Heisy Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I know there's a lot of pessimism on this forum right now, probably because there hasn't been a model run that shows a big snow in the area, however the pattern looks REALLY, REALLY good from now until at least the end of February. There is no warm up in sight, there will be a plethora of chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I know there's a lot of pessimism on this forum right now, probably because there hasn't been a model run that shows a big snow in the area, however the pattern looks REALLY, REALLY good from now until at least the end of February. There is no warm up in sight, there will be a plethora of chances. You've been optimistic since November and I have 4"...If a pattern with no block or 50-50 is REALLY REALLY good...what would one be with a block/50-50....REALLY REALLY REALLY REALLY good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 This is kinda good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I like my original predictions, though I may be a tad low where you are..what you have so far this season? 11"? I'd say you are halfway there I have about 12 inches. I used leesburg04 profile to track my snow. It looks like we actually may hit normal this year. Joe Bastardi said something interesting about normal a few days ago. He said the weather is hardly ever normal and its hard to have a normal day or normal season. Normals are caused by extremes on both sides. So our winter of 09-10 and the crap ever since if we average out over 6-7 years will probably end up as normal lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 how are we feeling about Feb? 30 inches of snow? Not quite. My call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I have about 12 inches. I used leesburg04 profile to track my snow. It looks like we actually may hit normal this year. Joe Bastardi said something interesting about normal a few days ago. He said the weather is hardly ever normal and its hard to have a normal day or normal season. Normals are caused by extremes on both sides. So our winter of 09-10 and the crap ever since if we average out over 6-7 years will probably end up as normal lol True to a degree.. tho I think too many people think of normal as "on the nose" when it's really probably a range of like 5 deg either side. Plus look at Sept and Oct most of the time around here and tell me there is no normal weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 True to a degree.. tho I think too many people think of normal as "on the nose" when it's really probably a range of like 5 deg either side. Plus look at Sept and Oct most of the time around here and tell me there is no normal weather. we probably get more normal weather than any city in the country....and thats because most of the time, we dont have weather. We have the least exciting weather i think of any area in the eastern US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I know there's a lot of pessimism on this forum right now, probably because there hasn't been a model run that shows a big snow in the area, however the pattern looks REALLY, REALLY good from now until at least the end of February. There is no warm up in sight, there will be a plethora of chances. You mean till the end of January....I think? The pattern looks decent, and there will be ops. But really good? As long as we have a +NAO then we dont have a really great pattern. That is a major missing piece for snow-lovers in the MA, especially those that dont live inland at elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaSnow Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I have about 12 inches. I used leesburg04 profile to track my snow. It looks like we actually may hit normal this year. Joe Bastardi said something interesting about normal a few days ago. He said the weather is hardly ever normal and its hard to have a normal day or normal season. Normals are caused by extremes on both sides. So our winter of 09-10 and the crap ever since if we average out over 6-7 years will probably end up as normal lol And you really needed JB to explain this to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 OH NOES. The superbowl is right in the middle of all that fuzzy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 You mean till the end of January....I think? The pattern looks decent, and there will be ops. But really good? As long as we have a +NAO then we dont have a really great pattern. That is a major missing piece for snow-lovers in the MA, especially those that dont live inland at elevation. Woops, meant to say up to the end of February, and possibly beyond. That is definitely a concern though, If we could get a split flow with the +PNA we could still cash in on a major event, though of course a block would be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I would not make to much fun his winter outlook has been pretty damn good so far. I have 16.5" and it is Jan 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I would not make to much fun his winter outlook has been pretty damn good so far. I have 16.5" and it is Jan 13th. I was just posting an image, chill bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I was just posting an image, chill bro. ah, you're thinking it will verify then. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Don't tease me, bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 GFS says what weekend storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 euro ensembles long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Interesting read from Mount Holly AFD this afternoon: OUR OLD FRIEND, THE POLAR VORTEX CURRENTLY INNORTHWESTERN CANADA IS ABOUT TO TAKE A HIT. AN UPWARD PROPAGATINGROSSBY WAVE IS PREDICTED TO PERTURB AND ELONGATE IT DURING THELONG TERM PERIOD (AND BEYOND). THIS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEND PART OFTHE VORTEX INTO NORTHEASTERN CANADA. COUPLED WITH DISTURBANCESCRESTING THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE, THEY WILL ACT IN TANDEM TOBRING COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN. THE LATESTECMWF STRATOSPHERIC MODEL SOLUTION POLAR VORTEX HIT IS SO INTENSE,THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER THAT STRATOSPHERIC WARMING(STRONGER AROUND 10MB FOR NOW) IS PREDICTED TO START. WHETHER ITCAN WORK ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE TROPOSPHERE AND WHERE IT DOES,WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE`S WEATHER ANDTELECONNECTION PATTERNS INTO FEBRUARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 euro ensembles long range They look really sweet. Kinda bullish n-w of 95 for this weekend. Signs of interest in the 22-23rd range too. Overall NH height patterns d11-15 on both euro/gfs look really similar and pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 They look really sweet. Kinda bullish n-w of 95 for this weekend. Signs of interest in the 22-23rd range too. Overall NH height patterns d11-15 on both euro/gfs look really similar and pretty good personally, I prefer the overall pattern to suck along with the details so I don't get false hopes that "really sweet" patterns convey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 personally, I prefer the overall pattern to suck along with the details so I don't get false hopes that "really sweet" patterns convey It's prob the best pattern of the winter with flaws in the atlantic. Any big coastal will be a miller b of some sort. Split flow possible down the line. Every single event will have screwjob potential. Good timing of features embedded in fast flow will make or break. Don't count on a -nao. Odds of seeing snow in the air during the next 2 weeks is high. How's that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 euro ensembles long rangeEuro control moves Miami to NYC for the Super Bowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It's prob the best pattern of the winter with flaws in the atlantic. Any big coastal will be a miller b of some sort. Split flow possible down the line. Every single event will have screwjob potential. Good timing of features embedded in fast flow will make or break. Don't count on a -nao. Odds of seeing snow in the air during the next 2 weeks is high. How's that? I'll let you know in 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Euro control moves Miami to NYC for the Super Bowl It also had a world-ender, triple phased super bomb a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Euro control moves Miami to NYC for the Super Bowl now you're referencing the Euro control?.....oh the humanity (or lack thereof) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Though I KNOW we have some great peeps in here that I trust, here is a bit more from Mike Masco. Just something to chew on until the next model runs: The new 12z European ensembles (multiple models averaged together to develop one picture--consensus forecast) The storm chances increasing this week is due to a LARGE scale situation that will evolve following the warm we have on Mon and Tue. The details such as totals, track, and intensity are NOT clear since this will be a mid to late week system...something the models barely see.. and most stations will just NOT mention to you yet. Except of course ABC2. My Observations/thoughts are : (not in laymen terms--but close enough--for the overview that you'll have to see me on the news at 11pm) A. A storm will develop along the cold boundary separating warm moist Atlantic air to COLD Canadian air settling into the east coast. B. The European ensembles remain bullish on the trough swinging well south of MD/VA developing a storm to the NE of the vort max..This would be a position off Norfolk, VA. OR is it closer to the coast?? C. The blocking high is positioned over the central Atlantic is STRONG. The key to forecasting is knowing the basics. The basic are.. you cannot drive a storm through a ridge ESP if it's at 588.. So the out to sea solution is just not a thought.. though.. track could be shifted east if the trough goes not go negative.. ( meaning the storm track is positioned ENE and not NNE and up the coast). See you at 11pm on the news with more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I was just posting an image, chill bro. Don't tase me bro. I am always chill. I just thought you were making fun again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Im all in for the weekemd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 After reading Mount Holly's AFD today discussing possible upcoming SSW event and its impact on the PV, I went looking at the GFS 10 to 50 mb analysis. Interesting looking at the 10 mb panel on the GFS, seems to show the "polar vortex hit" they mention in the discussion. Looks like a warming event begins around 120 hrs , then another event around hr 276. Can see the area of warming and the PV looks like its beginning to get displaced/stretched @ 120. Be interesting to see if this warming verifies and is significant enough for its effects to ripple further down into the troposphere and at lower latitudes, and maybe we get a -NAO for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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