usedtobe Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I don't see any protracted warm up and even if so the models have in the past show a tndency to move from one regime to the other. yes, another storm will pass to our west, mild us for for 2/3 days, and then return cold and repeat pattern. I will be shocked if Jan ends up a + valued month. After this week it would be really hard to end the month above normal. What we need to develop to get a lot of snow is a baffin bay block and low heights near the 50 50 location that the ens means are still forecast to have above normal heights. Right now I don't see that. We could still see snow but our chances of a really big one are greatly diminished without such a configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 EURO hinted at it today at 12z, now 18z GFS shows a quick hitting minor snowstorm (surface temps an issue though). It seems the models are starting to show some more energy on the backside of the trough which helps create this coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 if we dont get the MLK event...there is going to be a trolling spree like we have never seen on this board. Also, I think Euro is too inland with the Jan 14 event. we haven't seen an emergency scorched earth policy around here in a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 PV dropping in again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I think it was MLK weekend in 94 when we got about 3-6 " of snow followed by rain. Then the arctic front cane through leading to record cold. That sounds right... I just remember the cold... had -low/mid teens for several mornings week of 1/15/94 topped by 1/19's -15 Coldest I have recorded though was a -19 on 1/21/85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 If you take a blend of the top analogs from the Euro ENS/Euro OP, you get a pattern like the below for the January 19-23 period.....The GEFS, Candian ENS and GFS OP didn't have high correlation analogs, which is somewhat suggestive that the pattern they are showing is an unrealistic one..., scary +EPO once the PNA breaks down, given the lack of a -NAO... For DCA, of the 7 analogs, 3 had a T, 3 had a cartopper, and 1 had a ~3" storm....Average lowest Max for the period was 31 which is a -12 max....Most had a warm shot before or after or during...cold shot was 1-3 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 If you take a blend of the top analogs from the Euro ENS/Euro OP, you get a pattern like the below for the January 19-23 period.....The GEFS, Candian ENS and GFS OP didn't have high correlation analogs, which is somewhat suggestive that the pattern they are showing is an unrealistic one..., scary +EPO once the PNA breaks down, given the lack of a -NAO... For DCA, of the 7 analogs, 3 had a T, 3 had a cartopper, and 1 had a ~3" storm....Average lowest Max for the period was 31 which is a -12 max....Most had a warm shot before or after or during...cold shot was 1-3 days... 11-15pattern.PNG analogs off the Euro or GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I don't see any protracted warm up and even if so the models have in the past show a tndency to move from one regime to the other. yes, another storm will pass to our west, mild us for for 2/3 days, and then return cold and repeat pattern. I will be shocked if Jan ends up a + valued month. As Wes said, with our start, it will be very tough...I think we are around -2 at the midway point, then we see what the 2nd half brings...I'd guess Normal to -1 for the month right now, but that is low confidence...it wouldn't shock me to have a + January...I expect a mostly warm one from here on out, but I'd lean negative based on the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 analogs off the Euro or GFS? Euro/Euro ENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Euro/Euro ENS meh....I was hoping you were going to say GFS, however weak they may be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 meh....I was hoping you were going to say GFS, however weak they may be you starting the 1/15 thread? i could see a 1-2" event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 you starting the 1/15 thread? i could see a 1-2" event I vote no. Surface is terrible. All the snow falls above freezing. Stupid low to the north screws it all up. I know it could evolve differently with more amp and a short period of caa but right now it's a non event in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I vote no. Surface is terrible. All the snow falls above freezing. Stupid low to the north screws it all up. I know it could evolve differently with more amp and a short period of caa but right now it's a non event in my eyes. yeah...MLK1 looks better...hard to say when exactly...i'd lean more toward 20-21....though the analogs suggest very small as of now, though we do get something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 you starting the 1/15 thread? i could see a 1-2" event Something there on the Euro? All I see on the GFS is a clipperish system riding in from the great NW. If that's all there is I'll go with 0 to 0 as my initial call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 These are definitely low probability thread the needle storms, but it's possible one comes through the trough just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 you starting the 1/15 thread? i could see a 1-2" event I vote no. Surface is terrible. All the snow falls above freezing. Stupid low to the north screws it all up. I know it could evolve differently with more amp and a short period of caa but right now it's a non event in my eyes. I agree with Bob, too early now, but I sure hope it morphs into something to at least follow before the mundane weather has everybody at each others throats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 These are definitely low probability thread the needle storms, but it's possible one comes through the trough just right. Yea, a big storm that snows on us needs everything to come together just right. On the flip side the pattern is pretty good for a modest event. It's going to be a rollercoaster around here for the better part of a week. If we walk away with another modest event I'll be happy. If I close Jan with over 10" on the season then I may bust low with my 15" best case back yard scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I'm writing outlook article tomorrow. I was hoping they'd get closer together. I'm gonna be accused of being wishy washy. People will forget I was very bullish on the cold and somewhat bullish about the snow chances during Jan 1-7 and was fairly confident of a warm to follow. Right now I'm I have no confidence though I still think there is a window around MLK weekend. Two things I don't like about the euro ens mean is it keeps showing below normal pressures across the region day after day on the means and the stinking high heights near and just south of nova scotia. Not sure what I'll write tomorrow. Not envious of you there. 18z gfs continues to paint a ghastly picture for snowlovers across the country. It looks semi ok for next weekend but after that....ugh. I'm not sure why they euro/gefs camps are diverging so bad. I understand them being different but right now they look like they are written with 2 completely different programs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The model quandry is this. One model is emphasizing that ts sees no real change in the pattern. The other believes that after such an extreme cold spell that the rubber band must snap the other way. In this case I think persistence continues to win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The model quandry is this. One model is emphasizing that ts sees no real change in the pattern. The other believes that after such an extreme cold spell that the rubber band must snap the other way. In this case I think persistence continues to win out. I hope your right and it's logical but the gfs refuses to budge and that's unusual. It's not like it had some outlier run and then came back. 4+ ops and ensemble runs in a row continue to show the same thing. 0z run tonight is another disaster d10+. General rule of thumb is to blend guidance but right now that's like trying to keep oil and water together. Maybe the gefs mean looks better but I kinda doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I hope your right and it's logical but the gfs refuses to budge and that's unusual. It's not like it had some outlier run and then came back. 4+ ops and ensemble runs in a row continue to show the same thing. 0z run tonight is another disaster d10+. General rule of thumb is to blend guidance but right now that's like trying to keep oil and water separate. Maybe the gefs mean looks better but I kinda doubt it. given the choice between the 2 camps, GFS/GEFS and Euro/Euro ENS, I'm happy to be with the Euro BUT............dang GFS has not been bad this year and I think, and I could be wrong, but the Euro seems to have caved more to the GFS than vice versa so I'm far from confident vs. any other year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I hope your right and it's logical but the gfs refuses to budge and that's unusual. It's not like it had some outlier run and then came back. 4+ ops and ensemble runs in a row continue to show the same thing. 0z run tonight is another disaster d10+. General rule of thumb is to blend guidance but right now that's like trying to keep oil and water separate. Maybe the gefs mean looks better but I kinda doubt it. The GFS/GEFS is probably wrong.....which is good for us...I think what the Euro/euro ens is advertising is more transitory than a wholesale change, but I dont think we have the kind of epic torch the GFS is advertising...GFS has us in the 50s and 60s for almost a week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 given the choice between the 2 camps, GFS/GEFS and Euro/Euro ENS, I'm happy to be with the Euro BUT............dang GFS has not been bad this year and I think, and I could be wrong, but the Euro seems to have caved more to the GFS than vice versa so I'm far from confident vs. any other year I'm not sure what to believe either. We've been at this for years and history says to bias the euro when at odds. The weenie side of me says to follow that rule for obvious reasons. But man it hard to totally discount the steadiness. Gfs is going astray post truncation so the euro has better resolution so there is that. We'll know in a couple days either way. On another note. Ind euro ensemble members are showing snow MLK weekend. Definitely a minority (10 or so iirc) but enough to keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The GFS/GEFS is probably wrong.....which is good for us...I think what the Euro/euro ens is advertising is more transitory than a wholesale change, but I dont think we have the kind of epic torch the GFS is advertising...GFS has us in the 50s and 60s for almost a week...I agree but the gefs raises some hairs on the neck. One thing I like about the euro ens is holding the pv near hudson in general. That's been a persistent feature all met winter so it makes sense. Euro weeklies reload the epo ridge week 3 but I'm not sure how to reliable they can possibly be at such long leads so I don't put much stock. One ironic thing about this winter I really like is that we've had quite variable weather but the general lw pattern hasn't been variable at all. Waxing and waning of the epo has been the only story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Euro is near miss day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Euro is near miss day 8 day 6 looks pretty darn close too EDIT: in fact, if it wasn't for your day 8 miss, day 6 would likely be a hit as day 8 is acting as a kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Day 5 is interesting on the GFS ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 6z GFS gives us some snow day 5-6 it's the same sneaky little storm that's been on the mode for the past few days it 'looks" to be the same day 6 system that sneaks under us per Euro, but that's because the Euro has its day 8 storm a lot closer to it than the GFS shows the kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I'm not sure what to believe either. We've been at this for years and history says to bias the euro when at odds. The weenie side of me says to follow that rule for obvious reasons. But man it hard to totally discount the steadiness. Gfs is going astray post truncation so the euro has better resolution so there is that. We'll know in a couple days either way. On another note. Ind euro ensemble members are showing snow MLK weekend. Definitely a minority (10 or so iirc) but enough to keep hope alive. Just look at the 500 ht spaghetti charts beyond next weekend. Hard to have much faith in the GFS when there is no clustering of the individual ens members...literally all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 ya..these DC only storms always work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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