snow. Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 It redevelops well south but the primary is so strong it doesn't matter. Right in between the gfs and euro is a big storm for us. Blend is the smart call right? Lol Pretty sure someone gets a major storm here. Maybe not our subforum but we may end up being slightly happy. I don't see the secondary...but it's late....looks like just a strong primary on a Cleveland to Rochester to Burlington track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 euro plows a low to our west..greater metro area gets 1-3" before we all flip to rain lol not one model has shown us an all snow event in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 lol not one model has shown us an all snow event in years they're hard to get....those 3-4" storms that gave us school closings as kids, probably mixed or changed over and we just dont remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 they're hard to get....those 3-4" storms that gave us school closings as kids, probably mixed or changed over and we just dont remember i am starting to wonder if we will ever see a snowstorm again....its really been like 3 years dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I don't see the secondary...but it's late....looks like just a strong primary on a Cleveland to Rochester to Burlington trackIt's just noise bit I'm seeing a sub 1k surface low in far ne sc @ 216 and 988 off of oc @ 222. Totally overpowered by the primary so it's insignificant either way verbatim. I'm not sure the last time if ever that I've seen sub 500 heights kissing the mason Dixon. But wow, it's an extreme run. This threat is likely threadworthy soon but the peaks and valleys of emotions will make northern Nevada look flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 day 10 is historic cold...looks like 1pm temp of around 12 at DCA, and -12 at Indianapolis Ferocious wind chills with that 958 low over the St. Lawrence Seaway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Merry Xmas everyone. 6Z is wretched with nothing but a warm rainstorm over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Merry Xmas everyone. 6Z is wretched with nothing but a warm rainstorm over the next 10 days. Merry Christmas to you and everyone else. GFS has gone through a pretty massive change for Sunday . Kinda makes you nervous about putting faith in it at longer leads. I can't see the ens members for Sunday on this 6z run so I don't know if it's an outlier. I don't like the low in Michigan that is now positioned about a 1000 miles different that it was at 12z but I do like seeing that coast hugging low to our se. Put that there enough times this year and we'll cash in on it. Still, awfully big changes in a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Looks like 6z wants to pop a negatively tilted coastal at the end of the run that would rival 2010. Super cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 GFS & EURO starting to converge on an idea of a major, major low in early Jan, now the question is track, we have a semblance of a block, and +PNA, so this time we might see trends in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 they're hard to get....those 3-4" storms that gave us school closings as kids, probably mixed or changed over and we just dont remember Hmm..not that hard to get. I lived in Westminster for many years, and now the upper eastern shore for quite a while, and in both places (altho climo is quite different) there have been plenty of all snow events over the years. Some people just continue to have unrealistic expectations, despite living in this region their whole lives. There are always gonna be more rain/mix events than pure snow during the winter in these parts. Edit: just off the top of my head, even in the "lean" winters since 2009-10, I remember 3, 3 inch+ all snow events: 5.5 inches in the day after Xmas storm that mostly missed DC-Balt, last winter's over-performing clipper (eastern MD,DE,SNJ), 3.5", and last March storm- 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Hmm..not that hard to get. I lived in Westminster for many years, and now the upper eastern shore for quite a while, and in both places (altho climo is quite different) there have been plenty of all snow events over the years. Some people just continue to have unrealistic expectations, despite living in this region their whole lives. There are always gonna be more rain/mix events than pure snow during the winter in these parts. Edit: just off the top of my head, even in the "lean" winters since 2009-10, I remember 3, 3 inch+ all snow events: 5.5 inches in the day after Xmas storm that mostly missed DC-Balt, last winter's over-performing clipper (eastern MD,DE,SNJ), 3.5", and last March storm- 5 inches. I dont think that there are unrealistic expectations. The fact that it can't snow more then 2 inches at DCA for like three years is anomalous. Hold on that is an understatement... it is just plain devastating for snow lovers.. heartbreaking. I know some of the surrounding areas have done a little better...you may have lucked out here and there...but that DCA snow drought is the elephant in the room... it is epicenter for all that has been wrong. There should have been at least one widespread 2-4 inch event that does the job. That is not too much to ask for. That is not unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I dont think that there are unrealistic expectations. The fact that it can't snow more then 2 inches at DCA for like three years is anomalous. Hold on that is an understatement... it is just plain devastating for snow lovers.. heartbreaking. I know some of the surrounding areas have done a little better...you may have lucked out here and there...but that DCA snow drought is the elephant in the room... it is epicenter for all that has been wrong. There should have been at least one widespread 2-4 inch event that does the job. That is not too much to ask for. That is not unrealistic. Agreed on the DC snow drought. Point was, we do see moderate, all snow events...they aren't that rare, outside of this recent odd streak. But even so, we will see rain or slop events more often in most winters. That is what should be expected, outside of an anomalous winter like 09-10, where the pattern was near ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 GFS & EURO starting to converge on an idea of a major, major low in early Jan, now the question is track, we have a semblance of a block, and +PNA, so this time we might see trends in the right direction. Euro suggesting the low cuts to the Lakes...most likely rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Have you guys seen this page? Has 20 members plus op and the mean. I'd never seen this one. Pretty cool. It's going to be interesting to see what the gfs does with Sunday, what was a dry day about 18 hours ago. Here's the link and a screenshot. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Euro suggesting the low cuts to the Lakes...most likely rain here. You're determined aren't you? Keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Euro suggesting the low cuts to the Lakes...most likely rain here. ...It shows snow on the front end, yes I know what it shows lol, I'm saying we have a better things going right now so it could trend in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Sunday looks like Jan 2000 without a lick of cold air.. what a kick in the balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Have you guys seen this page? Has 20 members plus op and the mean. I'd never seen this one. Pretty cool. It's going to be interesting to see what the gfs does with Sunday, what was a dry day about 18 hours ago. Here's the link and a screenshot. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/ With the low to our north it will be hard to get any cold air in time to do anything with the low. The ensembles that show precip are pretty rainy for us....even for you it doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 A step in the right direction? http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013122512&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 A step in the right direction? http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013122512&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=216 Well, It says yes to cold air at that time frame and no to a storm. BUT given the model's tendency to overdue H pressures to the north, I'd say this is a much better solution than 6z. At least the southern stream is relatively active in that timeframe. If you are looking at gross statistics just for the GFS over the past 2 days of runs for the hour 216 storm.. 7/8 runs have shown some type of winter precip. 4/8 runs have shown all frozen 3/8 runs have shown some frozen and some rain 1/8 runs have essentially shown a non-event As far as a trend- I'm not sure this is one now especially since the euro just went bonkers on precip at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 With the low to our north it will be hard to get any cold air in time to do anything with the low. The ensembles that show precip are pretty rainy for us....even for you it doesn't look good. Oh yeah I know. What got my attention was the fact that on yesterday's 12z ens there wasn't a member that had precip within 400 miles. I'll bet today's 12z ens will have precip here on practically every member. That's a pretty big change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 With the low to our north it will be hard to get any cold air in time to do anything with the low. The ensembles that show precip are pretty rainy for us....even for you it doesn't look good. Yea, that one never stood a chance. I wish it would stay offshore like it was modeled days ago. We've been prog'd to be warm with the low to the north for a lot of runs now. Nothing can change that. I think nye bears watching. Sneaky vort rotating around below us. It's too far south on the 12z run but i never ignore vorts passing below us. It would be a localized event and pretty small but it could produce some accum snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Where is the desert low the gfs had for days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Yea, that one never stood a chance. I wish it would stay offshore like it was modeled days ago. We've been prog'd to be warm with the low to the north for a lot of runs now. Nothing can change that. I think nye bears watching. Sneaky vort rotating around below us. It's too far south on the 12z run but i never ignore vorts passing below us. It would be a localized event and pretty small but it could produce some accum snow. A change that big in such a short time relatively close in time has to give anybody looking at storms beyond New Years a good deal of pause. Plus, the weather on Sunday has to play a role in the weather beyond.It's a huge change in 24 hours time. And this isn't just an op change. It's an entire ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Yea, that one never stood a chance. I wish it would stay offshore like it was modeled days ago. We've been prog'd to be warm with the low to the north for a lot of runs now. Nothing can change that. I think nye bears watching. Sneaky vort rotating around below us. It's too far south on the 12z run but i never ignore vorts passing below us. It would be a localized event and pretty small but it could produce some accum snow. It's worth watching, as you say it would be a light event even if it sharpened some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Where is the desert low the gfs had for days? It made a wrong turn at Albuquerque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Snow is not happening this winter. It's either cold dry or cold and rain or warm and Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 A step in the right direction? http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013122512&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=216 I'd say yes as the 500 has room to be sharper than it is. However, the way the progs are jumping around at that time range, I wouldn't take any model forecasts very seriously for a particular day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Snow is not happening this winter. It's either cold dry or cold and rain or warm and Rain.Aren't you at like 200% normal for December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.