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December 29th System


moneypitmike

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No one says it need to be pretty.  Snow is snow, right?  I'd personally like to see ORH about 0.5c cooler to feel comfortable there on the GFS.  Have not looked too close to the Euro.

Believe me Will when he was living there saw many of those, its pretty climo in this situation too. LOL who would have thrown away that sounding in April 97? 

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Believe me Will when he was living there saw many of those, its pretty climo in this situation too. LOL who would have thrown away that sounding in April 97? 

 

Don't disagree,  Devil is in the details.  That's why I was shocked, at first, when I saw the graphical output and had looked at the 06z GFS.  Definitely a fine line being walked there and we need to beware of these southern stream systems.  Antecedent airmass not great so I may hedge myself a touch on the warmer side and favor just N & W of ORH for accumulating snows.  Jackpost to me will be Northern Greens, Whites and over into Mahoosucs of Maine.  Maybe ORH sees 1-3"?

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You'll need a mid-level track SE of probably HFD-BOS to have a shot in the elevated interior of SNE...to make the dynamic cooling scenario work out...otherwise its just going to be flat out too warm.

 

In a scenario like the Euro or even some of these really marginal GFS runs, the ML track is flirting just enough SE to try and help the cooling process along not with just UVM, but also drawing in some drier/cP air from up in Maine.

 

 

I'd certainly not go around telling people its going to be a paste bomb...even in Ashburnham or Jaffrey...but its possible it ends as a few hours of fun. Keep expectations low, but hope for the best while keeping an eye on the trends.

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The NAM is my best shot out here. The others are just going to fringe me anyway. I'd rather take my risks with p type.

You'll need a mid-level track SE of probably HFD-BOS to have a shot in the elevated interior of SNE...to make the dynamic cooling scenario work out...otherwise its just going to be flat out too warm.

 

In a scenario like the Euro or even some of these really marginal GFS runs, the ML track is flirting just enough SE to try and help the cooling process along not with just UVM, but also drawing in some drier/cP air from up in Maine.

 

 

I'd certainly not go around telling people its going to be a paste bomb...even in Ashburnham or Jaffrey...but its possible it ends as a few hours of fun. Keep expectations low, but hope for the best while keeping an eye on the trends.

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Scoots I disagree. This is rinse repeat in the sense that we have tough cold but it bails in sne with no blocking. No clear cut cold systems yet

All our other storms worked with cold though. Yes it was tough for the Cape, but most areas did well. This next storm is completely different. This is a different beast on Sunday.

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Scoots I disagree. This is rinse repeat in the sense that we have tough cold but it bails in sne with no blocking. No clear cut cold systems yet

 

 

I don't see this as similar at all to previous storms...the previous airmasses were way colder and a lot of the region had significant snow.

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You'll need a mid-level track SE of probably HFD-BOS to have a shot in the elevated interior of SNE...to make the dynamic cooling scenario work out...otherwise its just going to be flat out too warm.

 

In a scenario like the Euro or even some of these really marginal GFS runs, the ML track is flirting just enough SE to try and help the cooling process along not with just UVM, but also drawing in some drier/cP air from up in Maine.

 

 

I'd certainly not go around telling people its going to be a paste bomb...even in Ashburnham or Jaffrey...but its possible it ends as a few hours of fun. Keep expectations low, but hope for the best while keeping an eye on the trends.

I think the only LOWER elevations that have a shot are in ne MA.

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Well the last system most certainly wasn't a snowstorm for many, lol...it was like a 3-day rain event in-between arctic blasts with icing up this way.

Prior to that it was really cold (relative to normal) and warming up as the systems moved in...but warming up quickly. This one has an awful airmass ahead of it. I think what he's mostly saying is we are getting great cold shots but it has tended to really warm up for the precip events. This event is similar to the last one in that there's not much cold ahead of it...even BTV had to advect cold in during the last storm.

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Well the last system most certainly wasn't a snowstorm for many, lol...it was like a 3-day rain event in-between arctic blasts with icing up this way.

Prior to that it was really cold (relative to normal) and warming up as the systems moved in...but warming up quickly. This one has an awful airmass ahead of it. I think what he's mostly saying is we are getting great cold shots but it has tended to really warm up for the precip events. This event is similar to the last one in that there's not much cold ahead of it...even BTV had to advect cold in during the last storm.

that tends to happen with a strong polar vortex
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Well the last system most certainly wasn't a snowstorm for many, lol...it was like a 3-day rain event in-between arctic blasts with icing up this way.

Prior to that it was really cold (relative to normal) and warming up as the systems moved in...but warming up quickly. This one has an awful airmass ahead of it. I think what he's mostly saying is we are getting great cold shots but it has tended to really warm up for the precip events.

 

 

I suppose, but its a totally different look versus saying "rinse and repeat" for December as a whole.

 

I don't see much similarity at all. This one does NOT have an arctic airmass ahead of it...unless you loosely qualify today as an "arctic airmass" but it is out of here by Saturday which is still 24 hours before the storm hits. Yesterday was an example of a system with an arctic airmass ahead of it...and it ended up snowing more in SNE than the forecast originally had. Ditto for many of the events mid-month.

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gfs looks a tick colder over SNH, AFN gets pounded looking at the soundings and even over to ASH and MHT its pretty close. 

 

 

Just about isothermal even at ORH at 60 hours..that's pretty close for spots in the interior. It will have to work out perfectly though.

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Good thing All Snow pulled his post, I was going to say, ORH FTW, lets see what the Dr says

 

 

Yeah I actually thought it looked colder for those spots...because of the UVVs...at the onset it may have looked a tick warmer, but it gets erased.

 

Still not a very attractive looking system though. :lol:

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