Amped Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Looks like we have something resembling a 50/50 low now for the 1/3 event. The split PV look still has me intrigued with that one, as the right orientation of those PVs could allow for something halfway decent. The GFS shows the 50/50 retreating so rapidly it's almost useless. Surprising considering it's 492dm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I'd prefer to see a miller b screwjob over the euro desert. Gfs loves this threat. Verbatim we cry tears of despair while hearing a distant cry of joy from sne. Luckily nothing is resolved. Should be a fun dozen upcoming solutions wirh different results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 well, that went horribly wrong. Miller B'd GFS trolling us Marginal CAD set-up for 2/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 If the vort exists in reality we are very much in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Yep that run was pretty ugly for us. Even with a 1032mb High over Quebec, it does jack for us. well, that went horribly wrong. Miller B'd GFS trolling us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Bad model trends the last 24 hours....i think our best hope given the pattern is some sort of weak pulse or wave that gives us 0.5 - 1".....perhaps more than 1 event if we are lucky...I have never seen a late developer pop up and synchronize and give us anything of meaning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Bad model trends the last 24 hours....i think our best hope given the pattern is some sort of weak pulse or wave that gives us 0.5 - 1".....perhaps more than 1 event if we are lucky...I have never seen a late developer pop up and synchronize and give us anything of meaning... I just compared the h5 loops from the last 3 runs. 0z has a lobe splitting off the pv in progressive flow and then re-establishes west of hudson at a critical time. Yes, not a good trend but too far out to get hung up on. Euro's cold and dry run will be followed up with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 tracking 1/2 inch of snow is great if you are living in Jacksonville, Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The fact that Matt is posting in PR during winter tells me the current pattern sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Lol how did the jan 3 storm end up being a rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Even I can answer that.... Let me take a wild guess. It's to warm?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Euro does show a monster storm day 8-10. It implies light rain changing to heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Good thing weather is easy to predict so far in advance that all these storms and patterns will absolutely verify. We will get a sneaky storm that will make most happy before the winter is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Gfs shouldn't really be cutting this given the pattern. Three is actually some NAO going on and a 50 59 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Good thing weather is easy to predict so far in advance that all these storms and patterns will absolutely verify. We will get a sneaky storm that will make most happy before the winter is done Yep, the euro ensembles still show a lot of storms giving some snow in the jan 2-3 time range. While we normally get screwed in DC so the rainy GFS may be right, it is far from over. In longer term, I don't like where the euro ens mean takes the vortex nor do I like the fact that the NAO refuses to go negative. I don't see out probability being much different than climo for the 7 day period starting on the 1st or second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Euro does show a monster storm day 8-10. It implies light rain changing to heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Looks after initial cold shot to start 2014, trough forms in the West with ridging in the East...not a good look for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Gfs shouldn't really be cutting this given the pattern. Three is actually some NAO going on and a 50 59 low That's the same thing I said when I saw that map....but yet..guess what happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 That's the same thing I said when I saw that map....but yet..guess what happens... yep I agree but gfs out to day 7-8 isn't very accurate, im sure it will change a few times by the time it actually gets here. although I don't see a GLC , I also don't see a so called MONSTER that some people are calling it 8 days out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 That's the same thing I said when I saw that map....but yet..guess what happens... It's a meteorological impossibility that this thing cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 This is why you shouldn't yet worry much about any single model run concerning the 2nd or 3rd. The 06Z plume diagram fro Sterling says it all, some have the rain, some a suppressed look and a couple have decent snows. My guy feeling is that we get some precip from the event but that's just a wag. I still think a strong wet system is much more likely to be rain than snow but this far in advance all I'd say is a chance of precipitation and would not venture a type. A flatter weaker system is that just get the precip north to us is probably what we snow lovers want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 It's a meteorological impossibility that this thing cuts. I wouldn't say that. all you have to do is have a strong enough northern stream and the low is gonna try to go to our north initially, maybe to the OH valley rather than the lakes but it still could happen especially if the temporary low just north of nova scotia moves east a bit. The good news is that a track north of us is not yet a lock. Heck, things could stay suppressed enough on the 2-3 event to stay to our south and miss us completely like last night's euro did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Gfs shouldn't really be cutting this given the pattern. Three is actually some NAO going on and a 50 59 low Why wouldn't it tend to cut with that vortex and the confluence trucking eastward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I still think a strong wet system is much more likely to be rain than snow but this far in advance all I'd say is a chance of precipitation and would not venture a type. A flatter weaker system is that just get the precip north to us is probably what we snow lovers want. Couldn't agree more, Wes. This statement has applied for the last month. Without a real block or lucky timed 50/50 there is nowhere else a wound up storm can go. I've been rooting for a flatter wave or more dig to keep the ns low from either dominating or pulling. 6z gefs actually shows more members with this solution than a cutter or miller B screwjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 One discouraging thing about the pattern is we can't get rid of the vortex near hudson bay. any time it gets displaced to the east like on the 147 GFS another vortex start digging southward to replace it. Having a low near hudson bay makes it easy to pop a low in the great lakes to mess things up sort of like will be happening this sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Couldn't agree more, Wes. This statement has applied for the last month. Without a real block or lucky timed 50/50 there is nowhere else a wound up storm can go. I've been rooting for a flatter wave or more dig to keep the ns low from either dominating or pulling. 6z gefs actually shows more members with this solution than a cutter or miller B screwjob. Based on the weatherbell products displaying the various ens members forecasts of snow, a number of members also must have a track to our south but far enough north to yield some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Based on the weatherbell products displaying the various ens members forecasts of snow, a number of members also must have a track to our south but far enough north to yield some precip. yes, and they aren't wound up either. More of a sheared presentation with overunning out in front along the boundary. Thicknesses look ok. IMO- this would be our best case for any shot of all snow and also have it be measurable. Most members that have the look are the 1-3/2-4 variety but there are a couple sweet ones of course. Pretty strong hp to the N and a possible 50/50. Down the road appears to be gaining some confidence in a regression of the pv towards hudson/west with rPna digging. Hardly unexpected with the atlantic decidedly against us. However, good signal for an epo reload so it would likely be transient and cold diving into the plains west before bleeding east. Very speculative but it's what I'm seeing right now and I'm fine with it. I never had a lot of faith in sustained blocking in early Jan. Even with the tease history told me that it was premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 yes, and they aren't wound up either. More of a sheared presentation with overunning out in front along the boundary. Thicknesses look ok. IMO- this would be our best case for any shot of all snow and also have it be measurable. Most members that have the look are the 1-3/2-4 variety but there are a couple sweet ones of course. Pretty strong hp to the N and a possible 50/50. Down the road appears to be gaining some confidence in a regression of the pv towards hudson/west with rPna digging. Hardly unexpected with the atlantic decidedly against us. However, good signal for an epo reload so it would likely be transient and cold diving into the plains west before bleeding east. Very speculative but it's what I'm seeing right now and I'm fine with it. I never had a lot of faith in sustained blocking in early Jan. Even with the tease history told me that it was premature. Despite the bad look of today's D+11 analogs, they still spit out three 1 inch or greater snows at DCA. Glad I'm not writing anything until early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 yes, and they aren't wound up either. More of a sheared presentation with overunning out in front along the boundary. Thicknesses look ok. IMO- this would be our best case for any shot of all snow and also have it be measurable. Most members that have the look are the 1-3/2-4 variety but there are a couple sweet ones of course. Pretty strong hp to the N and a possible 50/50. Down the road appears to be gaining some confidence in a regression of the pv towards hudson/west with rPna digging. Hardly unexpected with the atlantic decidedly against us. However, good signal for an epo reload so it would likely be transient and cold diving into the plains west before bleeding east. Very speculative but it's what I'm seeing right now and I'm fine with it. I never had a lot of faith in sustained blocking in early Jan. Even with the tease history told me that it was premature. Despite the bad look of today's D+11 analogs, they still spit out three 1 inch or greater snows at DCA. Glad I'm not writing anything until early next week. My WAG, is we will have to deal with a vortex in somewhat bad position the rest of the winter. It is probably the most stable feature we have seen. It will keep getting replaced. So we are going to have to figure out ways to get snow despite this impediment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 My WAG, is we will have to deal with a vortex in somewhat bad position the rest of the winter. It is probably the most stable feature we have seen. It will keep getting replaced. So we are going to have to figure out ways to get snow despite this impediment. Sound logic. And it's fine really. It's been some years now without the really cold stuff on our side. Progressive flow will offer periods of good and bad without getting locked into either for very long. We've been beating the variability drum for months leading into the winter and that part is playing out. I think expectations got skewed for some when we got teased with a better look at high latitudes. Yea, it's what we all want but early Jan is premature. Maybe later. Take what we can get for now and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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