HighStakes Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Everyone also cashed in jan. 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Pattern looks really active d10-16. Southern stream looks alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 12z NAM brings the ocean storm a little closer to the coast later in the week. Incremental westward trends in the storm in the next three days and we are in the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/Dcajan.txt non rounded.. bottoming nowish 1/13 43.1 28.4 1/14 43.1 28.4 1/15 43.1 28.3 1/16 43.1 28.3 1/17 43.2 28.3 1/18 43.2 28.3 1/19 43.2 28.3 1/20 43.3 28.3 1/21 43.4 28.4 1/22 43.4 28.4 15th and 16th are coldest on avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 non rounded.. bottoming nowish 1/13 43.1 28.4 1/14 43.1 28.4 1/15 43.1 28.3 1/16 43.1 28.3 1/17 43.2 28.3 1/18 43.2 28.3 1/19 43.2 28.3 1/20 43.3 28.3 1/21 43.4 28.4 1/22 43.4 28.4 We might make a run at another possible sub zero low (except for dca) and sub 20 high (except for dc) before the month is through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 We might make a run at another possible sub zero low (except for dca) and sub 20 high (except for dc) before the month is through. Big cold is usually most centered on climo. If I had to guess, without looking at anything, I'd assume we won't beat (min wise) the prior outbreak without snow or something. Though it wouldn't take much for it to be lengthier... But, we can get some pretty solid cold through Feb 10 or so probably. After that it's usually of diminished intensity or duration at least in recent decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I made a graph. It's interesting how the coldest and warmest are exactly 6 mo apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Big cold is usually most centered on climo. If I had to guess, without looking at anything, I'd assume we won't beat (min wise) the prior outbreak without snow or something. Though it wouldn't take much for it to be lengthier... But, we can get some pretty solid cold through Feb 10 or so probably. After that it's usually of diminished intensity or duration at least in recent decades. I honestly don't really care much about big cold beyond the novelty. Big arctic cold overhead means dry almost every time. If you want to believe guidance, the next overall cold period has some really good legs for duration even without a block. I'm sure there will be moderation days with lows passing to the north before reinforcing shots. Odds seem to increase for ns vorts getting under us as time goes on. Ridge/trough axis placement gets kinda nice (if you believe guidance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I honestly don't really care much about big cold beyond the novelty. Big arctic cold overhead means dry almost every time. If you want to believe guidance, the next overall cold period has some really good legs for duration even without a block. I'm sure there will be moderation days with lows passing to the north before reinforcing shots. Odds seem to increase for ns vorts getting under us as time goes on. Ridge/trough axis placement gets kinda nice (if you believe guidance). Yeah, our biggest cold is usually just dry and windy.. and followed by 2" rainstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Yeah, our biggest cold is usually just dry and windy.. and followed by 2" rainstorms. Usually within 48-72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I suppose the euro and gfs want us to keep an eye on the arctic boundary d8-10. GFS just showed a colder solution with a nice pull off the gulf and some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 okay...so the GFS isnt so dry anymore. Maybe it got tired of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 okay...so the GFS isnt so dry anymore. Maybe it got tired of me It's a non-stop vort train riding down the ridge with an underneath track. 6z gefs members showed this as well. Some with ss/gulf interaction. Early signs of a good period coming up. We can phail door to door but give us enough chances and we might accidentally score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 okay...so the GFS isnt so dry anymore. Maybe it got tired of me persistence can overcome insanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I looked up the temps for DCA from the today's super ens analogs from the GEFS centered on Jan 24.5 of the 10 had a day when the max temp was 25 or lower.7 of the 10 had teens or lower mins, 3 or the 10 had lows in the single digits. The top analog wa sthe coldest at 18 for a max and 8 for min. 4 of the 10 had an inch or more of snow at DCA within 3 days of the centered mean (Jan 24)....another 3 had 0.1 to 0.9. Two of the storms produced over 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I looked up the temps for DCA from the today's super ens analogs from the GEFS centered on Jan 24. 5 of the 10 had a day when the max temp was 25 or lower. 7 of the 10 had teens or lower mins, 3 or the 10 had lows in the single digits. The top analog wa sthe coldest at 18 for a max and 8 for min. 4 of the 10 had an inch or more of snow at DCA within 3 days of the centered mean (Jan 24)....another 3 had 0.1 to 0.9. Two of the storms produced over 4 inches. Sounds like a virtual carbon copy from where we just came from. The only thing I see better this time is the ridge/trough axis across the conus being slightly better. Plenty of time for that to deteriorate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 GEFS says we can't really sleep on any vort embedded in the flow. Some big storms mixed in the members too but not enough to say signal or anything like that. Basically, the active ns flow has some potential. That's about all that can be said. Ji, click through ewall ens members and stare @ #8. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Surprised theres not more chatter about the weekend storm the Euro is advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Surprised theres not more chatter about the weekend storm the Euro is advertising. there is in the other thread but I guess we should discuss it here...I am very confident I will get nothing from it so I don't really care about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Euro also looks to be interesting for Jan 20 but can't see QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Euro also looks to be interesting for Jan 20 but can't see QPF. It's the 22nd...a Hybrid that bombs...gives DC 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Euro also looks to be interesting for Jan 20 but can't see QPF. Verbatim on the euro, the weekend storm and the tues/wed are nearly identical in some important ways. LP to the north screwing up the surface/mid levels and a low track overhead and inland along the coast. Areas 50-100 miles north and west of the cities would get 2 nice hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It's the 22nd...a Hybrid that bombs...gives DC 2-3" Yea, it's like close and far from a viable threat for us. GFS has it too. Could have some legs. Again, h5 looks sweet but other flaws take their toll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Yea, it's like close and far from a viable threat for us. GFS has it too. Could have some legs. Again, h5 looks sweet but other flaws take their toll. It's kind of what I expected this winter and what a +PNA/mediocre atlantic will yield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It's kind of what I expected this winter and what a +PNA/mediocre atlantic will yield GEFS looks pretty good in the lr. Get's rid of the 50/50 block. Atlantic still hostile but the ridge bridge is pretty sweet and it wouldn't be hard to get confluence and a transient 50/50 going in that pattern. The best look so far this winter but still has its challenges. May end up being a fun month overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 how are we feeling about Feb? 30 inches of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 GEFS looks pretty good in the lr. Get's rid of the 50/50 block. Atlantic still hostile but the ridge bridge is pretty sweet and it wouldn't be hard to get confluence and a transient 50/50 going in that pattern. The best look so far this winter but still has its challenges. May end up being a fun month overall.May is always a fun month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 how are we feeling about Feb? 3 inches of snow?Sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 May is always a fun month. I hope there is a ridge in the middle of the country that pushes to hudson bay and we get backdoor cold fronted door to door. Forky will run out of names for fog events and the only tornados in the mw will be on twc repeats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 how are we feeling about Feb? 30 inches of snow? I like my original predictions, though I may be a tad low where you are..what you have so far this season? 11"? I'd say you are halfway there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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