Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

January 2014 General Discussion


Powerball

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 639
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Probably the coldest point forecasts I've seen around here since 2009.

 

Basically it's saying we go below zero Sunday evening and stay below zero through at least Wed morning lol.

  • Tonight A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 1. Wind chill values as low as -15. North wind around 15 mph. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • Thursday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 10. Wind chill values as low as -15. North wind 10 to 15 mph.
  • Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around -18. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest after midnight.
  • Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 15. Wind chill values as low as -25.
  • Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 14.
  • Saturday A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32.
  • Saturday Night A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6.
  • Sunday A slight chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 12.
  • Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -10.
  • Monday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -8.
  • Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -19.
  • Tuesday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -7.
  • Tuesday Night A slight chance of snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around -9.
  • Wednesday A slight chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 14.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That storm, along with December 10-11, 1992, February 8, 2013 and - in Ottawa - December 16,2007 are the best storms of my life.

 

For me, the other storms don't even come into the conversation. February 2013 was awesome but no TSSN, no 2"/hr rates, no heavy, wet, caking snow. And even total amounts were less than Jan 1999, although only by an inch and change.

 

January 1999 saw 15.1" of snow with heavy PL tainting. Without the contamination we'd probably be looking at a two footer (Notice Buttonville recorded 23.8", probably with less PL).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For me, the other storms don't even come into the conversation. February 2013 was awesome but no TSSN, no 2"/hr rates, no heavy, wet, caking snow. And even total amounts were less than Jan 1999, although only by an inch and change.

 

January 1999 saw 15.1" of snow with heavy PL tainting. Without the contamination we'd probably be looking at a two footer (Notice Buttonville recorded 23.8", probably with less PL).

I remember getting up the morning of the 3rd and the snow being up to my waist - and I was 18 at the time. That month also saw the coldest temperature I have ever recorded at my place in Toronto - minus 26 without the wind on the 14th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

General comment about the ongoing storms and cold, big storm, & historic cold...

With this snow and blowing and drifting lasting thru Thursday PM and then cold for Friday, where does NWS/broadcast mets even begin to adequately highlight/alert the public about the next systems. I think tomorrow's cycle of news and info will be interesting. Too much model consensus to wait any longer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

YYZ has now reached -1F, our first subzero F this season. Picked up about 1cm of pixie dust last night, proper dendrites had trouble forming despite the great cold temps that could have produced some high ratio fluff.

Ice storm really burned me out in terms of model watching. Time to get back in the game though with some big cold and snow to watch in the coming days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not for our area, but International Falls was -42F which i believe is a record.

 

edit:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
504 AM CST THU JAN 02 2014

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN...

THE TEMPERATURE WAS -42 DEGREES AT 5 AM IN INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN.
THIS TEMPERATURE BREAKS THE OLD RECORD LOW FOR THIS DATE OF -37
DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET IN 2010. THE TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY FALL
FURTHER THIS MORNING.

$

 
 
Heading our way soon.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fun times in Minnesota!

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1023 AM CST THU JAN 2 2014


...LOW TEMPERATURE REPORTS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...

LOCATION                       TEMP      TIME/DATE
BABBITT                        -47       0700 AM 01/02
EMBARASS                       -47       0800 AM 01/02
TOGO                           -45       0700 AM 01/02
6 NW ASH LAKE                  -44       0735 AM 01/02
CRANE LAKE                     -44       0804 AM 01/02
ORR 3E                         -43       0600 AM 01/02
BRIMSON 2S                     -43       0800 AM 01/02
7 E EFFIE                      -43       0735 AM 01/02
2 NNE BIGFORK                  -42       0807 AM 01/02
INTERNATIONAL FALLS            -42       0455 AM 01/02
5 S ELY                        -41       0804 AM 01/02
LITTLEFORK RAWS               -41       0808 AM 01/02
LITTLEFORK                     -40       0730 AM 01/02
SOUTH FORK KAWISHIWI RIVER     -40       0830 AM 01/02
3 S TOWER                      -40       0730 AM 01/02
KABETOGAMA GENERAL STORE       -40       0700 AM 01/02
4 SW ORR                       -40       0908 AM 01/02
5 E SEA GULL LAKE              -40       0804 AM 01/02
ISABELLA 14W                   -40       0900 AM 01/02
BIGFORK                        -40       0813 AM 01/02
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models have been hinting at a mid month thaw of sorts. 

 

Cold Winter Unfolding Thus Far Per Outlook as Preferred December Analogue Trajectories Verify

Analogues Point to a Cold January Likely with Coldest Air of the Season Thus Far Due Early Next Week With Some Moderation Late

http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2014/01/cold-winter-unfolding-thus-far-per.html

 

Start to see signs around D8-10 in both the GFS and EURO about that January thaw. If the warm up is not transient it'll be interesting to see what the departures look like at the end of the month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models have been hinting at a mid month thaw of sorts. 

 

 

Start to see signs around D8-10 in both the GFS and EURO about that January thaw. If the warm up is not transient it'll be interesting to see what the departures look like at the end of the month.

 

Stratospheric temperatures hint at a possible SSW later in the month which would aide in developing a more pronounced -AO/NAO anomaly as we move into February. 

 

It looks like we will see a warm-up; however, i firmly believe the warm anomalies will be transient as the pattern reloads itself after about Jan 18th. Thereafter, the MJO will move into phases 7,8 and 1 which translate to cooler anomalies in the East. From about Jan 10th to Jan 20th or so, is when the warm-up is possible. In that time frame, areas in the PNW have the best chance of seeing decent snowfall as a trough develops. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cold Winter Unfolding Thus Far Per Outlook as Preferred December Analogue Trajectories Verify

Analogues Point to a Cold January Likely with Coldest Air of the Season Thus Far Due Early Next Week With Some Moderation Late

http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2014/01/cold-winter-unfolding-thus-far-per.html

Nice. Surprised you didnt do a forecast on this strange storm we just had lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ground blizzard! Maybe.

 

WWA up for the LOT CWA for blowing and drifting snow tomorrow afternoon through Sat am. Discussion below.

 

BIGGER ISSUE AND CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST IS WE`RE GOING TO HOIST
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW FOR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH ANTICIPATE THE WORST
CONDITIONS TO BE TOMORROW EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON VERY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
TIGHTENING GRADIENT TO RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20KT SEEM LIKELY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT
LIKELY. GIVEN THE VERY LOW WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW IT SHOULD BE
EASILY PICKED UP AND WHIPPED AROUND BY THESE STRONG WINDS
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN
OPEN AND RURAL AREAS. A SIMILAR EVENT WITH LESS SNOW BUT WINDS
ABOUT 5-10KT STRONGER PRODUCED A GROUND BLIZZARD THAT CLOSED
INTERSTATES BACK ON JAN 30 2008 AND AM CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE
CLOSE TO A GROUND BLIZZARD AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING IN OPEN AREAS.
GIVEN THAT ROAD CREWS HAVE BEEN GOING FOR 48 HOURS OR MORE WITHOUT
A BREAK AND THAT THIS IS A NEW ADDITION TO THE FORECAST...HAVE
OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW ON THIS SHIFT
TO RAISE AWARENESS AND GET THE WORD OUT EARLY.

SHOULD HAVE UPDATED ZFP/WSW OUT SHORTLY.

IZZI/BEACHLER

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lovely... advisory for blowing snow and predicted temps -8°- -18° tonight. +1° here right now.

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
828 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014

ILZ003>006-008-010>012-019>021-032-031030-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0013.140103T2200Z-140104T1500Z/
/O.CON.KLOT.WC.Y.0001.140103T0300Z-140103T1600Z/
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-LA SALLE-
KENDALL-GRUNDY-LIVINGSTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...
WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...
MORRIS...PONTIAC
828 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY.

FOR THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY...

* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...8 BELOW TO 18 BELOW ZERO.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW...

* BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH BLIZZARD LIKE
CONDITIONS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. THIS WILL CREATE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES
REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES...MAINLY IN OPEN AND RURAL AREAS.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...