powderfreak Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I suppose, but its a totally different look versus saying "rinse and repeat" for December as a whole. I don't see much similarity at all. This one does NOT have an arctic airmass ahead of it...unless you loosely qualify today as an "arctic airmass" but it is out of here by Saturday which is still 24 hours before the storm hits. Yesterday was an example of a system with an arctic airmass ahead of it...and it ended up snowing more in SNE than the forecast originally had. Ditto for many of the events mid-month. Yeah I was more thinking of the 3-day rain and ice event that wiped out a lot of snowpack just prior to Xmas. I'm just loosely thinking about it though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Pressure not as low as prev runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Yeah I actually thought it looked colder for those spots...because of the UVVs...at the onset it may have looked a tick warmer, but it gets erased. Still not a very attractive looking system though. I dunno... looks good as far as everything but temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 It was a better run up here then 06z, Looks like hvy hvy paste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Yeah I actually thought it looked colder for those spots...because of the UVVs...at the onset it may have looked a tick warmer, but it gets erased. Still not a very attractive looking system though. If you were home you would hit it in a second though, oh crap innuendo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Good thing All Snow pulled his post, I was going to say, ORH FTW, lets see what the Dr says Yeah I actually thought it looked colder for those spots...because of the UVVs...at the onset it may have looked a tick warmer, but it gets erased. Still not a very attractive looking system though. Guess i should have kept it ginxy poo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 If you were home you would hit it in a second though, oh crap innuendo? Shelby Scott is not impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I dunno... looks good as far as everything but temps ML center is still a bit too far NW on this run. I also really hate the look of the primary low in the lakes displacing the frontal boundary north initially. Hopefully things tick a bit colder and there's a few hours of fun Sunday evening. Otherwise, its onto the arctic cold and early January pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 If you were home you would hit it in a second though, oh crap innuendo? I'm going to be in Princeton this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 ML center is still a bit too far NW on this run. I also really hate the look of the primary low in the lakes displacing the frontal boundary north initially. Hopefully things tick a bit colder and there's a few hours of fun Sunday evening. Otherwise, its onto the arctic cold and early January pattern. Def not stacked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 Just about isothermal even at ORH at 60 hours..that's pretty close for spots in the interior. It will have to work out perfectly though. I'm ready to pack it in and just had to Jackson. Will--I was trying to see where the 700 low was tracking--I couldn't find your earlier post where you said it would need to pass in order to present snow possibilities. But it looks to be passing pretty far inland?? I'm probably completely misreading the map. 27.2/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 ML center is still a bit too far NW on this run. I also really hate the look of the primary low in the lakes displacing the frontal boundary north initially. Hopefully things tick a bit colder and there's a few hours of fun Sunday evening. Otherwise, its onto the arctic cold and early January pattern. Its definitely not pretty. Would be nice if that front could sag a little further south ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 If we can eek out a couple inches on the back end, it might be crunchy for a few days following. Boy--it'll be a little chilly up in Big Black River come Tues-Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Its definitely not pretty. Would be nice if that front could sag a little further south ahead of it. You don't think it looks good for your area right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I'm going to be in Princeton this weekend. score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 If we can eek out a couple inches on the back end, it might be crunchy for a few days following. Boy--it'll be a little chilly up in Big Black River come Tues-Wed. -40F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 8 folks on this thread as the GFS rolls out. Total, utter, complete bail on this system by the populace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Another good GFS run up here. Let's get this sucker inside 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 -40F I'd like to see what that's like--but I don't think I'd want it frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The week of the two snow storms featured events that were NOT similar. Period. One was a cold "needle-threader" in terms of timing and availability, on the backside of which an arctic incursion of air took place, ...setting the stage for an amplifying clipper (NJ model low). Completely different ... but the outcome was two storms of the winter variety, in fairly close temporal spacing. Then as others have noted, the cold pattern rolled out below 45N (~), and we had a temporary thaw. For S NH/NE Mass this was less the case as about half that thaw was interrupted by the cold tuck from down the DEM coast (but that is a local/studies type phenom that should not belie the overall synoptic truth). I don't see much similarity in all that, which has spanned the last ~ three weeks. If anything, this has all been more like a cornucopia pattern, with lots of different types of systems/events. As we mused yesterday ... this thing on Sunday/night is like the inverse needle-threader. Typically that phrase has been used to describe a system that has very little wiggle-room, and has to pass through a key-slot in timing and distance(s), so to bring winter enthusiasm a chance to rejoice. In this paradigm, however, it's threading the needle on the warm side -- or at least trying to.. I see the background canvas still edging toward cold anomalies as the better probability, so this thing rolling up the coast during a pause in that suffices that description in my mind. Anyway, I was just noticing the 12z NAM's FRH grid starts things off with .22" at BOS, with an 800mb temperature of 0C. The intervening 900mb layer is +3C, and the T1 (980) is +4. That's actually cold from the top-down, and for me is a red flag ...well, yellow flag may be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Another good GFS run up here. Let's get this sucker inside 36hrs. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 8 folks on this thread as the GFS rolls out. Total, utter, complete bail on this system by the populace. Take lots of pics for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I'd like to see what that's like--but I don't think I'd want it frequently. I can tell you first hand what -33F feels like, You cant breathe thru your nose for starters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Oh so close...if this is a degree or two colder, this becomes a 12-16" snow bomb for GC. As it is on the GFS, it's rain to wet snow with several inches of accumulation above 1K with up to 6" at 2K. NAM is a torch and isn't much more than a bit of slop on the backside for this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 8 folks on this thread as the GFS rolls out. Total, utter, complete bail on this system by the populace. Most do not think its worth the time following. I cannot blame them. Its not a very high probability system for SNE...even the higher terrain. I could see a couple inches, but many at this stage aren't all that excited over that. To each his own... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 albany's sounding a lot better forecast wise for lowlands like AQW than BOX is for here. Though even there, it deosn't sound like a whole lot coming in the form of snow. AQW from albany: Sunday: A chance of rain between 1pm and 4pm, then rain and sleet likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Light and variable wind becoming south around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.Sunday Night: Snow, possibly mixed with rain and sleet, becoming all snow after 7pm. Low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Pit from BOX: Sunday: Rain likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%.Sunday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 2am. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I can tell you first hand what -33F feels like, You cant breathe thru your nose for starters and your car battery is most likely dead along with frozen break lines. You can, however, entertain yourself by throwing pots of hot water in the air and watching them freeze/evaporate in mid-air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 You don't think it looks good for your area right now? I think its possible it could flip to snow here if the mid level centers track far enough southeast and we get good VVs. Lack of elevation will hurt in such a marginal air mass unless we can drag some cold down from Maine. I wouldnt expect too much at this point and hope it trends a little colder. Its pretty close on the 12z gfs for ASH and MHT but I would want it a degree or 2 colder to really get excited. Still some time to work out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 I can tell you first hand what -33F feels like, You cant breathe thru your nose for starters I guess you need to rely on gills or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Oh so close...if this is a degree or two colder, this becomes a 12-16" snow bomb for GC. As it is on the GFS, it's rain to wet snow with several inches of accumulation above 1K with up to 6" at 2K. NAM is a torch and isn't much more than a bit of slop on the backside for this neck of the woods. I'll begrudgingly take rain here if at least the ski areas in the Berks and S VT can get a plastering which still certainly seems possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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