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December 29th System


moneypitmike

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GFS is perfect for mby. I guess it's all down hill from here.

 

 

i'd feel a little better there if the actual solution was about 25 miles SE of the GFS in the mid-levels. That's cutting it close there...but its the type of more dynamic solution you definitely want versus a much weaker Euro-esque solution.

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i'd feel a little better there if the actual solution was about 25 miles SE of the GFS in the mid-levels. That's cutting it close there...but its the type of more dynamic solution you definitely want versus a much weaker Euro-esque solution.

 

I can't really see where it's centered on the ncep map--almost looks like it's over worcester, but I suspect it's further south than that.

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I can't really see where it's centered on the ncep map--almost looks like it's over worcester, but I suspect it's further south than that.

 

 

The sfc low tracks over the Canal...but the sfc means very little in this system...its all about the ML centers...850 goes from about Scranton to ORH and 700 NW of that. That's pretty good for northern areas, but no good for areas in CNE and SNE...northern CNE is ok there perhaps...like dendrite's region. Right on the line.

 

But we've seen these tracks change from run to run. 50 miles makes a huge difference for some of those regions like where you are over to N ORH hills and Monads.

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The sfc low tracks over the Canal...but the sfc means very little in this system...its all about the ML centers...850 goes from about Scranton to ORH and 700 NW of that. That's pretty good for northern areas, but no good for areas in CNE and SNE...northern CNE is ok there perhaps...like dendrite's region. Right on the line.

 

But we've seen these tracks change from run to run. 50 miles makes a huge difference for some of those regions like where you are over to N ORH hills and Monads.

 

Thanks--I was looking at the 700 map and couldn't really make out where it was centered; I had estimated ORH.  Sucky for us.  But, like you said, 50 miles will have some meaningful impacts--assuming it's 50 miles in the right direction.

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The sfc low tracks over the Canal...but the sfc means very little in this system...its all about the ML centers...850 goes from about Scranton to ORH and 700 NW of that. That's pretty good for northern areas, but no good for areas in CNE and SNE...northern CNE is ok there perhaps...like dendrite's region. Right on the line.

 

But we've seen these tracks change from run to run. 50 miles makes a huge difference for some of those regions like where you are over to N ORH hills and Monads.

Yeah H7 is cutting it close and I agree...I'd like it a little more SE. But these runs have all been decent up here considering the crappy antecedent airmass we'll have in place.
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Yeah H7 is cutting it close and I agree...I'd like it a little more SE. But these runs have all been decent up here considering the crappy antecedent airmass we'll have in place.

 

The American guidance keeps increasing the QPF up this way... 18z was like the third or fourth run in a row that's bumped it up here.  Now near 0.5" on the GFS and 0.9" on the NAM, lol. 

 

And the ECMWF didn't even have measurable on the 12z run... talk about a spread.  I'm leaning towards 0.25" right now, giving a 2-3" wet snowfall.

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The American guidance keeps increasing the QPF up this way... 18z was like the third or fourth run in a row that's bumped it up here.  Now near 0.5" on the GFS and 0.9" on the NAM, lol. 

 

And the ECMWF didn't even have measurable on the 12z run... talk about a spread.  I'm leaning towards 0.25" right now, giving a 2-3" wet snowfall.

Game on and then holy upslope and cold

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The American guidance keeps increasing the QPF up this way... 18z was like the third or fourth run in a row that's bumped it up here. Now near 0.5" on the GFS and 0.9" on the NAM, lol.

And the ECMWF didn't even have measurable on the 12z run... talk about a spread. I'm leaning towards 0.25" right now, giving a 2-3" wet snowfall.

Normally ncep will fold shortly and the euro will come left/wet. I like your reasoning as based on what seems to happen so often we will see the models come to the middle.

I am hoping for 4-8/5-10 here

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Game on and then holy upslope and cold

 

I won't be on-board until the ECM shows something... even anything, lol.  I just can't believe it didn't even have measurable vs. what the NAM/GFS are showing. 

 

The cold will not be denied... and we should be able to put down some NW flow fluff after the storm with the arctic front. 

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Normally ncep will fold shortly and the euro will come left/wet. I like your reasoning as based on what seems to happen so often we will see the models come to the middle.

I am hoping for 4-8/5-10 here

 

lol... yeah I think you can sort of see where this is going and it happens a lot.  The NCEP guidance will over-do the NW trend, and back SE, while the ECM slowly ticks a little west to arrive at the final solution without over-shooting it and then coming back like the NCEP models.

 

Oh yeah, are you in Sunday River for this?  That's a lock for a nice, dense, synoptic snowfall.  Should absolutely rip for a 6-hour period on Sunday evening.

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I won't be on-board until the ECM shows something... even anything, lol.  I just can't believe it didn't even have measurable vs. what the NAM/GFS are showing. 

 

The cold will not be denied... and we should be able to put down some NW flow fluff after the storm with the arctic front. 

ecens mean threw you about 0.15"...similar to 00z.

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