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January 2014 General Discussion


Powerball

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It's been sort of a strange roller coaster ride in regards to temps here lately it seems.  As we approach midnight tonight temps are still hovering around 38.  We dip below zero again tomorrow night, and barely make it above zero during the day on Tue lol. 

 

Started the day with around 7" of snow on the ground, with the top layer being pristine/new snowfall.  Lost about 2" of that today/tonight, and it already has that dated look to it.  Luckily a weak clipper will refresh it again tomorrow night.  :snowing:

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Apparently 44mph was the peak gust at DTW today. I still stick to my guns I had some 50mph gusts.

 

This is a pic from a 2nd story window to show what the wind was doing...and this is in a non-open suburban neighborhood. Driving in more open areas today some of the right lanes were almost impassable because the old rockhard snowbanks acted as a fence and the snow drifted up against them covering half the right lane in drift. And this is not freshly fallen snow.

 

3773-800.jpg

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
854 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014 /954 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014/

..WINTER STATS UP TO THIS POINT

THE 2013-2014 WINTER CONTINUES TO IMPRESS...NOT ONLY WITH FREQUENT
COLD BUT ALSO IN TERMS OF FREQUENCY AND AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL. BELOW
ARE SOME WAYS TO QUANTIFY THE WINTER SNOWFALL THUS FAR.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
CHICAGO

THE 2.4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY JANUARY 18TH OFFICIALLY
PUSHED CHICAGO OVER ITS NORMAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL OF 36.7 INCHES.
ONLY SIX OTHER TIMES HAS 36.7 INCHES BEEN BREACHED THIS EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

HERE IS A LIST OF THE TOP SEASONAL SNOWFALLS THROUGH JANUARY 19TH:

RANK WINTER SNOWFALL SNOWFALL
SEASON THRU JAN 18 AFTER JAN 18
-----------------------------------------------
1. 1978-1979 66.2 IN. 23.5 IN.
2. 1951-1952 52.1 IN. 13.0 IN.
3. 1977-1978 42.5 IN. 39.8 IN.
1917-1918 42.5 IN. 21.6 IN.
5. 2008-2009 41.5 IN. 11.2 IN.
6. 2013-2014 38.9 IN. ??.?
7. 1961-1962 37.2 IN. 21.7 IN.
8. 1973-1974 35.7 IN. 22.6 IN.
9. 1969-1970 34.9 IN. 42.1 IN.
10. 1950-1951 34.2 IN. 20.6 IN.
11. 1975-1976 33.1 IN. 10.2 IN.

NOTICE THAT OF THE OTHER TOP TEN SNOWIEST SEASONS UP TO THIS
POINT...THE MAJORITY OF THEM (FIVE) ENDED UP WITH SNOWFALL THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEASON VERY NEAR THE 20.3 INCH AVERAGE.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THESE SEASONS RANGED FROM
10.2 INCHES 1975-76 SEASON UP TO 42.1 INCHES DURING THE 1969-70
WINTER. IN ALL...THERE WERE 3 SEASONS THAT FEATURED BELOW AVERAGE
SNOWFALL BEYOND THIS DATE AND 2 THAT WERE MARKEDLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THE REMAINDER OF THE SEASON.

------------------------------------------------------------------

ROCKFORD

MONDAY JANUARY 20TH WILL BE THE 31ST CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH 2 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN ROCKFORD...WHICH IS THE LONGEST
SUCH STREAK IN ROCKFORD SINCE 37 DAYS BACK IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY
2011. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECASTS...THAT 2011 BENCHMARK IS ALMOST
CERTAIN TO BE BROKEN...WHICH WILL MAKE THIS THE LONGEST STREAK
SINCE THE 1993-1994 WINTER. NO BIG PATTERN CHANGES APPEAR TO BE
ON THE HORIZON SO THIS CURRENT STRETCH STANDS A CHANCE TO MAKE A
RUN AT BECOMING ONE OF THE LONGEST STREAKS OF 2 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND EVER IN ROCKFORD.

HERE IS A RUNDOWN OF THE LONGEST STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH 2
OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN ROCKFORD...

RANK # OF DAYS END OF STREAK
1) 107 03/18/1979
2) 97 03/18/1962
3) 89 03/18/1978
4) 59 02/11/1984
5) 56 02/01/1970
6) 53 02/22/1985
7) 50 02/19/1982
8) 48 02/17/1951
9) 47 03/27/1960
10) 45 02/19/1994
11) 43 02/10/1976
43 02/15/1971
13) 40 02/11/1977
14) 39 01/18/1986
39 02/26/1959
16) 37 02/17/2011

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

23) 31 THROUGH 01/20/2014 BUT STILL GOING

 

526852_644658622257842_1457395446_n.jpg

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Can you honestly imagine if this forecast came true? 67 cm of snow on February 2. :weenie:  :lol:

 

http://www.myforecast.com/bin/expanded_forecast_15day.m?city=54216&metric=true

 

  

GFS now showing 40" in less than 24 hours   :weenie:

 

lol you guys are setting yourselves up for some serious disappointment if you believe in a two-week snowfall forecast. Is this even worth discussing?

 

Pretty solid 7-day forecast if you like cold around here:

 

bfdsk.png

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lol you guys are setting yourselves up for some serious disappointment if you believe in a two-week snowfall forecast. Is this even worth discussing?

 

 

Yeah I'm definitely sold on it  :facepalm:

 

Three runs in a row of outrageous snow fall amounts is worth mentioning for sh*ts and giggles, unless you'd rather discuss the eternal overcast + below normal temperatures.... :sleepy: It's insulting to insinuate that we would buy snowfall amounts like that 13 days out.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

854 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014 /954 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014/

..WINTER STATS UP TO THIS POINT

THE 2013-2014 WINTER CONTINUES TO IMPRESS...NOT ONLY WITH FREQUENT

COLD BUT ALSO IN TERMS OF FREQUENCY AND AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL. BELOW

ARE SOME WAYS TO QUANTIFY THE WINTER SNOWFALL THUS FAR.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO

THE 2.4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY JANUARY 18TH OFFICIALLY

PUSHED CHICAGO OVER ITS NORMAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL OF 36.7 INCHES.

ONLY SIX OTHER TIMES HAS 36.7 INCHES BEEN BREACHED THIS EARLY IN

THE SEASON.

HERE IS A LIST OF THE TOP SEASONAL SNOWFALLS THROUGH JANUARY 19TH:

RANK WINTER SNOWFALL SNOWFALL

SEASON THRU JAN 18 AFTER JAN 18

-----------------------------------------------

1. 1978-1979 66.2 IN. 23.5 IN.

2. 1951-1952 52.1 IN. 13.0 IN.

3. 1977-1978 42.5 IN. 39.8 IN.

1917-1918 42.5 IN. 21.6 IN.

5. 2008-2009 41.5 IN. 11.2 IN.

6. 2013-2014 38.9 IN. ??.?

7. 1961-1962 37.2 IN. 21.7 IN.

8. 1973-1974 35.7 IN. 22.6 IN.

9. 1969-1970 34.9 IN. 42.1 IN.

10. 1950-1951 34.2 IN. 20.6 IN.

11. 1975-1976 33.1 IN. 10.2 IN.

NOTICE THAT OF THE OTHER TOP TEN SNOWIEST SEASONS UP TO THIS

POINT...THE MAJORITY OF THEM (FIVE) ENDED UP WITH SNOWFALL THE

REMAINDER OF THE SEASON VERY NEAR THE 20.3 INCH AVERAGE.

ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THESE SEASONS RANGED FROM

10.2 INCHES 1975-76 SEASON UP TO 42.1 INCHES DURING THE 1969-70

WINTER. IN ALL...THERE WERE 3 SEASONS THAT FEATURED BELOW AVERAGE

SNOWFALL BEYOND THIS DATE AND 2 THAT WERE MARKEDLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE REMAINDER OF THE SEASON.

------------------------------------------------------------------

ROCKFORD

MONDAY JANUARY 20TH WILL BE THE 31ST CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH 2 OR MORE

INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN ROCKFORD...WHICH IS THE LONGEST

SUCH STREAK IN ROCKFORD SINCE 37 DAYS BACK IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY

2011. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECASTS...THAT 2011 BENCHMARK IS ALMOST

CERTAIN TO BE BROKEN...WHICH WILL MAKE THIS THE LONGEST STREAK

SINCE THE 1993-1994 WINTER. NO BIG PATTERN CHANGES APPEAR TO BE

ON THE HORIZON SO THIS CURRENT STRETCH STANDS A CHANCE TO MAKE A

RUN AT BECOMING ONE OF THE LONGEST STREAKS OF 2 OR MORE INCHES OF

SNOW ON THE GROUND EVER IN ROCKFORD.

HERE IS A RUNDOWN OF THE LONGEST STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH 2

OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN ROCKFORD...

RANK # OF DAYS END OF STREAK

1) 107 03/18/1979

2) 97 03/18/1962

3) 89 03/18/1978

4) 59 02/11/1984

5) 56 02/01/1970

6) 53 02/22/1985

7) 50 02/19/1982

8) 48 02/17/1951

9) 47 03/27/1960

10) 45 02/19/1994

11) 43 02/10/1976

43 02/15/1971

13) 40 02/11/1977

14) 39 01/18/1986

39 02/26/1959

16) 37 02/17/2011

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

23) 31 THROUGH 01/20/2014 BUT STILL GOING

 

526852_644658622257842_1457395446_n.jpg

 

Wow, end of Dec/beginning of January rocked for you. I think I saw ~7" total for that period?

Wow, January 1979 Blizzard ROCKED!

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lol you guys are setting yourselves up for some serious disappointment if you believe in a two-week snowfall forecast. Is this even worth discussing?

 

Pretty solid 7-day forecast if you like cold around here:

 

bfdsk.png

I never said I believed it. It was meant as a joke. The Myforecast site, in general, is a joke.

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Thought this was worth sharing, some exerpts from BUF AFD regarding anomalous weather:

 

AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING ULTRA REPETITIVE...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED +PNA   
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD.   
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG (+3 STD) AND MASSIVE H5 RIDGE EXTENDING FROM   
CALIFORNIA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS THE POLE TO THE EASTERN   
HEMISPHERE
WILL COMBINE WITH A DEEP DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE   
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT TO KEEP A CONSTANT FEED OF ARCTIC AIR  
FLOWING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

 

MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A VERY IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH   
FROM THE HIGH LATITUDES OF CANADA AND MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE   
U.S. PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE HULK WILL FLIRT WITH 1050MB READINGS   
IN THE PROCESS. IN RELATION TO A 30 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID   
JANUARY...THIS EXTREME MAX HIGH PRESSURE EQUATES TO A ONE IN MORE   
THAN A 30 YEAR OCCURRENCE.
   
 

THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT READINGS THAT WILL AVERAGE MORE   
THAN 15 DEG F BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THAT THIS IS  
CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE COLDEST TIME OF YEAR MAKES THIS STRETCH EVEN   
MORE IMPRESSIVE. TO PUT IT INTO SOME PERSPECTIVE...THIS WOULD BE   
ANALOGOUS TO A FOUR DAY STRETCH OF MID JULY HEAT FEATURING   
CONSECUTIVE DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.

 

THE UBER SFC HIGH ADDRESSED EARLIER IN THIS SECTION WILL BE CENTERED   
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IS FORECAST TO NOSE UP   
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.

 

 Also, lol @ uber surface high.

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DTX blurb on approaching January snowfall record

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=99811&source=0

 

 

Top 10 snowiest Januaries at Detroit - Since 1881

01.) 29.6" - 1978

02.) 27.8" - 2014 thru 1/21

03.) 27.3" - 1999

04.) 26.9" - 2005

05.) 25.2" - 2009

06.) 24.0" - 1987

07.) 23.1" - 1893

08.) 22.2" - 1910

09.) 22.1" - 1929

10.) 21.8" - 1881

10.) 21.8" - 1914

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Looks like winter has been kind to almost all Northern Michigan this year, was in Traverse City over the weekend as was really surprised to see how they had.

 

At this point I wouldn't mind a little break especially with the cold. With all the snow it is getting excessively harder to see pulling out of our driveway, no where else to put the piles except higher. Although I it is looking increasing likely that the cold will finally shut down the LES guns, be interesting to see how much open water is left after this latest PV blast.

My family would love to see a break.  A $1,000. propane bill for our son and our upcoming fuel oil fill is going to hurt..  The local animals are hurting too and won't make it without help.  I'd move if I could.  Mc in the "banana belt". :axe:

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January '14 is now the 4th snowiest on record for Chicago.

 

Snowiest Januarys:

1. 42.5" - 1918

2. 40.4" - 1979

3. 32.2" - 1978

4. 29.7" - 2014

5. 29.6" - 1999

6. 28.9" - 1967

7. 27.8" - 2005

8. 26.7" - 1886

9. 24.7" - 1939

10. 21.5" - 2009

 

How many inches (about) was ORD shorted on that one snowfall at the beginning of the month at ORD?  (Or was that the very end of December?  I forget now)

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