Ian Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 yep. Good luck with this one bro. Its awesome when the entire snowstorm occurs with temps above freezing during the daytime the low transfers on top of me and explodes before jackpoting me with precip. who cares if temps are above freezing man. this is the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Dynamics and thundersnow with this setup. Not totally kidding. This is the kind of setup that bombs and pounds. But it's flawed like a mofo so I remain skeptical. A little more dig and separation from the low to the north and all bets are off. Nothing better to do right now anyways except track the flawed vort with little support from other models. . this is the 3rd cousin of the Jan 26,2011 storm. Not a big fan of low pressuring developing over DT for our storm! dig baby dig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 the low transfers on top of me and explodes before jackpoting me with precip. who cares if temps are above freezing man. this is the real deal. Looks totally realistic. Apply the se bias to precip maxes and you will be buried in mashed potatoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Looks totally realistic. Apply the se bias to precip maxes and you will be buried in mashed potatoes. gfssno.JPG After ignoring lessons from VortPass 101 last time I'm not writing this one off yet. It's definitely tricky... but I think almost every storm around here is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I'll throw a few chips in. What kind of start time we looking at? I'd much rather take my chances with moonshine (I did go to WVU) than sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 After ignoring lessons from VortPass 101 last time I'm not writing this one off yet. It's definitely tricky... but I think almost every storm around here is. It's really all we have tbh. The northern storm is a big flaw. The more disconnected they can be the better off we are. If that stupid low to the north wasn't there we would be pretty stoked right now. If the euro moves toward the gfs @ h5 then it gets more interesting. Right now it's fantasy eye candy. If the gfs has h5 right then things can get interesting in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Right where I usually am....congrats me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Def has the Jan 2011 storm look to it. I wouldn't mind a redux of that even if drier, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 GFS is definitely colder than last several runs. and there is this Adam Moyer @AdamPHLWx3h Late Jan will set up with a -EPO/+NAO like December... chance for NAO to go negative in February will lead to more wintry potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 It's really all we have tbh. The northern storm is a big flaw. The more disconnected they can be the better off we are. If that stupid low to the north wasn't there we would be pretty stoked right now. If the euro moves toward the gfs @ h5 then it gets more interesting. Right now it's fantasy eye candy. If the gfs has h5 right then things can get interesting in a hurry. Seems close to being a whole lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Im all in....nice vorticity to our south, 500 looks good, low strengthens as it reaches the coast and cold air is coming with it....I think this one is sold for an area wide 2-5" and a DC record breaker. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 GFS ens looks like it's trying hard to drum up something for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 4-5 gefs members look ok for us. Not supportive of the op overall. Northern storm appears more dominant on the members. But some good hits nonetheless. Bearish until the euro gets a better. Canadian kinda has it but not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 next winter = rockin or 97-98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 next winter = rockin BdotsvRCQAAv6wa.png or 97-98 I am ambivalent about that winter. It was nice cause it was warm, but there was no snow. I think we had 1 pity snow day for a half inch of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 GEFS is telling us all to step away from the ledge. Trough east ridge west re-amplifies late. Hints of a -nao too... ETA: I lied about the -nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The euro can't be terrible for Wed is it? Of course I'm looking at maps that look like cave man drawings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The euro can't be terrible for Wed is it? Of course I'm looking at maps that look like cave man drawings. Weak low... 1010 L near RDU at 120 to NE of BOS by about 200-300 miles at 144 at 1002... looks like its moving NE or ENE... prob would come off the coast near Norfolk... 850s are cold enough... -4 to -6 at 120 to -10 at 144... but thats all I can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Weak low... 1010 L near RDU at 120 to NE of BOS by about 200-300 miles at 144 at 1002... looks like its moving NE or ENE... prob would come off the coast near Norfolk... 850s are cold enough... -4 to -6 at 120 to -10 at 144... but thats all I can see That's all I get as well. 500 trough looks ok but its shape is all I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Euro looks very much like the gfs. 1008 off the mouth of the bay tracking the coast. Good precip max 95 corridor. Surface above freezing but mid-low 30's. I'm starting a thread... ETA: surface low looks to develop a bit south of the gfs. VA/NC border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Euro looks very much like the gfs. 1008 off the mouth of the bay tracking the coast. Good precip max 95 corridor. Surface above freezing but mid-low 30's. I'm starting a thread... ETA: surface low looks to develop a bit south of the gfs. VA/NC border... Yeah, I believe it is over C NC when it develops... good precip as in .3 to .5 or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Euro looks very much like the gfs. 1008 off the mouth of the bay tracking the coast. Good precip max 95 corridor. Surface above freezing but mid-low 30's. I'm starting a thread... ETA: surface low looks to develop a bit south of the gfs. VA/NC border... What does it look like for us 81'ers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Yeah, I believe it is over C NC when it develops... good precip as in .3 to .5 or so? .3 runs I95. Less west more east. Some .4-.5 stuff just se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 GFS leading the pack again Go America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 similar to GFS except Euro has this big inland rainstorm before hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 What does it look like for us 81'ers. pretty light as you get that far west but who cares. being on the nw side of a developing low like this can get the job done for all of us. Right now it's a 95 special. That will change or disappear and come back and disappear again. Feel pretty good now. Euro/GFS very similar now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 BTW, SLGT risk of severe in S MD tomorrow Ian... I-95 has 5% demarcation line 12z EURO has decent cold air shot Day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 BTW, SLGT risk of severe in S MD tomorrow Ian... I-95 has 5% demarcation line Already meh'ed in obs threadMy early call on this one is a Winchester to mapgirl jackpot after a few days of worrying about being fringed. Followed by Ji complaining DCA got .8 while he has 6" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 next winter = rockin BdotsvRCQAAv6wa.png or 97-98 97-98 had an awesome storm track, coastal after coastal that winter, we just had no cold air at all. The higher elevations from WV into PA actually did great that year, I was at PSU Hazleton and we had 3 or 4 big snows that winter where it was 32 and puking wet snow but just cold rain outside the higher elevations. I would take my chances with that setup again anytime and just hope for a bit more cold air to be around next time. I don't think the Nino alone was the problem that year, plus that nino was raging out of control, I doubt this gets to that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 well...the euro run after our mid week 1-3 flakes is pure dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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