PivotPoint Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 This area is due for a good, snowy end to a January. I for one see some evidence for an opportunistic 1/24-1/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 My limited model reading skills are telling me the end of January isn't looking all that warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 My limited model reading skills are telling me the end of January isn't looking all that warm suddenly, the CFS2 disagrees....that model is worse than even I thought or it's seeing something not on the medium range models recall it had all the east way below normal a week or so ago it still likes FEB though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 suddenly, the CFS2 disagrees....that model is worse than even I thought or it's seeing something not on the medium range models recall it had all the east way below normal a week or so ago it still likes FEB though It's absolute crap and should be used for entertainment purposes only...if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 starting Thursday, Euro ensembles are climo to below through the end of then run (1/27) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 starting Thursday, Euro ensembles are climo to below through the end of then run (1/27) Too bad it looks like a positive NAO throughout that time period. It's better cold then not but we'll still be dealing with not so good systems with lots of low pressure to our north. The low heights voer the southeast late in the period look somewhat interesting but it's not a pattern I'd go wild about.....but you already know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Too bad it looks like a positive NAO throughout that time period. It's better cold then not but we'll still be dealing with not so good systems with lots of low pressure to our north. The low heights voer the southeast late in the period look somewhat interesting but it's not a pattern I'd go wild about.....but you already know that. I dont think we will see a pattern to go wild about this winter. With the QBO so positive it may not be in the cards to get any meaningful HL blocking. At least the pattern thus far has demonstrated the ability to produce at times, so hopefully that continues. I am sure we will see a mega -NAO by March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Nice GFS virgaflurry on 01/15 and then nice GFS snowflurry in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Nice GFS virgaflurry on 01/15 and then nice GFS snowflurry in a week. Happy hour has begun. Lets see what the 18z GFS has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 GFS long range now changed it's mind and wants to reestablish the Alaska ridge and the arctic highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 another qpfless run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It seems we are waiting for the good pattern to reload. How long could this be? I'm going to throw out a wild guess of 3 1/2 weeks, i.e. first or second week of February. It always seems to take forever to break down a Pacific firehose. Plus, ENSO neutral conditions don't seem to break down for months yet. "While ENSO-neutral conditions are the safest bet for the next couple of months, a transition towards El Niño by mid-2014 would not be surprising, if not overdue." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Ian, when is our coldest day at DCA, climowise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It's a clue as to what direction we may go towards the end of the month. -epo rebuild would be fine in my book and would make sense given the last weeks or so. I have no hope for the nao this month. I'm sure we'll warm up for a spell after mlk day. At the very least we seem to be avoiding long duration snow cancels. The last week of the month looks like we could have another really cold period with a couple of arctic shots. A really nice ridge develops across AK pretty early on the european ens mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The last week of the month looks like we could have another really cold period with a couple of arctic shots. A really nice ridge develops across AK pretty early on the european ens mean.Signal has grown strong on both globals. Nice squeeze at the pole with the ak ridge kissing the ridge east of Scandinavia pushing poleward. Pv firmly locked around and east of hudson. Atlantic remains hostile as expected. Pattern would present chances like we saw in mid Dec and early Jan right? I can't tell for sure but I think height patterns in the Pac would support split flow at times as the pna ridge retrogrades to the epo region and makes a run for the pole. I think we'll have better snow chances as the epo reloads than with the pna were seeing now. Looks like the trough axis is going to end up a touch too far east for us but that can easily change. No big storm pattern on the horizon so I suppose we can expect modest events. If they happen. Could easily get some good vort passes in continuously progressive flow. No complaining from me. At least we aren't torching. Guidance suggests we'll have no problem scoring a below norm Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Signal has grown strong on both globals. Nice squeeze at the pole with the ak ridge kissing the ridge east of Scandinavia pushing poleward. Pv firmly locked around and east of hudson. Atlantic remains hostile as expected. Pattern would present chances like we saw in mid Dec and early Jan right? I can't tell for sure but I think height patterns in the Pac would support split flow at times as the pna ridge retrogrades to the epo region and makes a run for the pole. I think we'll have better snow chances as the epo reloads than with the pna were seeing now. Looks like the trough axis is going to end up a touch too far east for us but that can easily change. No big storm pattern on the horizon so I suppose we can expect modest events. If they happen. Could easily get some good vort passes in continuously progressive flow. No complaining from me. At least we aren't torching. Guidance suggests we'll have no problem scoring a below norm Jan. agree....we will have no problem scoring a below norm snowfall for DC in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 agree....we will have no problem scoring a below norm snowfall for DC in January Even if we score an above normal snow Jan it won't happen the way you like it except with a fluke. Might want to pull down the shades now and save yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Even if we score an above normal snow Jan it won't happen the way you like it except with a fluke. Might want to pull down the shades now and save yourself. DCA averages around 6 inches in January right...they are at 1.9 so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 only 3 of the euro 51 members gives us more than 1 inch QPF total in the next 240 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 DCA averages around 6 inches in January right...they are at 1.9 so far? I could easily see another 4 spread out over 2-3 events. A fluke could be a nice wave riding an artic boundary. Also, there is some unusually strong lr guidance at another pv attack. Could get confluence and transient 50/50 going. Just throwing some speculation out there. For all we know we get lucky with the trough axis over the next week or so. Sucks having nothing on op guidance right now but that will probably change and then go proof before boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 lol....if you go back to my weather board history...January is by far and away my biggest complaint month. Seems like we are either really warm in January or cold and dry. I think i complained Jan 2003 when we got zilch between the early January clipper and the storm on Feb 7th. THen we got a PD storm a week later. Jan 2010 was also pretty dry until the end of the month and we got a pretty good February. But those were both moderate El Nino;s.... generally, Januarys suck here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Ian, when is our coldest day at DCA, climowise? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/dca/Dcajan.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 1966, 1987, 1996, 2000, all had big storms. in January, I'm sure I've forgotten a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 1966, 1987, 1996, 2000, all had big storms. in January, I'm sure I've forgotten a few. Jan 2011 lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 61 was a big. There are enough analogs showing up on d8 and d11 to keep things interesting. I would be very surprised to close the month out without another snow event or 2. Pattern going forward is certainly not snow prohibitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 61 was a big. There are enough analogs showing up on d8 and d11 to keep things interesting. I would be very surprised to close the month out without another snow event or 2. Pattern going forward is certainly not snow prohibitive. I wouldn't be. I'm slowly going into pessimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I wouldn't be. I'm slowly going into pessimism. No reason to get all head over heels with a persistent hostile atlantic but we aren't staring down the barrel of a pac zonal disaster or riding high on a se ridge. Not sure pessimism is warranted...yet.... I think I'll be breaking out the laser before the week is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 anything of consequence we get snow-wise in the next couple weeks, imho, will not be seen in the medium range and will likely show up w/in 48 hrs, give or take and it will come from one of those vorts the models have been showing that ends up over-performing to give us 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Jan. 82. Another good Jan. was 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 No reason to get all head over heels with a persistent hostile atlantic but we aren't staring down the barrel of a pac zonal disaster or riding high on a se ridge. Not sure pessimism is warranted...yet.... I think I'll be breaking out the laser before the week is done. in December, we had a continues flow of s/w that would ride over the ridge.....dig in the desert southwest and then head east to provide us storms. Seems like the Southern Stream died. Everyone loves PNA except it can be sometimes really hostile for storms. Seem like we have more activity with an EPO ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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