das Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 next winter = rockin or 97-98 No blockin', no rockin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 GEFS is telling us all to step away from the ledge. Trough east ridge west re-amplifies late. Hints of a -nao too... ETA: I lied about the -nao. Now I know why the angry new guy hates you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Euro ensemble mean precip panels definitely show some members are showing some kind of coastal or overunning saturday/sunday. Moisture from the gulf coast up the apps and ec with precip max off the ma coast. It's light verbatim but it's a mean of 50 members so hardly surprising at long leads. Let's will this one to happen. For those who have wxbell. Check out this link. http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014011012/east/eps_precip_6hr_east_stamp.php Early signs of 61 redux... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Euro ensemble mean precip panels definitely show some members are showing some kind of coastal or overunning saturday/sunday. Moisture from the gulf coast up the apps and ec with precip max off the ma coast. It's light verbatim but it's a mean of 50 members so hardly surprising at long leads. Let's will this one to happen. For those who have wxbell. Check out this link. http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014011012/east/eps_precip_6hr_east_stamp.php Early signs of 61 redux... 50 shades of gray? I think we got that covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 50 shades of gray? I think we got that covered You are slipping too. Control run shows 2 accum snow events through the run. Including 61 redux (just with 1/3rd as much snow). You know it's coming deep down inside. WDI index for a big event is at a high not reached since dinosaurs walked the earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Euro ens improve through the end of the run. Ridging re-establishing further west and ok trough axis here. Stupid north atl ridging is a statue but what can you do. Look like the beginnings of a -epo reload. We may have more fun this month than we think. DC can get 3 1" events and another 1.9" event and approach seasonal climo before Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Euro ens improve through the end of the run. Ridging re-establishing further west and ok trough axis here. Stupid north atl ridging is a statue but what can you do. Look like the beginnings of a -epo reload. We may have more fun this month than we think. DC can get 3 1" events and another 1.9" event and approach seasonal climo before Feb. a really nice run. Like how the red shade starts to build back up into Alaska again towards the end of the run. The NAO is hopeless though....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 a really nice run. Like how the red shade starts to build back up into Alaska again towards the end of the run. The NAO is hopeless though....lol It's a clue as to what direction we may go towards the end of the month. -epo rebuild would be fine in my book and would make sense given the last weeks or so. I have no hope for the nao this month. I'm sure we'll warm up for a spell after mlk day. At the very least we seem to be avoiding long duration snow cancels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Warmth has to be viewed with skepticism at this point. This time from right now through Wed isn't living up to its billing at all. Or at least it looks like it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 17 euro members show some snow over mlk weekend. Only a couple decent hits. Trend worth watching because this is the most bullish they have been so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 18z gefs caving to the euro ens. Not as sweet but who cares. -epo reloading at end of the run. Let's get a split slow/trough east thing going to close the month. Not too much to ask right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 How's the ole pattern looking? Any megalicious blocking, polar vortexices, superduper clippers, or end of the world Greek mythologically named blizzards showing up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 How's the ole pattern looking? Any megalicious blocking, polar vortexices, superduper clippers, or end of the world Greek mythologically named blizzards showing up? Absolutely nothing of interest. We might need to drop the shades for a week or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 How's the ole pattern looking? Any megalicious blocking, polar vortexices, superduper clippers, or end of the world Greek mythologically named blizzards showing up? For us guys living near dc the pattern isn't so good. The euro ensembles in the longer range have a positive NAO look with lower than normal heights over Greenland and higher than normal near 50 50. We have to hope the heights build enough across AK to really give us a cold shot as most shortwave that dig will result in some type of low going to our north...sort of like the event on the 15th. It and similar systems are likely to have boundary layer/surface temp problems even if they pop a new low off the east coast. We just don' have the greenland Baffin bay block that we need. Instead we're in the old thread the needle. The one semi bit of good news is the Euro ens mean is showing hints of a southern stream. If that happens, it would be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Absolutely nothing of interest. We might need to drop the shades for a week or 2. You said it shorter and better than I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Absolutely nothing of interest. We might need to drop the shades for a week or 2. Where did everything go? Yesterday we were talking about MLK chances and late next week. Did the models pull a Lucy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Where did everything go? Yesterday we were talking about MLK chances and late next week. Did the models pull a Lucy? Some of the ensembles still have storms next week but the number has decreased and the operational models don't show much. That could still change but the new foundland/nova scotia above normal heights make it a real struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Where did everything go? Yesterday we were talking about MLK chances and late next week. Did the models pull a Lucy? Thats the nature of this hobby. Bipolar as hell. After the 12z runs, the mood will probably be manic again. Even if the afternoon runs all suck, happy hour coincides with playoff football so moods will be elevated either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 We need a surprise attack snowstorm...models just don't want to show one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 We need a surprise attack snowstorm...models just don't want to show one Just not 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Just not 1-3" Why not...I love those too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Why not...I love those too! LOL, so do I. Will take one at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 We need a surprise attack snowstorm...models just don't want to show one That seems like our only chance..... something that pops up 2 or 3 days beforehand. Looks as if the disturbance that was in line for the 15th-16th timeframe wont make it over the Apps. Screwjob again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Gfs op has come complete circle from torchy torch back to cool on the east with periods of amplification. Looks like a version of the euro ensemble runs. The longer we stay in this type of pattern the better chances of a sneak attack. Epo reload seems likely at thus point but we won't get pv'd because Canada warms. That's really no big deal though. Modest aob can snow in Jan. I'm interested in the 12z ens suites. It's far from perfect for dc snow but ops can present themselves at medium/short leads with fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 GEFS mean looks pretty good now d11-15. -epo building and some members are showing split flow. Trough planted in the east. Atlantic sucks less but still sucks. I have a hunch there will be a lot of phails to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Warmer air is making it in but this looks like a 5 hour torch rather than 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 12z EURO OP pattern looked good in LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 We need a surprise attack snowstorm...models just don't want to show one Wednesday. BOOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Wednesday. BOOM. Vort101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 18z gefs run was pretty sick. Pv3 teed up at the end. Aob from the 16th through the end and poised to get colder. Even blocking building across the pole and Greenland d14-15. It's too good to be true and it's a 20 member happy hour party so I'll leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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