nflwxman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Clippers rule the day on the 0z GFS. However, the Day 8-9 period continues to be interesting if the southern stream is not squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Which low you talking about Bob? The one that went from Lake Ontario to northern Michigan to central Illinois on the last three runs? Low pressure in general has been forecast around the gl region. Specific location doesnt matter as long as it is nw of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Rain, lots, still on tap for Sunday. Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 the 10z operational Euro is the worst run I have ever seen....i dont think ensembles agree though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 ...at least we're the cold side of the rain. lol, we get dunked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 the 10z operational Euro is the worst run I have ever seen....i dont think ensembles agree though What did the 11z run show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 0z ensemble mean is the best run I've seen yet. -nao with heights pushing over baffin and the pv is east of hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 0z ensemble mean is the best run I've seen yet. -nao with heights pushing over baffin and the pv is east of hudson. We still need lower heights south of Nova Scotia on the euro ens and the GEFS ensembles keep the positive NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 We still need lower heights south of Nova Scotia on the euro ens and the GEFS ensembles keep the positive NAO. Control run shows that. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Control run shows that. Lol It scored a major win a couple years ago. If it was right on its own before it will be again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 GFS is showing suppression with the early January period. Which is what I was worried about a few days ago. Could be tough to get moisture to us with the PV that far south. It is in the long range and obviously details will completely change. But I still think that solution is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 GFS is showing suppression with the early January period. Which is what I was worried about a few days ago. Could be tough to get moisture to us with the PV that far south. It is in the long range and obviously details will completely change. But I still think that solution is on the table. Of course a suppressed solution is possible. I found it interesting that a number of euro ensemble members forecast some snow in the Jan 1-3 time range, generally light amounts but enough to keep some interest in that time range despite the look on the operational models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 vort coming out of the rockies nye looking better organized. Nothing but very cold hp to the north. 1/1 - 1/3 period remains an opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 vort coming out of the rockies nye looking better organized. Nothing but very cold hp to the north. 1/1 - 1/3 period remains an opportunity. We get a dusting on the GFS from the second arctic shot on the 2nd. The vort gets strung out by 159 hrs but we are cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 We get a dusting on the GFS from the second arctic shot on the 2nd. The vort gets strung out by 159 hrs but we are cold Yea, the pv is elongated to the n and keeps the flow pretty flat in front. Could sharpen or shear to oblivion. At least there is consistency with a piece of energy associated with the front and not just a pixie dust fropa. Some snow in that period is gaining some consensus. Maybe the stars align and it digs a bit with weak surface reflection. SS is remaining disconnected of late. ETA: sharpens enough to pop a weak low off the coast but it's too late verbatim. Ok run in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Yea, the pv is elongated to the n and keeps the flow pretty flat in front. Could sharpen or shear to oblivion. At least there is consistency with a piece of energy associated with the front and not just a pixie dust fropa. Some snow in that period is gaining some consensus. Maybe the stars align and it digs a bit with weak surface reflection. SS is remaining disconnected of late. ETA: sharpens enough to pop a weak low off the coast but it's too late verbatim. Ok run in my book. I still like the 30-40% chance of an inch during that week. I like seeing it cold and would love to see one really cold day with temps staying in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Of course a suppressed solution is possible. I found it interesting that a number of euro ensemble members forecast some snow in the Jan 1-3 time range, generally light amounts but enough to keep some interest in that time range despite the look on the operational models. the 1/1-3 solution isn't the worst...kind of reminds me of 2/1-2/2013.....just snow off and on for 48-72 hours with some pulses...0.5" here and there..at least would feel wintry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I still like the 30-40% chance of an inch during that week. I like seeing it cold and would love to see one really cold day with temps staying in the 20s. Yea, no honkin signal. That's for sure. I like your odds. Especially with a ns vort at this kind of lead. Room for improvement to a modest event with cold temps and nothing else to track so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 the 1/1-3 solution isn't the worst...kind of reminds me of 2/1-2/2013.....just snow off and on for 48-72 hours with some pulses...0.5" here and there..at least would feel wintry Yeah, the 186 hour is not far away from a 1-3 type solution if the vort could sharpen a little more and get a little more help from the north right at the last minute. Right now I'd take the solution as the snow would be a moral victory and the cold looks cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Man, a true -nao would go a long ways with the second storm in line. Possible CAD mess verbatim but my guess is that storm will disappear, reappear, and change tracks somewhere around 40 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 DT issuing some ALEETS about the 1/3 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Ava on WBAL just talking about Sundays rain. Paraphrasing--said for now a rain event, but some things need to be worked out. Possibility of cold air getting pulled in quicker that changes us to snow. Anyone buying that? Think I'm selling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32º Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I know it is out in dream land but 0Z GFS looks interesting on the 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 12z gefs shows some support for a bigger system in the 1/2 - 1/4 timeframe. A decent # of members appear to phase the vort with some ss energy and amp it up a bit. Track varies of course but I suppose ruling out a coastal completely is a mistake. I'm sure DT will be bringing this up with his full writeup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 12z gefs shows some support for a bigger system in the 1/2 - 1/4 timeframe. A decent # of members appear to phase the vort with some ss energy and amp it up a bit. Track varies of course but I suppose ruling out a coastal completely is a mistake. I'm sure DT will be bringing this up with his full writeup. i would pretty much ignore anything that shows us getting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 EURO looks high and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Euro has a quick piece of energy from the southwest brush us as it goes out to sea on the 31st. Always have to be suspicious of precip that blossoms out of nowhere....nothing on 1/1-3...dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 EURO looks high and dry And warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 And warm Really? Next Wednesday BWI only gets to the upper 20's on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Euro has a quick piece of energy from the southwest brush us as it goes out to sea on the 31st. Always have to be suspicious of precip that blossoms out of nowhere....nothing on 1/1-3...dry anything through 240 or the usual piece of sht euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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