aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Snow is not happening this winter. It's either cold dry or cold and rain or warm and Rain. Dude...not on Christmas...resume tomorrow ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Not endorsing JI's whining...but he is right...that southwestern s/w just went poof on the last two runs of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Not endorsing JI's whining...but he is right...that southwestern s/w just went poof on the last two runs of the GFSThat ain't all. Check out these two ens shots 24 hours apart for Sunday. If the Euro shows anything close our forecast is going to go from partly cloudy to about 80% rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Dude...not on Christmas...resume tomorrow ok? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Euro GGEM Ukmet have been more consistent with the Dec 30th rain event. GFS was too far E all along assuming the NW solution verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 clipper on 1/1 gets pushed further south..really cold..maybe we can sneak an inch on New Years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 No Terrible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 clipper on 1/1 gets pushed further south..really cold..maybe we can sneak an inch on New Years I saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Terrible... U think we can excuse a bad pattern just because it's Christmas day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 clipper on 1/1 gets pushed further south..really cold..maybe we can sneak an inch on New Years Further south to where Matt? I can't see the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Not a bullish on the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I think we're going to sneak something in nye/nyd timeframe. Gfs was too south for us and the euro took a step towards pushing the clipper below. The big storm after that is a whole lotta who knows but perfect isn't on the table. Pretty cold air around so even a west track would be fun I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Further south to where Matt? I can't see the euro we are still on the southern end...but further south than the GFS....I think it is either/or with this event and the now phantom event on 1/2-3...Canadian still has the 1/2-3 event...but it is a mangled miller B that isn't very good for us....it is a good clipper pattern..maybe it is a better solution in the end than the wetter western low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I think we sneak a minor event in before next week ends. This northern stream solo act is all we've got it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Matt, I think I got my vorts confused. There seems to be a bunch of pieces flying below the pv. We can do well with something modest and cold. It's been a while since we had a pv like this spinning close by. We're gonna get a ton of different looks as the pieces get better resolved. Ns is whacky because the energy is fast in the flow and doesn't technically even exist yet. Model mayhem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I think we sneak a minor event in before next week ends. This northern stream solo act is all we've got it looks like. The stream interaction is too complicated at these leads.We really have no idea how things will shake if/when something from the gulf gets organized. Our default mood is some lame gl low screws it all up because we have plenty of recent history there. But we don't have much history having a nasty pv near hudson lately. That thing has only spoken Russian for quite a few years in a row. I'm cautious and paranoid but encouraged overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The stream interaction is too complicated at these leads.We really have no idea how things will shake if/when something from the gulf gets organized. Our default mood is some lame gl low screws it all up because we have plenty of recent history there. But we don't have much history having a nasty pv near hudson lately. That thing has only spoken Russian for quite a few years in a row. I'm cautious and paranoid but encouraged overall. But a vortex near Hudson bay usually is not a good one for a big event. Look at the big event composites. Only one had that look and it took perfect timing between a southern stream shortwave and the arctic front. As matt notes it's a clipper type pattern. When the northern stream amplifies enough to pull a southern stream impulse northward, the great lakes pressures are likely to be low. We still don't really have the blocking in the right place. Are chances are still around or slightly higher than climo but we're still more likely to get scrooged than get a nice big package with a bow on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The GFS showing the split PV look this evening has me intrigued for the 1/3 storm and it is suppressed and out to sea, which also has me intrigued given the GFS bias. Worth watching as the true PV orientation continues to evolve with each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 We still don't really have the blocking in the right place. Are chances are still around or slightly higher than climo but we're still more likely to get scrooged than get a nice big package with a bow on it. Agreed Wes. I wasn't trying to imply a big event. Just replying to tracker that it isn't just the northern stream.Front end on a miller b or cutter with 2-4 / 3-5 is a big event in comparison to recent years. I like cold Clippers too. Not prolific but can be cold with no ptype issues. I'm not chasing a ghost of a big event right now for the solid reasons you pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I can't get over how the Sunday system keeps changing. I further can't get over my forecast of partly cloudy when the GFS, with nearly complete ensemble support, puts out 3/4 -1" of rain from Sun morning to Mon morning. I guess the whole GFS suite is being ignored. Can't help but wonder what happens if that low in the lakes ends up a half day faster moving out. LOL, one can always dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I can't get over how the Sunday system keeps changing. I further can't get over my forecast of partly cloudy when the GFS, with nearly complete ensemble support, puts out 3/4 -1" of rain from Sun morning to Mon morning. I guess the whole GFS suite is being ignored. Can't help but wonder what happens if that low in the lakes ends up a half day faster moving out. LOL, one can always dream. I think getting the lakes low to move fast enough is a dream but the forecast should reflect rain as the Euro is also quite wet. I think the GSF run while cold and dry is interesting as are its ensembles. A number still show a storm, some snow, some not but something worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Pretty impressive run to run IN-consistency in the models in the long range. I still think there is a chance at something in the first week of January. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I can't get over how the Sunday system keeps changing. I further can't get over my forecast of partly cloudy when the GFS, with nearly complete ensemble support, puts out 3/4 -1" of rain from Sun morning to Mon morning. I guess the whole GFS suite is being ignored. Can't help but wonder what happens if that low in the lakes ends up a half day faster moving out. LOL, one can always dream. it's in a prime zone if it can create its own cold air. my guess is it will figure out how to by the time it gets toward boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 it's in a prime zone if it can create its own cold air. my guess is it will figure out how to by the time it gets toward boston. LOL. I ain't quite that gullible. Nice try though. How many times would we have killed for a low on the coast like that? Can't catch a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 LOL. I ain't quite that gullible. Nice try though. How many times would we have killed for a low on the coast like that? Can't catch a break. it is a great track on the gfs at least. the 500 vort could use a little work but unless we can change the lakes low into a H we're probably cooked. i haven't looked at much but the 18z gfs is pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 it is a great track on the gfs at least. the 500 vort could use a little work but unless we can change the lakes low into a H we're probably cooked. i haven't looked at much but the 18z gfs is pretty meh. If my thing was to track lakes lows, se ridges, and record heat I would be in weather nirvana. One of the things that allows the potential rain to track the coast is the lakes low. If we had a cold high pressing down it would be a fish storm. I don't consider this one a wasted op. It's lucky rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Haha 00z GFS.. Was OTS with Sundays storm 2 days ago. Now it looks like a 1.5" soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Haha 00z GFS.. Was OTS with Sundays storm 2 days ago. Now it looks like a 1.5" soaker.Welcome to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 If my thing was to track lakes lows, se ridges, and record heat I would be in weather nirvana. One of the things that allows the potential rain to track the coast is the lakes low. If we had a cold high pressing down it would be a fish storm. I don't consider this one a wasted op. It's lucky rain. Which low you talking about Bob? The one that went from Lake Ontario to northern Michigan to central Illinois on the last three runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Welcome to the party. It was a little late. Luckily most knew it was off it's rocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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