Ji Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 euro is pretty dry with the sunday storm.....like an inch less than the GFS/NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 anything through 240 or the usual piece of sht euro run? This one is pretty bad. It's as bad as last nights but doesn't include precip this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Ava on WBAL just talking about Sundays rain. Paraphrasing--said for now a rain event, but some things need to be worked out. Possibility of cold air getting pulled in quicker that changes us to snow. Anyone buying that? Think I'm selling... JB hinted at that scenario in his video this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 anything through 240 or the usual piece of sht euro run? usual..I am kind of with you in terms of tracking...I like tracking storms...little pulses and pieces of energy, I like when they happen, but I try (often unsuccessfully) not to invest myself into random small events...even though it will be rain, I am still encouraged that something is coming out of the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 JB hinted at that scenario in his video this morning. i think more likely it has as chance to be one of those nonevents where Hagerstown and Martinsburg are under a WWA for some ice at the beginning, that never verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Euro ensembles are a little more on board with the GFS scenario of random light snow on 1/2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The jma has a big gulf low at 192.....it also has a big lakes low at the same time so there's that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 GFS has vort energy passing to our south on 12/31, and with the trend toward NW and juicier this year, I'll be watching how this evolves. We have plenty of cold in place for that one at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 GFS has vort energy passing to our south on 12/31, and with the trend toward NW and juicier this year, I'll be watching how this evolves. We have plenty of cold in place for that one at least. I agree, that has potential as does New Years night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 GFS has vort energy passing to our south on 12/31, and with the trend toward NW and juicier this year, I'll be watching how this evolves. We have plenty of cold in place for that one at least. I was thinking the first storm screwed things up. However it really doesn't, the strong PV over the eastern lakes is whats suppressing this. The first storm does not push the front that far SE. Hopefully we can at least get some flurries from the upper toff passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I took the top correlative analog dates for today's GFS/GEFS/Can ENS/Euro/Euro Ens for days 11-15 and created the below.... 6 out of the 11 dates had measurable snow in the 5 day period, but the events averaged around 1"...only one event over 2" (2.3") 500mb Anomaly Surface temp anomaly in C (0.5 contours) - so we are around -5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Great info, thanks for the work Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Some of the 18z GFS individuals @ 180 still showing a massive storm for some, its only a few ensembles, but the possibility, while unlikely attm, is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Great info, thanks for the work Matt. sure..I mean..what it tells us is that for January 5-9, we will probably be colder than normal....and we probably have a 50-50 chance of a 0.1"+ event, and a 10% chance of a 2"+ event for DC......that is at least what the composite tells us, and that is probably reasonable to predict at this point with that pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 It would be a relief to have the EURO at least tease us with something soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 It would be a relief to have the EURO at least tease us with something soon. That is a pretty low bar since the last 2 runs combined have given us 0.00" QPF as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Op runs are going to jump like grasshoppers with ns vorts driving precip chances. Under 5 day leads is where my head is at for now. Amplified pattern and fast flow is rough at med-long leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Op runs are going to jump like grasshoppers with ns vorts driving precip chances. Under 5 day leads is where my head is at for now. Amplified pattern and fast flow is rough at med-long leads. From the looks of it our main precip producer for the next 5 days isn't from the ns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 sure..I mean..what it tells us is that for January 5-9, we will probably be colder than normal....and we probably have a 50-50 chance of a 0.1"+ event, and a 10% chance of a 2"+ event for DC......that is at least what the composite tells us, and that is probably reasonable to predict at this point with that pattern I really hope for you guys sake, that you get at least one 2" storm by Jan 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 From the looks of it our main precip producer for the next 5 days isn't from the ns. 100% chance of 100% rain is not precip between Dec 1 and Mar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 100% chance of 100% rain is not precip between Dec 1 and Mar 1 A low zipping through ga, sc, nc, and eastern va counts a lot. Let's do that about 10 times between now and March 15 and see what the results are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 A low zipping through ga, sc, nc, and eastern va counts a lot. Let's do that about 10 times between now and March 15 and see what the results are. I predict 8" of grass and 3 lawn rows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Matt nice work, I don't like seeing the weak positive anomaly over the southeast or the below normal heights over Iceland makes it hard to get much more than a light event if the ens means are close to being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I hate to even say this....but I mean..what else have we got? The NAM shows that shortwave behind SUnday's storm looking more threatening than the GFS has it. WHo knows...maybe DT is on to something. Or I'm just desperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I hate to even say this....but I mean..what else have we got? The NAM shows that shortwave behind SUnday's storm looking more threatening than the GFS has it. WHo knows...maybe DT is on to something. Or I'm just desperate. Some of the last gfs ens turned that into a sig storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GFS 114 hrs shows a much stronger shortwave for the 1/3 storm compared to 18z. Probably going to show something this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Some of the last gfs ens turned that into a sig storm Something to watch I guess. Times are gettin' lean 'round here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 And Bleh by 156, looks like ice to rain. H5 troff axis isn't moving out of Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Looks like we have something resembling a 50/50 low now for the 1/3 event. The split PV look still has me intrigued with that one, as the right orientation of those PVs could allow for something halfway decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 well, that went horribly wrong. Miller B'd GFS trolling us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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