snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 To supplement what Wes posted earlier here are the top 10 Euro Ensemble analogs for Days 11-15 in order from top to bottom..somewhat of a signal for a snowstorm, and a strong signal for a big departure cold day(s) Snow in 5 day period/Lowest Max 0.1"/28 7.7"/21 4.7"/20 T/18 T/22 T/28 6.6"/37 T/27 0/31 T/28 NOTE - the 6-10 day analogs are not as bullish on either, but there are 2 baby KU's in the bottom half of the sample Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Thanks for the stats matt. Pretty much a lock we get some cold days. Getting snow is never a lock anymore. Was early Jan 03 showing up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Thanks for the stats matt. Pretty much a lock we get some cold days. Getting snow is never a lock anymore. Was early Jan 03 showing up? not on the euro or the euro ens....but I have seen it in the past week or 2 show up here and there...2003 does show up though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 To supplement what Wes posted earlier here are the top 10 Euro Ensemble analogs for Days 11-15 in order from top to bottom..somewhat of a signal for a snowstorm, and a strong signal for a big departure cold day(s) Snow in 5 day period/Lowest Max 0.1"/28 7.7"/21 4.7"/20 T/18 T/22 T/28 6.6"/37 T/27 0/31 T/28 NOTE - the 6-10 day analogs are not as bullish on either, but there are 2 baby KU's in the bottom half of the sample so I guess we should ask JI, do you feel lucky?.....well, do ya' punk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 so I guess we should ask JI, do you feel lucky?.....well, do ya' punk? you should see one of the analog dates on the Euro ens 16-30 day rollover pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 not on the euro or the euro ens....but I have seen it in the past week or 2 show up here and there...2003 does show up though... I've seen Jan 61 pop up a good # of times on cpc d8 and 11+. But like the list you posted, for every good analog there's a blank or trace. I'm kinda bullish for the rest of Jan but realistic. I'd be happy with another 3-4" event. Euro ens means for snow through d10 look a little better each run. I hope we time something. And really hope dc doesn't fight temps....again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 you should see one of the analog dates on the Euro ens 16-30 day rollover pattern idk, those analog dates are tenuous enough in the 10 or 15 day range I can't imagine the verification scores beyond that range and as a middle aged man (extended range at that!) I've been teased enough in my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 you should see one of the analog dates on the Euro ens 16-30 day rollover pattern Hmm, can we start guessing?? Jan 66? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 idk, those analog dates are tenuous enough in the 10 or 15 day range I can't imagine the verification scores beyond that range and as a middle aged man (extended range at that!) I've been teased enough in my life oh yeah...pointless beyond 2 weeks...I think as a group they have been really good so far this winter...Analogs did really well with the 1st week of January..both with the cold shot and with the range of snow possibilities...they striongly argued against a moderate event at DCA...1.9" fit right in the upper end of the analog suite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Hmm, can we start guessing?? Jan 66? it doesnt matter...it is an ensemble mean rolled out to 23 days...useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 oh yeah...pointless beyond 2 weeks...I think as a group they have been really good so far this winter...Analogs did really well with the 1st week of January..both with the cold shot and with the range of snow possibilities...they striongly argued against a moderate event at DCA...1.9" fit right in the upper end of the analog suite... I think it comes down to one simple thing and that's luck regardless of how "great" things look, and I'm not really doubting what the mr models are showing, I95 in the MA will undoubtedly be straddling the line for the rest of the month between a satisfying mod event or 2 or the short end of the stick missing it by "that" much you would think that based purely on statistics we can all get in on at least one 4-6" event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 it doesnt matter...it is an ensemble mean rolled out to 23 days...useless Who was that guy from Pitt area who loved NIN and had a good analog roll forward method? I think best case scenario is cold with a couple 3-6 snowfalls.. maybe even region wide 3-6. (10+ IAD to WIN, with JI still complaining) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 To supplement what Wes posted earlier here are the top 10 Euro Ensemble analogs for Days 11-15 in order from top to bottom..somewhat of a signal for a snowstorm, and a strong signal for a big departure cold day(s) Snow in 5 day period/Lowest Max 0.1"/28 7.7"/21 4.7"/20 T/18 T/22 T/28 6.6"/37 T/27 0/31 T/28 NOTE - the 6-10 day analogs are not as bullish on either, but there are 2 baby KU's in the bottom half of the sample I've been getting interested in the Jan 22-23 timeframe as well...the Euro ensembles even had a pretty strong signal for a coastal at D10-11. Esp for an ensemble mean. I think there is probably going to be another legit arctic shot. You'd have to bet against it being as strong as the one earlier this month (at least for the Plains/OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic) as that was the coldest one in over 15 years for many spots. But the EPO ridge is extremely impressive and all the objective analogs plus general teleconnection combo of a robust +PNA and -EPO support the idea of an additional arctic outbreak(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Who was that guy from Pitt area who loved NIN and had a good analog roll forward method? I think best case scenario is cold with a couple 3-6 snowfalls.. maybe even region wide 3-6. (10+ IAD to WIN, with JI still complaining) If you are referring to the Pittsburgh PA thread, that would have been Hart. He got a job somewhere in TX I believe, possibly with Sarx 2.0 if I remember correctly. Anyways, I don't think he posts anymore, or if he does its under a different name and region. I think the job he got would have been a conflict to continue posting his material for free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowproblem Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Longtime lurker here . . . Curious what some of this board's experienced contributors think of Masco's latest post? You think there's merit to his statement that this pattern "screams cold and snow" and is "locked and loaded?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Snowproblem-to me he and JB always are seeing the big one. They forget the Very Fundamental Rule for DC-it's hard to snow. About 6 out of 7 rt 7 out of 7 synoptyic circumstances All have to come into accord for DC metro to go 6"+ and that probably happens about 1 out of every 15 legitimate opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Longtime lurker here . . . Curious what some of this board's experienced contributors think of Masco's latest post? You think there's merit to his statement that this pattern "screams cold and snow" and is "locked and loaded?" It doesn't scream snow at all imo. But there is a parade of shortwaves (vorts) embedded on the flow. Even over the next 7 days there are 3 decent looks at the upper levels. Any one of them "might" do something but the flow is too fast and there is no blocking downstream to expect any one of them to be a prolific and widespread precip event. The pattern is almost there but missing a key ingredient (blocking) for a parade of storms affecting land. Cold on the averages is likely. The easy spin on the forecast if nothing affects land in the snow dept is saying there were multiple storms off the coast but they all ended up too far east. We appear to be teed up with enough chances to pull something off but there are reasons to doubt getting a good event. The only thing I think is higher confidence from late week through the end of the month is to be below normal with temps. Things look more favorable on paper mid next week on but still flawed. Wait and see and don't expect any potential storm to be modeled well outside of 4 days. Or even shorter. With all this being said I hope masco is balls accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I've been getting interested in the Jan 22-23 timeframe as well...the Euro ensembles even had a pretty strong signal for a coastal at D10-11. Esp for an ensemble mean. I think there is probably going to be another legit arctic shot. You'd have to bet against it being as strong as the one earlier this month (at least for the Plains/OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic) as that was the coldest one in over 15 years for many spots. But the EPO ridge is extremely impressive and all the objective analogs plus general teleconnection combo of a robust +PNA and -EPO support the idea of an additional arctic outbreak(s). GFS has the storm...of course that doesnt mean much, but would be nice to have a legitimate threat to track in the short to medium range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 GFS has the storm...of course that doesnt mean much, but would be nice to have a legitimate threat to track in the short to medium range.. 18z gefs members had an unusual # of coastals clustered in that timeframe. I think 3-4 or so. It was the tight cluster in timing that caught my eye. Usually ind members have storms spread out over days. Euro ens getting more bullish each run. Period of interest for now but who knows. If that doesn't work out the gfs dropped the d15 threat on us...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 18z gefs members had an unusual # of coastals clustered in that timeframe. I think 3-4 or so. It was the tight cluster in timing that caught my eye. Usually ind members have storms spread out over days. Euro ens getting more bullish each run. Period of interest for now but who knows. If that doesn't work out the gfs dropped the d15 threat on us...lol I'm starting to get legitimately interested in the last 10 days of January....i probably need to be slapped.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'm starting to get legitimately interested in the last 10 days of January....i probably need to be slapped.. Nah, all guidance is giving some promise. Looks like we have cold overhead or nearby for the longest stretch so far this season if it works out. And it looks to be active. Dc can score here. Def not high confidence but the stretch holds promise vs a 3 day window. The area is seriously due for a widespread advisory/warning event for goodness sakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Snowproblem-to me he and JB always are seeing the big one. They forget the Very Fundamental Rule for DC-it's hard to snow. About 6 out of 7 rt 7 out of 7 synoptyic circumstances All have to come into accord for DC metro to go 6"+ and that probably happens about 1 out of every 15 legitimate opportunities. The odds are less favorable. One could say it just doesn't snow 6+, at least at DCa, other than rare occasions. Take out 09/10, and in the last 10 years it's snowed one time 6+ at DCA,...Feb 12 2006. One time, outside of a fluky extreme winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Good looking 0z Euro, 0z and 6z GFS runs. Ya'll are slacking on comments and analysis. More of a Miller-B type pattern, but looks very active in general with some southern stream action contributing. Cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Good looking 0z Euro, 0z and 6z GFS runs. Ya'll are slacking on comments and analysis. More of a Miller-B type pattern, but looks very active in general with some southern stream action contributing. Cold too. Maybe They got trapped by a space-time wrinkle and got sucked into a special sub-forum or something. The quiet is actually kind of nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 After reading Mount Holly's AFD today discussing possible upcoming SSW event and its impact on the PV, I went looking at the GFS 10 to 50 mb analysis. Interesting looking at the 10 mb panel on the GFS, seems to show the "polar vortex hit" they mention in the discussion. Looks like a warming event begins around 120 hrs , then another event around hr 276. Can see the area of warming and the PV looks like its beginning to get displaced/stretched @ 120. Be interesting to see if this warming verifies and is significant enough for its effects to ripple further down into the troposphere and at lower latitudes, and maybe we get a -NAO for February. gfs_t10_nh_f120.gif on a related note.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Good looking 0z Euro, 0z and 6z GFS runs. Ya'll are slacking on comments and analysis. More of a Miller-B type pattern, but looks very active in general with some southern stream action contributing. Cold too. Are there any decent storm chances in the medium range to actually track, or just what looks like a good pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Are there any decent storm chances in the medium range to actually track, or just what looks like a good pattern? 0z Euro has 2 storm chances...one this weekend and one the middle of next week. 6z GFS has similar scenarios at both time frames although of course the details differ. 6z GEFS is modest supportive of the weekend event at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Maybe They got trapped by a space-time wrinkle and got sucked into a special sub-forum or something. The quiet is actually kind of nice. People are jaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I must be missing something looking at the GFS.. nothing but a couple very minor events throughout the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I must be missing something looking at the GFS.. nothing but a couple very minor events throughout the run he said GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.