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December 29th System


moneypitmike

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I suppose, but its a totally different look versus saying "rinse and repeat" for December as a whole.

I don't see much similarity at all. This one does NOT have an arctic airmass ahead of it...unless you loosely qualify today as an "arctic airmass" but it is out of here by Saturday which is still 24 hours before the storm hits. Yesterday was an example of a system with an arctic airmass ahead of it...and it ended up snowing more in SNE than the forecast originally had. Ditto for many of the events mid-month.

Yeah I was more thinking of the 3-day rain and ice event that wiped out a lot of snowpack just prior to Xmas.

I'm just loosely thinking about it though...

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Good thing All Snow pulled his post, I was going to say, ORH FTW, lets see what the Dr says

 

 

Yeah I actually thought it looked colder for those spots...because of the UVVs...at the onset it may have looked a tick warmer, but it gets erased.

 

Still not a very attractive looking system though. :lol:

 

 

Guess i should have kept it ginxy  poo

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I dunno... looks good as far as everything but temps :axe:  

 

 

ML center is still a bit too far NW on this run. I also really hate the look of the primary low in the lakes displacing the frontal boundary north initially.

 

Hopefully things tick a bit colder and there's a few hours of fun Sunday evening. Otherwise, its onto the arctic cold and early January pattern.

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ML center is still a bit too far NW on this run. I also really hate the look of the primary low in the lakes displacing the frontal boundary north initially.

 

Hopefully things tick a bit colder and there's a few hours of fun Sunday evening. Otherwise, its onto the arctic cold and early January pattern.

Def not stacked...

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Just about isothermal even at ORH at 60 hours..that's pretty close for spots in the interior. It will have to work out perfectly though.

 

 

I'm ready to pack it in and just had to Jackson.

 

Will--I was trying to see where the 700 low was tracking--I couldn't find your earlier post where you said it would need to pass in order to present snow possibilities.  But it looks to be passing pretty far inland??  I'm probably completely misreading the map.

 

27.2/17

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ML center is still a bit too far NW on this run. I also really hate the look of the primary low in the lakes displacing the frontal boundary north initially.

 

Hopefully things tick a bit colder and there's a few hours of fun Sunday evening. Otherwise, its onto the arctic cold and early January pattern.

 

Its definitely not pretty. Would be nice if that front could sag a little further south ahead of it. 

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The week of the two snow storms featured events that were NOT similar.  Period.  One was a cold "needle-threader" in terms of timing and availability, on the backside of which an arctic incursion of air took place, ...setting the stage for an amplifying clipper (NJ model low).   Completely different ... but the outcome was two storms of the winter variety, in fairly close temporal spacing. 

 

Then as others have noted, the cold pattern rolled out below 45N (~), and we had a temporary thaw.  For S NH/NE Mass this was less the case as about half that thaw was interrupted by the cold tuck from down the DEM coast (but that is a local/studies type phenom that should not belie the overall synoptic truth).  

 

I don't see much similarity in all that, which has spanned the last ~ three weeks.  If anything, this has all been more like a cornucopia pattern, with lots of different types of systems/events.  

 

As we mused yesterday ... this thing on Sunday/night is like the inverse needle-threader.  Typically that phrase has been used to describe a system that has very little wiggle-room, and has to pass through a key-slot in timing and distance(s), so to bring winter enthusiasm a chance to rejoice.   In this paradigm, however, it's threading the needle on the warm side -- or at least trying to.. I see the background canvas still edging toward cold anomalies as the better probability, so this thing rolling up the coast during a pause in that suffices that description in my mind.

 

Anyway, I was just noticing the 12z NAM's FRH grid starts things off with .22" at BOS, with an 800mb temperature of 0C.  The intervening 900mb layer is +3C, and the T1 (980) is +4. That's actually cold from the top-down, and for me is a red flag ...well, yellow flag may be better.   

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Oh so close...if this is a degree or two colder, this becomes a 12-16" snow bomb for GC. As it is on the GFS, it's rain to wet snow with several inches of accumulation above 1K with up to 6" at 2K. NAM is a torch and isn't much more than a bit of slop on the backside for this neck of the woods.

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8 folks on this thread as the GFS rolls out.

 

Total, utter, complete bail on this system by the populace.

 

 

Most do not think its worth the time following. I cannot blame them. Its not a very high probability system for SNE...even the higher terrain. I could see a couple inches, but many at this stage aren't all that excited over that. To each his own...

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albany's sounding a lot better forecast wise for lowlands like AQW than BOX is for here.  Though even there, it deosn't sound like a whole lot coming in the form of snow.

 

AQW from albany:

 

Sunday: A chance of rain between 1pm and 4pm, then rain and sleet likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Light and variable wind becoming south around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Sunday Night: Snow, possibly mixed with rain and sleet, becoming all snow after 7pm. Low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

 

Pit from BOX:

 

Sunday: Rain likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 2am. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
 

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You don't think it looks good for your area right now?

 

I think its possible it could flip to snow here if the mid level centers track far enough southeast and we get good VVs. Lack of elevation will hurt in such a marginal air mass unless we can drag some cold down from Maine. I wouldnt expect too much at this point and hope it trends a little colder. Its pretty close on the 12z gfs for ASH and MHT but I would want it a degree or 2 colder to really get excited. Still some time to work out the details. 

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Oh so close...if this is a degree or two colder, this becomes a 12-16" snow bomb for GC. As it is on the GFS, it's rain to wet snow with several inches of accumulation above 1K with up to 6" at 2K. NAM is a torch and isn't much more than a bit of slop on the backside for this neck of the woods.

 

I'll begrudgingly take rain here if at least the ski areas in the Berks and S VT can get a plastering which still certainly seems possible.

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