NW of that. That's pretty good for northern areas, but no good for areas in CNE and SNE...northern CNE is ok there perhaps...like dendrite's region. Right on the line. But we've seen these tracks change from run to run. 50 miles makes a huge difference for some of those regions like where you are over to N ORH hills and Monads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 The sfc low tracks over the Canal...but the sfc means very little in this system...its all about the ML centers...850 goes from about Scranton to ORH and 700 NW of that. That's pretty good for northern areas, but no good for areas in CNE and SNE...northern CNE is ok there perhaps...like dendrite's region. Right on the line. But we've seen these tracks change from run to run. 50 miles makes a huge difference for some of those regions like where you are over to N ORH hills and Monads. Thanks--I was looking at the 700 map and couldn't really make out where it was centered; I had estimated ORH. Sucky for us. But, like you said, 50 miles will have some meaningful impacts--assuming it's 50 miles in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The sfc low tracks over the Canal...but the sfc means very little in this system...its all about the ML centers...850 goes from about Scranton to ORH and 700 NW of that. That's pretty good for northern areas, but no good for areas in CNE and SNE...northern CNE is ok there perhaps...like dendrite's region. Right on the line. But we've seen these tracks change from run to run. 50 miles makes a huge difference for some of those regions like where you are over to N ORH hills and Monads. Yeah H7 is cutting it close and I agree...I'd like it a little more SE. But these runs have all been decent up here considering the crappy antecedent airmass we'll have in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Yeah H7 is cutting it close and I agree...I'd like it a little more SE. But these runs have all been decent up here considering the crappy antecedent airmass we'll have in place. The American guidance keeps increasing the QPF up this way... 18z was like the third or fourth run in a row that's bumped it up here. Now near 0.5" on the GFS and 0.9" on the NAM, lol. And the ECMWF didn't even have measurable on the 12z run... talk about a spread. I'm leaning towards 0.25" right now, giving a 2-3" wet snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The American guidance keeps increasing the QPF up this way... 18z was like the third or fourth run in a row that's bumped it up here. Now near 0.5" on the GFS and 0.9" on the NAM, lol. And the ECMWF didn't even have measurable on the 12z run... talk about a spread. I'm leaning towards 0.25" right now, giving a 2-3" wet snowfall. Game on and then holy upslope and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The American guidance keeps increasing the QPF up this way... 18z was like the third or fourth run in a row that's bumped it up here. Now near 0.5" on the GFS and 0.9" on the NAM, lol. And the ECMWF didn't even have measurable on the 12z run... talk about a spread. I'm leaning towards 0.25" right now, giving a 2-3" wet snowfall. Normally ncep will fold shortly and the euro will come left/wet. I like your reasoning as based on what seems to happen so often we will see the models come to the middle. I am hoping for 4-8/5-10 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Game on and then holy upslope and cold I won't be on-board until the ECM shows something... even anything, lol. I just can't believe it didn't even have measurable vs. what the NAM/GFS are showing. The cold will not be denied... and we should be able to put down some NW flow fluff after the storm with the arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Normally ncep will fold shortly and the euro will come left/wet. I like your reasoning as based on what seems to happen so often we will see the models come to the middle. I am hoping for 4-8/5-10 here lol... yeah I think you can sort of see where this is going and it happens a lot. The NCEP guidance will over-do the NW trend, and back SE, while the ECM slowly ticks a little west to arrive at the final solution without over-shooting it and then coming back like the NCEP models. Oh yeah, are you in Sunday River for this? That's a lock for a nice, dense, synoptic snowfall. Should absolutely rip for a 6-hour period on Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Normally ncep will fold shortly and the euro will come left/wet. I like your reasoning as based on what seems to happen so often we will see the models come to the middle. I am hoping for 4-8/5-10 here 4-8" looks right for you up there right mow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I won't be on-board until the ECM shows something... even anything, lol. I just can't believe it didn't even have measurable vs. what the NAM/GFS are showing. The cold will not be denied... and we should be able to put down some NW flow fluff after the storm with the arctic front. ecens mean threw you about 0.15"...similar to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Thinking 5-6, hoping 7-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 If only it were cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 i hope NNE cashes in....the glades at Jay need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 Curious that Rick hasn't poked in here recently. He should be in a pretty good position with this one I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Curious that Rick hasn't poked in here recently. He should be in a pretty good position with this one I think.Does he not have a sneaky warm layer between 775-825mbHavent seen a KALB sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Curious that Rick hasn't poked in here recently. He should be in a pretty good position with this one I think. He is hoping the west trend stops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Does he not have a sneaky warm layer between 775-825mb Havent seen a KALB sounding read Alb AFD ,actually take about the dry air causing evaporative cooling, they are leaning isothermal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 read Alb AFD ,actually take about the dry air causing evaporative cooling, they are leaning isothermal Sounds pretty much up in air...leaning snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 Sounds pretty much up in air...leaning snow Very marginal temps here being a little less very marginal there. Rick ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'm in BGM CWA, Rick isn't too far out of it. They are not too bullish, talking maybe a couple of inches after it changes to all snow Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Expect as usual QPF increases as we get closer on Euro, ML goes south of ORH, MPM off the plank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Expect as usual QPF increases as we get closer on Euro, ML goes south of ORH, MPM off the plank. Worry cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 read Alb AFD ,actually take about the dry air causing evaporative cooling, they are leaning isothermal The airmass blows! I doubt many see snow south of NH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 Worry cancel In response to my worry, I'm sifting through lakefronts in ME and NH. I've had it with this sitting on the line crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 Amazing how consistent the NAM is....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Amazing how consistent the NAM is....... you could set a clock by itA broken clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Even the NAM flips ORH to snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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