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December 29th System


moneypitmike

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I'm not really looking at the soundings verbatim becuase they have flip flopped quite a bit...but if the ML center takes a Euro track, I could def see some paste collapsing SE at the end. Sort of like Oct 2009 when we had marginal 0C temps down to about 900mb to perhaps 925mb in N ORH county....and snow was ruled out for everyone outside of the highest spots. Add some intense UVM in and we saw what happened.

 

Not predicting the same thing but just sort of thinking out loud on possibilities.

Climo time of year too, I made a cardinal mistake and read here before looking at the synoptic, I agree with you that this setup calls for a paste bomb in the Berks, ORH hills too. guess we will see.

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I'm not really looking at the soundings verbatim becuase they have flip flopped quite a bit...but if the ML center takes a Euro track, I could def see some paste collapsing SE at the end. Sort of like Oct 2009 when we had marginal 0C temps down to about 900mb to perhaps 925mb in N ORH county....and snow was ruled out for everyone outside of the highest spots. Add some intense UVM in and we saw what happened.

 

Not predicting the same thing but just sort of thinking out loud on possibilities.

 

Yeah I see that.. Just seems like it's a bit too warm outside of maybe you and points north. It's almost going to have to tear a whole in the atmosphere to get snow. It's not like the 850s are at 0C to start..it needs work just to cool it to -1C. If this could move SE then I think the chance is much better for >2". But 1-2" at the tail end is possible for you guys.

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There's been some innuendos posted (and deleted) on here over the past several days.

 

Cut the crap...esp in the storm threads. Just help us make it easier to moderate and for others to read. Whether they are PG-13 vs rated R might be up for debate, but what isn't is that they will take threads off topic for like half a dozen posts and its more work for us.

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There's been some innuendos posted (and deleted) on here over the past several days.

 

Cut the crap...esp in the storm threads. Just help us make it easier to moderate and for others to read. Whether they are PG-13 vs rated R might be up for debate, but what isn't is that they will take threads off topic for like half a dozen posts and its more work for us.

Self moderation ftw

I deleted my own lol

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45 but I was talking generically, to say no one sees snow etc like he does does not address the entire board, look at the poll we are a diverse group spread out over the area. I took the back roads to work today, 33 miles, saw 6 cars the entire way until work.Nice cover of snow in the hills by the way.

Yeah the little bit of snow yesterday really beautified the region. Sparkling winter day today but my walk requires some traction. All good...it's New England in winter.

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I saw an image from the rpm last night that looked decent. But not sure what run it was based on

 

It does what I mentioned yesterday. It tracks the cold front slipping SW through Maine and as the low develops...it pulls the cold into the circulation. To me that's the best way to get snow outside of the 1k hills near NH. That seems like a stretch, but the cold isn't that far away. I think either that, or an uber VV bomb is needed to flip to snow. I'm pretty sure the Monads will get a good dumping and perhaps down to the extreme nrn ORH hills. South of that..I just don't know. Like Will said...maybe it flips near the end for some elevated areas. Hopefully the runs today tick SE. The airmass ahead of this low is beyond annoying.

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I could see this as a transitional storm from non blocks to a blocking type pattern with the NAO going negative for a time and the 2-4th storm is the one with the blocking regime and we get smoked by the 6z GFS with a sub 980mb low, a bit too far west for coastal locales though verbatim.  I think this is just the appetizer for the main event on the 2-4th.  If we get anything for accumulation even as far southeast as the upper Cape for this storm is just a bonus, but as we get into January the storms start to favor a further southeast track as the air just gets colder naturally.

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